Mitch Canham

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:01 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	580	72	30	4	9	53	62	131	9	5	1.1	.241	.326	.369	-.071	.252	.336	.402	.258	13.6	136-C -5	3.1
75^o	540	58	26	4	7	46	55	125	8	4	1.0	.228	.310	.342	-.147	.238	.319	.373	.243	3.0	127-C -5	2.0
60^o	509	50	23	3	6	41	50	121	7	4	0.9	.218	.299	.323	-.202	.227	.307	.352	.232	-3.8	120-C -5	1.3
50^o	486	44	21	3	5	37	47	117	7	4	0.8	.211	.290	.309	-.241	.220	.298	.338	.224	-8.1	115-C -5	0.8
40^o	472	41	20	3	5	35	44	115	7	3	0.8	.207	.285	.301	-.265	.216	.293	.329	.218	-10.5	112-C -5	0.5
25^o	420	31	16	2	3	28	37	105	6	3	0.7	.193	.267	.273	-.347	.201	.275	.298	.199	-17.5	100-C -4	-0.4
10^o	330	18	11	1	1	18	26	87	4	2	0.5	.171	.241	.231	-.468	.179	.247	.253	.166	-23.1	80-C -4	-1.3
Weighted Mean	492	45	22	3	5	39	47	118	7	4	0.8	.213	.292	.313	-.273	.222	.301	.341	.225	-3.7	116-C -5	0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
43%	63%	22%	9%	1.10

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 24)	492	45	22	3	5	39	47	118	7	4	0.8	.213	.292	.313	-.273	.222	.301	.341	.225	-3.7	116-C -5	0.9
2010 (age 25)	398	34	17	2	5	32	39	93	5	3	0.7	.214	.294	.316	-.238	.221	.298	.340	.227	-4.2	95-C -5	0.6
2011 (age 26)	380	31	17	2	5	30	37	91	5	3	0.5	.211	.292	.316	-.245	.217	.296	.340	.226	-3.9	91-C -4	0.6
2012 (age 27)	393	33	17	2	5	31	38	93	5	3	0.5	.212	.293	.315	-.244	.218	.296	.339	.226	-3.5	94-C -6	0.5
2013 (age 28)	356	28	15	2	5	27	34	87	4	2	0.4	.204	.284	.309	-.272	.210	.288	.333	.220	-4.1	86-C -4	0.3
2014 (age 29)	383	29	15	2	5	30	36	92	4	2	0.4	.200	.278	.297	-.303	.205	.282	.320	.212	-4.9	92-C -7	0.0
2015 (age 30)	322	24	13	2	4	27	30	75	3	2	0.3	.201	.281	.302	-.290	.207	.284	.325	.216	-3.2	78-C -4	0.1

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.186	.266	.264
vs RHP	.220	.304	.338
Split	-.034	-.037	-.074
LgAvg	-.035	-.040	-.079

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-5.5	-5.0	0.9	$500,000	-7.6	1.9
2010	-3.8	-5.0	0.6	$400,000	-8.1	1.5
2011	-4.1	-4.0	0.6	$475,000	-6.2	2.0
2012	-4.3	-6.0	0.5	$400,000	-6.1	1.7
2013	-5.9	-4.0	0.3	$400,000	-5.6	1.6
2014	-9.0	-7.0	0.0	$400,000	-7.3	0.0
2015	-6.6	-4.0	0.1	$400,000	-4.3	0.5
Peak			3.0	$2,450,000	0.0	8.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.243	.224	.199	.225
2010	.252	.225	.200	.227
2011	.247	.224	.197	.226
2012	.253	.221	.194	.226
2013	.239	.227	.190	.220
2014	.235	.217	.193	.212
2015	.250	.227	.202	.216

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	9%	0%	43%
2010	25%	14%	41%
2011	44%	24%	37%
2012	49%	33%	36%
2013	61%	42%	29%
2014	64%	51%	24%
2015	78%	60%	25%

58

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Carl Nichols	1987	51		11	Kinnis Pledger	1993	41
2	Andy Skeels	1990	48		12	Darrell Whitmore	1993	41
3	Chris Pritchett	1994	46		13	Andy Fox	1995	41
4	Paul Bako	1997	46		14	Mike Durant	1994	41
5	Chad Kreuter	1989	45		15	Doug Newstrom	1996	40
6	Danny Ardoin	1999	44		16	Chris Durkin	1995	40
7	John Baker	2005	43		17	Derek Lee	1991	40
8	Jayhawk Owens	1993	43		18	Ben Copeland	2008	39
9	Lou Palmisano	2007	43		19	Scott Hatteberg	1994	39
10	Scooter Tucker	1991	42		20	Justin Knoedler	2005	38

Player Comments

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2008

Mitch Canham has only been catching for three years, which means physically he's a very young 23. The Pads' supplemental first-round pick has a good approach at the plate and, as the catcher for back-to-back College World Series teams, has major intangibles points

Historical Stats