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He's probably very handsome. Chance Chapman
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 25
6' 4"
200 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2007 WPT A- 5 3 0 14 14 77.7 70 20 67 1 53% .297 2 1.16 2.08 -3 6.24 11.0 3.4 3.3 0.8 -5.0 0.0 0.3
2008 LWD A 7 7 0 26 23 139.0 133 37 118 6 52% .315 1 1.22 2.98 -2 5.97 11.9 3.7 3.7 1.1 -5.0 0.0 1.0


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/10/09 6:21 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 6 8 0 21 21 117.7 135 45 72 15 49% .310 9 1.53 5.43 -1 5.69 10.2 3.0 4.7 1.1 -0.3 0.9 1.0
75o 5 8 0 20 20 109.0 133 46 65 15 49% .321 6 1.64 6.03 0 6.28 10.9 3.3 4.6 1.2 -7.8 0.1 0.1
60o 5 8 0 20 20 101.3 131 46 59 16 49% .331 3 1.74 6.58 0 6.83 11.5 3.5 4.5 1.4 -13.7 -0.6 -0.5
50o 4 8 0 24 17 96.3 129 45 56 16 49% .338 -3 1.80 6.96 0 7.20 11.9 3.7 4.5 1.5 -17.2 -1.0 -0.9
40o 4 7 0 25 16 93.0 127 45 53 16 49% .342 -5 1.85 7.22 0 7.46 12.2 3.8 4.4 1.5 -19.3 -1.3 -1.2
25o 3 7 0 24 15 83.7 122 44 47 16 48% .354 -9 1.98 7.94 0 8.17 13.0 4.1 4.3 1.7 -24.3 -1.8 -1.8
10o 2 5 0 22 10 55.7 99 37 28 15 48% .393 -24 2.44 10.47 0 10.61 15.8 5.2 3.9 2.3 -31.8 -2.7 -2.8
Weighted Mean 4 7 0 25 16 95.0 126 44 55 16 49% .336 -3 1.79 6.86 0 7.11 11.8 3.7 4.5 1.4 -15.3 -0.9 -1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

3%

22%

37%

14%

1.21

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 25) 4 7 0 25 16 95.0 126 44 55 16 49% .336 -3 1.79 6.86 0 7.11 11.8 3.7 4.5 1.4 -15.3 -0.9 -1.0
2010 (age 26) 4 6 0 29 13 86.0 113 38 51 14 48% .334 -6 1.75 6.70 0 6.92 11.7 3.5 4.6 1.5 -9.9 -0.7 -0.6
2011 (age 27) 3 5 0 25 9 63.7 88 30 38 11 48% .346 -8 1.83 7.03 0 7.27 12.2 3.7 4.6 1.5 -7.9 -0.8 -0.5
2012 (age 28) 3 5 0 26 8 65.3 86 32 38 8 48% .343 -7 1.80 6.77 0 7.05 11.8 3.8 4.5 1.1 -4.9 -0.7 -0.3
2013 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 30)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 31)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .298 .400 .480
vs RHB .283 .358 .426
Split +.015 +.042 +.054
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 -1.0 $400,000 -17.0 0.2
2010 -0.6 $400,000 -11.1 1.0
2011 -0.5 $400,000 -8.8 0.4
2012 -0.3 $400,000 -5.5 0.6
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 6.28 7.20 8.17 7.11
2010 5.94 7.57 8.54 6.92
2011 6.28 7.44 9.16 7.27
2012 5.93 7.02 9.02 7.05
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 14% 0% 3%
2010 37% 19% 3%
2011 61% 43% 5%
2012 71% 57% 3%
2013 88% 71% 5%
2014 85% 83% 3%
2015 91% 85% 5%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

73

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Larry Buckle 1981 69 11 Matt Lindstrom 2005 61
2 Steve Loubier 1990 68 12 Jeff Cosman 1996 61
3 Korey Keling 1994 68 13 Carlos Fisher 2008 61
4 Pat Rapp 1992 67 14 Zach McClellan 2004 60
5 Chris Hook 1993 66 15 Travis Buckley 1995 60
6 Eric Estes 1998 66 16 Richard Strasser 1985 60
7 Rick Shackle 1992 65 17 Tom Meagher 1988 59
8 Wayne Giddings 1985 63 18 Douglas Mathis 2008 59
9 Michael Frew 1987 63 19 Christopher DiLorenzo 1981 58
10 Michael Sassone 1987 61 20 Kevin Jarvis 1994 58

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