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He's probably very handsome. Mitch Canham
San Diego Padres [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 24
6' 2"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 EUG A- 133 20 4 1 2 18 11 35 5 2 1.2 .293 .379 .397 -.512 .184 .227 .248 .154 -26.0 21-C -2 -1.7
2008 LEL A+ 488 65 28 5 8 81 66 73 13 1 1.6 .285 .382 .434 -.219 .219 .309 .340 .233 -13.5 103-C -16 -1.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:01 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 580 72 30 4 9 53 62 131 9 5 1.1 .241 .326 .369 -.071 .252 .336 .402 .258 13.6 136-C -5 3.1
75o 540 58 26 4 7 46 55 125 8 4 1.0 .228 .310 .342 -.147 .238 .319 .373 .243 3.0 127-C -5 2.0
60o 509 50 23 3 6 41 50 121 7 4 0.9 .218 .299 .323 -.202 .227 .307 .352 .232 -3.8 120-C -5 1.3
50o 486 44 21 3 5 37 47 117 7 4 0.8 .211 .290 .309 -.241 .220 .298 .338 .224 -8.1 115-C -5 0.8
40o 472 41 20 3 5 35 44 115 7 3 0.8 .207 .285 .301 -.265 .216 .293 .329 .218 -10.5 112-C -5 0.5
25o 420 31 16 2 3 28 37 105 6 3 0.7 .193 .267 .273 -.347 .201 .275 .298 .199 -17.5 100-C -4 -0.4
10o 330 18 11 1 1 18 26 87 4 2 0.5 .171 .241 .231 -.468 .179 .247 .253 .166 -23.1 80-C -4 -1.3
Weighted Mean 492 45 22 3 5 39 47 118 7 4 0.8 .213 .292 .313 -.273 .222 .301 .341 .225 -3.7 116-C -5 0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

43%

63%

22%

9%

1.10

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 24) 492 45 22 3 5 39 47 118 7 4 0.8 .213 .292 .313 -.273 .222 .301 .341 .225 -3.7 116-C -5 0.9
2010 (age 25) 398 34 17 2 5 32 39 93 5 3 0.7 .214 .294 .316 -.238 .221 .298 .340 .227 -4.2 95-C -5 0.6
2011 (age 26) 380 31 17 2 5 30 37 91 5 3 0.5 .211 .292 .316 -.245 .217 .296 .340 .226 -3.9 91-C -4 0.6
2012 (age 27) 393 33 17 2 5 31 38 93 5 3 0.5 .212 .293 .315 -.244 .218 .296 .339 .226 -3.5 94-C -6 0.5
2013 (age 28) 356 28 15 2 5 27 34 87 4 2 0.4 .204 .284 .309 -.272 .210 .288 .333 .220 -4.1 86-C -4 0.3
2014 (age 29) 383 29 15 2 5 30 36 92 4 2 0.4 .200 .278 .297 -.303 .205 .282 .320 .212 -4.9 92-C -7 0.0
2015 (age 30) 322 24 13 2 4 27 30 75 3 2 0.3 .201 .281 .302 -.290 .207 .284 .325 .216 -3.2 78-C -4 0.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .186 .266 .264
vs RHP .220 .304 .338
Split -.034 -.037 -.074
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -5.5 -5.0 0.9 $500,000 -7.6 1.9
2010 -3.8 -5.0 0.6 $400,000 -8.1 1.5
2011 -4.1 -4.0 0.6 $475,000 -6.2 2.0
2012 -4.3 -6.0 0.5 $400,000 -6.1 1.7
2013 -5.9 -4.0 0.3 $400,000 -5.6 1.6
2014 -9.0 -7.0 0.0 $400,000 -7.3 0.0
2015 -6.6 -4.0 0.1 $400,000 -4.3 0.5
Peak 3.0 $2,450,000 0.0 8.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .243 .224 .199 .225
2010 .252 .225 .200 .227
2011 .247 .224 .197 .226
2012 .253 .221 .194 .226
2013 .239 .227 .190 .220
2014 .235 .217 .193 .212
2015 .250 .227 .202 .216


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 9% 0% 43%
2010 25% 14% 41%
2011 44% 24% 37%
2012 49% 33% 36%
2013 61% 42% 29%
2014 64% 51% 24%
2015 78% 60% 25%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

58

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Carl Nichols 1987 51 11 Kinnis Pledger 1993 41
2 Andy Skeels 1990 48 12 Darrell Whitmore 1993 41
3 Chris Pritchett 1994 46 13 Andy Fox 1995 41
4 Paul Bako 1997 46 14 Mike Durant 1994 41
5 Chad Kreuter 1989 45 15 Doug Newstrom 1996 40
6 Danny Ardoin 1999 44 16 Chris Durkin 1995 40
7 John Baker 2005 43 17 Derek Lee 1991 40
8 Jayhawk Owens 1993 43 18 Ben Copeland 2008 39
9 Lou Palmisano 2007 43 19 Scott Hatteberg 1994 39
10 Scooter Tucker 1991 42 20 Justin Knoedler 2005 38

Player Comments

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2008

Mitch Canham has only been catching for three years, which means physically he's a very young 23. The Pads' supplemental first-round pick has a good approach at the plate and, as the catcher for back-to-back College World Series teams, has major intangibles points


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