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He's probably very handsome. Jason Castro
Houston Astros [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 22
6' 3"
210 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 TCV A- 162 10 9 0 2 12 22 32 0 2 -1.2 .275 .383 .384 -.338 .193 .282 .297 .200 -19.8 26-C -2 -1.1


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/7/09 8:31 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 573 59 31 2 16 68 57 137 4 3 -0.6 .244 .323 .411 -.066 .247 .325 .422 .257 11.9 134-C -12 2.5
75o 551 50 28 2 14 61 53 137 4 2 -0.6 .230 .308 .379 -.146 .233 .310 .389 .242 1.3 129-C -11 1.6
60o 531 43 26 2 12 55 49 137 3 2 -0.6 .219 .295 .354 -.209 .222 .298 .363 .229 -6.6 125-C -10 0.8
50o 522 40 25 2 11 52 48 137 3 2 -0.5 .213 .289 .341 -.240 .216 .291 .350 .222 -10.3 123-C -9 0.5
40o 510 37 24 1 9 48 46 136 3 2 -0.5 .207 .283 .327 -.274 .210 .285 .336 .215 -14.2 120-C -9 0.1
25o 493 32 22 1 8 44 43 136 3 2 -0.5 .198 .273 .307 -.324 .201 .275 .315 .203 -19.5 116-C -8 -0.4
10o 420 18 15 1 3 25 33 129 2 2 -0.4 .167 .238 .236 -.500 .170 .239 .242 .154 -33.8 100-C -5 -1.9
Weighted Mean 530 40 25 2 10 52 48 140 3 2 -0.5 .210 .286 .334 -.259 .213 .288 .343 .217 -9.6 125-C -10 0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

59%

74%

16%

4%

0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 22) 530 40 25 2 10 52 48 140 3 2 -0.5 .210 .286 .334 -.259 .213 .288 .343 .217 -9.6 125-C -10 0.4
2010 (age 23) 518 42 26 2 11 50 47 125 4 2 -0.4 .221 .296 .354 -.221 .221 .294 .359 .228 -5.4 122-C -11 0.7
2011 (age 24) 535 47 26 2 12 55 52 126 3 2 -0.3 .228 .307 .369 -.178 .228 .305 .374 .237 -0.5 126-C -12 1.1
2012 (age 25) 453 37 23 1 10 46 46 105 3 2 -0.2 .229 .310 .371 -.169 .229 .308 .376 .239 0.3 107-C -10 1.0
2013 (age 26) 432 35 21 1 10 44 43 106 3 2 -0.1 .226 .309 .370 -.175 .226 .307 .375 .238 -0.2 103-C -10 1.0
2014 (age 27) 382 28 18 1 9 38 39 90 2 2 0.0 .223 .304 .362 -.196 .222 .302 .367 .234 -1.4 91-C -8 0.5
2015 (age 28) 428 33 21 1 11 44 42 99 3 2 0.0 .217 .297 .364 -.209 .217 .295 .369 .231 -2.3 102-C -9 0.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .183 .258 .284
vs RHP .218 .298 .362
Split -.035 -.040 -.078
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -16.1 -10.0 0.4 $400,000 -11.5 0.6
2010 -10.4 -11.0 0.7 $400,000 -9.1 1.7
2011 -5.5 -12.0 1.1 $1,125,000 -4.6 2.4
2012 -3.9 -10.0 1.0 $1,425,000 -2.3 3.2
2013 -4.1 -10.0 1.0 $1,325,000 -3.4 3.1
2014 -5.3 -8.0 0.5 $875,000 -3.4 1.5
2015 -7.1 -9.0 0.6 $1,000,000 -4.1 3.4
Peak 4.9 $3,975,000 -3.4 15.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .242 .222 .203 .217
2010 .253 .228 .198 .228
2011 .264 .232 .211 .237
2012 .268 .233 .212 .239
2013 .274 .238 .204 .238
2014 .266 .236 .206 .234
2015 .259 .240 .187 .231


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 4% 0% 59%
2010 6% 4% 61%
2011 19% 6% 69%
2012 26% 15% 66%
2013 24% 18% 61%
2014 47% 33% 58%
2015 53% 34% 59%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

25

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Fredric Polka 1987 40 11 David Parrish 2001 23
2 Alan Zinter 1990 36 12 Scott Steen 1986 22
3 Jeromy Burnitz 1991 34 13 Joe Vitiello 1992 22
4 Shea Morenz 1996 32 14 Ronnie Gideon 1986 22
5 Jason Grabowski 1998 28 15 Dave Clark 1984 21
6 Chris Donnels 1988 28 16 Beau Mills 2008 21
7 Sean Doolittle 2008 27 17 Bill Haselman 1988 21
8 Richie Robnett 2005 25 18 Orsino Hill 1984 21
9 Eric Christopherson 1991 24 19 Keith Komeiji 1985 20
10 Antone Williamson 1995 23 20 Nick Markakis 2005 20

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