Drew Butera

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	HAG	A	355	24	13	0	5	38	42	72	1	0	-2.8	.186	.297	.281	-.615	.137	.216	.197	.131	-52.0	93-C -5	-3.3
2007	SLU	A+	210	22	14	0	5	22	24	28	0	1	-1.7	.258	.348	.418	-.290	.203	.281	.332	.212	-10.8	54-C -5	-0.8
2007	BIN	AA	121	7	2	0	1	4	2	22	0	0	-0.5	.188	.208	.231	-.668	.161	.182	.203	.078	-19.4	30-C 1	-1.1
2007	NBR	AA	56	3	3	1	0	3	5	5	0	0	-2.3	.260	.327	.360	-.322	.216	.273	.314	.204	-3.4	16-C -1	-0.2
2008	NBR	AA	351	39	18	1	7	39	35	55	0	1	-4.6	.219	.308	.354	-.331	.190	.269	.323	.208	-21.3	90-C 1	-0.3

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:52 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	362	31	16	1	9	37	31	76	0	0	-1.7	.214	.290	.349	-.216	.216	.294	.365	.232	-3.8	87-C 2	1.4
75^o	338	22	13	0	6	31	26	74	0	0	-1.4	.188	.258	.295	-.363	.189	.262	.309	.199	-15.1	81-C 1	0.1
60^o	326	19	12	0	5	28	24	73	0	0	-1.3	.177	.245	.272	-.425	.178	.248	.285	.183	-19.3	79-C 0	-0.4
50^o	318	17	12	0	4	27	22	72	0	0	-1.3	.169	.236	.257	-.465	.171	.240	.270	.171	-21.7	77-C 0	-0.7
40^o	309	15	11	0	4	25	21	71	0	0	-1.2	.163	.228	.243	-.502	.164	.231	.255	.160	-23.8	75-C 0	-1.0
25^o	295	12	10	0	3	22	19	69	0	0	-1.1	.153	.216	.224	-.555	.155	.219	.235	.142	-26.4	72-C -1	-1.4
10^o	243	6	7	0	1	13	13	61	0	0	-0.8	.126	.182	.168	-.708	.127	.184	.176	.071	-30.4	60-C -2	-2.1
Weighted Mean	315	17	11	0	4	27	22	71	0	0	-1.3	.169	.236	.257	-.455	.171	.239	.269	.171	-21.3	76-C 1	-0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
29%	42%	45%	28%	1.03

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 25)	315	17	11	0	4	27	22	71	0	0	-1.3	.169	.236	.257	-.455	.171	.239	.269	.171	-21.3	76-C 1	-0.5
2010 (age 26)	281	15	11	0	4	24	21	65	0	0	-0.9	.177	.246	.266	-.419	.180	.253	.282	.181	-13.5	69-C 0	-0.3
2011 (age 27)	324	18	12	0	4	28	23	74	0	0	-0.7	.174	.240	.261	-.439	.178	.247	.276	.175	-12.0	79-C 0	0.0
2012 (age 28)	254	12	9	0	3	21	17	60	0	0	-0.5	.169	.236	.258	-.452	.173	.243	.273	.172	-8.9	63-C -1	-0.2
2013 (age 29)	307	16	11	1	4	27	23	70	0	0	-0.4	.167	.238	.260	-.448	.171	.244	.276	.175	-7.0	75-C 2	0.0
2014 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.187	.260	.290
vs RHP	.166	.229	.246
Split	+.022	+.031	+.043
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-17.6	1.0	-0.5	$400,000	-20.9	0.0
2010	-13.5	0.0	-0.3	$400,000	-13.5	0.1
2011	-17.0	0.0	0.0	$400,000	-11.1	0.1
2012	-13.9	-1.0	-0.2	$400,000	-8.8	0.2
2013	-16.3	2.0	0.0	$400,000	-6.0	0.2
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	$50,000	0.0	0.9

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.199	.171	.142	.171
2010	.206	.186	.151	.181
2011	.223	.172	.140	.175
2012	.221	.182	.128	.172
2013	.223	.192	.092	.175
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	28%	0%	29%
2010	48%	19%	33%
2011	57%	39%	36%
2012	67%	50%	34%
2013	75%	60%	32%
2014	80%	72%	26%
2015	92%	82%	25%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

66

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Larry Owen	1981	61		11	Mark Mortimer	2001	50
2	Wyatt Toregas	2008	58		12	Javi Herrera	2007	50
3	John Posey	1990	57		13	Mike Basso	1990	50
4	Adan Millan	1998	54		14	Dan Conway	2005	49
5	Jim Foster	1997	52		15	Scooter Tucker	1992	49
6	David Lindstrom	2000	51		16	Mike Daniel	1995	49
7	Steven Liddle	1985	51		17	Douglas Simunic	1981	48
8	Marc Sullivan	1984	51		18	Kirk Pierce	1999	48
9	Pedro Lopez	1995	50		19	Mike Moyle	1997	48
10	Brian Luderer	2004	50		20	Dusty Brown	2008	48

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