<< PECOTA Home Player Search     
');// -->

He's probably very handsome. Daniel Carroll
Seattle Mariners [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Center Field
Bats R
Age 19
6' 1"
175 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 MRN 0R 238 39 9 6 0 24 27 56 27 11 1.1 .323 .415 .428 .280 .194 .255 .259 .184 -49.9 24-CF -1 -0.2
2007 EVE 1A 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 1 -1.5 .176 .176 .176 -.593 .176 .176 .176 .074 -5.6 -0.2


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/19/08 1:20 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 498 56 22 4 4 28 35 142 21 9 1.6 .231 .289 .324 -.243 .233 .292 .345 .230 -15.1 118-CF -5 1.4
75o 472 45 19 4 3 26 31 139 19 9 1.4 .215 .270 .296 -.323 .217 .273 .315 .212 -23.8 112-CF -5 0.5
60o 463 43 18 3 3 25 29 139 19 9 1.3 .209 .264 .287 -.348 .212 .267 .306 .206 -26.3 110-CF -4 0.3
50o 455 40 18 3 2 24 28 138 18 9 1.3 .204 .258 .279 -.373 .207 .261 .297 .200 -28.6 108-CF -4 0.1
40o 446 37 17 3 2 24 27 137 17 9 1.2 .199 .252 .270 -.398 .201 .254 .287 .193 -30.9 106-CF -4 -0.2
25o 423 31 15 3 2 22 24 134 16 8 1.1 .188 .238 .250 -.454 .190 .240 .266 .177 -35.3 101-CF -4 -0.7
10o 382 23 11 2 1 19 19 128 13 8 0.9 .170 .216 .219 -.542 .172 .218 .233 .148 -40.4 91-CF -4 -1.3
Weighted Mean 454 38 17 3 2 24 27 140 18 9 1.2 .198 .250 .268 -.404 .200 .253 .285 .191 -31.7 107-CF -4 0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

64%

79%

15%

13%

1.08

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 19) 454 38 17 3 2 24 27 140 18 9 1.2 .198 .250 .268 -.404 .200 .253 .285 .191 -31.7 107-CF -4 0.2
2009 (age 20) 495 47 20 4 3 31 31 144 20 9 1.2 .210 .263 .290 -.345 .216 .270 .315 .206 -23.2 117-CF -3 0.7
2010 (age 21) 515 51 20 3 4 34 35 142 19 10 1.0 .209 .268 .292 -.335 .215 .275 .316 .209 -19.4 121-CF -3 0.7
2011 (age 22) 558 60 22 3 5 35 38 150 19 11 0.8 .218 .276 .304 -.300 .224 .283 .329 .216 -14.0 131-CF -4 0.8
2012 (age 23) 519 57 22 4 5 32 34 131 17 9 0.7 .229 .284 .325 -.251 .236 .292 .352 .226 -8.1 122-CF -4 0.9
2013 (age 24) 559 68 26 5 6 42 39 132 19 9 0.6 .238 .295 .342 -.206 .244 .302 .371 .237 -4.4 131-CF -3 0.9
2014 (age 25) 473 57 21 4 5 33 33 110 18 8 0.4 .250 .307 .352 -.163 .256 .315 .382 .246 -1.6 112-CF -3 1.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .214 .268 .296
vs RHP .194 .244 .258
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -1.4 1.6 0.2 $450,000 -29.5 0.0
2009 -0.8 1.5 0.7 $825,000 -19.7 0.2
2010 -0.6 1.3 0.7 $850,000 -16.2 0.0
2011 -0.3 1.1 0.8 $1,000,000 -11.4 0.0
2012 0.0 0.9 0.9 $1,150,000 -6.1 0.0
2013 0.2 0.8 0.9 $1,300,000 -2.4 1.5
2014 0.3 0.8 1.1 $1,625,000 0.1 1.4
Peak 5.1 $3,150,000 -0.4 5.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .212 .200 .177 .191
2009 .219 .196 .180 .206
2010 .225 .199 .181 .209
2011 .236 .212 .178 .216
2012 .250 .218 .196 .226
2013 .252 .233 .204 .237
2014 .270 .249 .222 .246


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 13% 0% 64%
2009 24% 9% 78%
2010 34% 20% 75%
2011 49% 34% 76%
2012 59% 49% 77%
2013 65% 59% 79%
2014 67% 66% 81%

Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.