Welington Castillo

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Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	CUB	Rk	28	4	0	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0.1	.192	.250	.192	-.878	.111	.143	.111	.000	-15.6		-0.8
2007	PEO	A	353	41	11	2	11	44	23	77	1	3	-3.9	.271	.334	.423	-.308	.217	.265	.336	.207	-20.0	82-C -1	-0.7
2008	DAY	A+	127	15	8	0	0	12	4	23	1	0	-2.8	.273	.299	.339	-.463	.213	.236	.262	.166	-13.7	28-C -5	-1.3
2008	TEN	AA	220	25	11	0	4	24	14	50	0	0	-1.5	.298	.362	.414	-.228	.244	.292	.346	.222	-6.9	48-C -4	-0.5

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:17 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	426	41	20	1	10	45	25	104	1	1	-1.6	.255	.307	.385	-.150	.252	.304	.385	.237	1.8	101-C -4	1.2
75^o	402	34	18	1	8	41	23	100	1	1	-1.5	.243	.293	.362	-.213	.240	.290	.362	.224	-4.2	96-C -4	0.7
60^o	375	28	16	1	7	37	20	94	1	1	-1.3	.230	.279	.336	-.281	.227	.276	.336	.209	-9.8	90-C -3	0.1
50^o	364	26	15	1	6	35	19	92	1	1	-1.3	.225	.273	.326	-.308	.222	.270	.326	.203	-11.8	87-C -3	0.0
40^o	349	23	14	1	5	32	18	89	1	1	-1.2	.218	.265	.314	-.342	.216	.263	.314	.195	-14.1	84-C -3	-0.4
25^o	330	20	13	1	4	30	17	85	1	1	-1.1	.210	.257	.299	-.382	.208	.254	.299	.185	-16.4	80-C -3	-0.6
10^o	277	13	10	0	3	23	13	74	1	1	-0.9	.191	.234	.262	-.482	.189	.232	.262	.156	-20.2	68-C -2	-1.1
Weighted Mean	384	28	16	1	6	37	21	97	1	1	-1.3	.227	.276	.331	-.272	.224	.273	.331	.205	-8.4	92-C -3	0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
39%	59%	20%	20%	1.09

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 22)	384	28	16	1	6	37	21	97	1	1	-1.3	.227	.276	.331	-.272	.224	.273	.331	.205	-8.4	92-C -3	0.1
2010 (age 23)	377	29	17	1	7	37	20	92	1	1	-1.1	.232	.281	.347	-.278	.226	.274	.342	.212	-6.7	90-C -3	0.4
2011 (age 24)	330	25	14	1	7	36	19	77	1	1	-0.9	.235	.286	.355	-.256	.229	.279	.350	.218	-4.2	80-C -4	0.3
2012 (age 25)	311	24	13	1	7	34	18	73	1	1	-0.6	.234	.287	.359	-.249	.228	.280	.354	.219	-2.9	75-C -2	0.4
2013 (age 26)	341	26	15	1	8	37	19	83	1	1	-0.6	.230	.282	.356	-.265	.224	.275	.351	.216	-3.6	82-C -4	0.2
2014 (age 27)	301	22	12	1	6	30	18	70	1	1	-0.4	.234	.284	.349	-.268	.228	.277	.344	.215	-2.8	73-C -3	0.2
2015 (age 28)	276	18	13	0	5	28	15	59	1	1	-0.3	.221	.271	.332	-.320	.216	.265	.328	.203	-3.7	68-C -3	0.1

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.245	.297	.364
vs RHP	.222	.268	.316
Split	+.023	+.030	+.048
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-11.9	-3.0	0.1	$400,000	-11.9	0.1
2010	-9.2	-3.0	0.4	$400,000	-9.5	0.7
2011	-6.4	-4.0	0.3	$400,000	-7.4	1.6
2012	-5.6	-2.0	0.4	$550,000	-4.3	1.9
2013	-7.2	-4.0	0.2	$400,000	-5.9	0.4
2014	-6.7	-3.0	0.2	$500,000	-3.8	0.4
2015	-9.2	-3.0	0.1	$400,000	-4.4	0.3
Peak			1.7	$1,350,000	-3.6	5.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.224	.203	.185	.205
2010	.233	.214	.187	.212
2011	.236	.217	.201	.218
2012	.251	.214	.198	.219
2013	.240	.221	.196	.216
2014	.239	.211	.195	.215
2015	.224	.206	.168	.203

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	20%	0%	39%
2010	27%	13%	48%
2011	38%	21%	47%
2012	56%	37%	36%
2013	58%	37%	41%
2014	69%	51%	35%
2015	77%	56%	31%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

64

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Robert Machado	1995	60		11	Eliezer Alfonzo	2001	52
2	Yorvit Torrealba	2000	59		12	Carlos Hernandez	1989	52
3	Jose Pena	1987	57		13	Luis Oliveros	2005	51
4	Gilberto Reyes	1986	57		14	Kelly Mann	1989	48
5	Ruben Rodriguez	1986	57		15	Fred Torres	2002	48
6	Wilfredo Tejada	1985	57		16	Andy Stewart	1993	47
7	Raul Santana	1994	56		17	Edgar Martinez	2003	46
8	Javier Cardona	1997	55		18	Yamid Haad	1999	46
9	Humberto Cota	2001	54		19	Sergio Mendez	1995	45
10	Carlos Zayas	1988	54		20	Juan Apodaca	2008	45

Player Comments

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2008

Welington Castillo was perhaps the best defensive catcher in the Midwest League last year. He's not going to be a stud, but he may have just enough line-drive power to become something interesting.