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He's probably very handsome. Chance Chapman
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 24
6' 4"
200 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2007 WPT 1A 5 3 0 14 14 77.7 70 20 67 1 54% .297 -6 1.16 2.08 5.12 5.70 10.0 4.1 3.8 0.6 -0.8 1.1


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 7:45 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 8 7 0 24 24 136.0 145 52 74 18 50% .285 3 1.44 4.45 4.80 4.53 9.2 3.1 4.4 1.1 17.7 2.8 3.2
75o 7 8 0 23 23 128.0 143 54 68 18 50% .294 -2 1.54 5.12 5.31 5.23 9.7 3.5 4.3 1.2 6.5 1.6 2.1
60o 6 8 0 22 22 119.0 141 56 61 18 50% .304 -7 1.65 5.90 5.90 6.03 10.3 3.9 4.2 1.3 -5.0 0.4 0.9
50o 6 9 0 22 22 116.0 140 56 59 18 50% .308 -8 1.69 6.18 6.11 6.32 10.5 4.0 4.1 1.3 -8.8 0.0 0.5
40o 5 9 0 28 19 112.0 139 57 56 18 50% .313 -14 1.74 6.55 6.39 6.70 10.8 4.2 4.1 1.4 -13.4 -0.5 0.0
25o 4 9 0 28 18 104.3 136 57 51 18 50% .322 -19 1.85 7.29 6.96 7.47 11.3 4.5 3.9 1.5 -21.7 -1.4 -0.9
10o 2 8 0 26 14 81.0 122 57 35 17 50% .350 -35 2.20 9.74 8.87 9.99 13.1 5.8 3.5 1.8 -40.3 -3.4 -3.0
Weighted Mean 6 9 0 31 21 124.7 149 59 64 19 50% .306 -11 1.67 6.07 6.00 6.21 10.4 3.9 4.1 1.3 -6.9 0.1 0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

10%

33%

31%

18%

1.31

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 24) 6 9 0 31 21 124.7 149 59 64 19 50% .306 -11 1.67 6.07 6.00 6.21 10.4 3.9 4.1 1.3 -6.9 0.1 0.4
2009 (age 25) 4 6 0 26 12 80.0 98 37 44 13 50% .314 -15 1.69 6.17 6.19 6.29 10.6 3.9 4.4 1.4 -5.0 -0.1 0.2
2010 (age 26) 4 6 0 29 12 87.0 106 39 45 14 49% .310 -15 1.66 5.96 6.00 6.07 10.6 3.6 4.2 1.3 -2.6 0.1 0.3
2011 (age 27) 3 4 0 25 8 65.0 81 27 33 9 50% .318 -16 1.66 5.96 5.92 6.11 10.8 3.5 4.0 1.2 -2.1 0.0 0.2
2012 (age 28) 3 4 0 25 8 65.0 77 25 34 10 50% .306 -14 1.58 5.76 5.67 5.89 10.3 3.2 4.2 1.3 -0.9 0.1 0.2
2013 (age 29) 3 4 0 25 6 58.0 73 23 32 9 50% .321 -14 1.65 5.87 6.05 5.96 10.9 3.3 4.4 1.4 -0.9 0.0 0.2
2014 (age 30)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .289 .395 .460
vs RHB .274 .353 .407
Split +.015 +.042 +.054
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.4 $550,000 -8.7 2.7
2009 0.2 $450,000 -6.2 1.9
2010 0.3 $500,000 -3.4 1.7
2011 0.2 $450,000 -2.8 0.8
2012 0.2 $500,000 -1.4 0.7
2013 0.2 $450,000 -1.3 0.6
2014 0.3 $900,000 1.3 0.3
Peak 1.4 $650,000 1.3 8.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 5.23 6.32 7.47 6.21
2009 5.07 6.54 7.72 6.29
2010 5.07 5.74 7.09 6.07
2011 4.65 6.02 8.22 6.11
2012 5.23 6.18 7.58 5.89
2013 4.81 5.84 7.81 5.96
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 18% 0% 10%
2009 39% 20% 13%
2010 55% 40% 14%
2011 68% 48% 12%
2012 70% 54% 9%
2013 78% 62% 9%
2014 86% 80% 11%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

67

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Carlos Fisher 2007 64 11 T.A. Fulmer 2004 55
2 Jeff Cosman 1995 64 12 Ryan Smith 1996 55
3 Jack Egbert 2007 60 13 Landon Jacobsen 2003 55
4 KEVIN TATAR 1992 59 14 Jeff Sexton 1996 53
5 Douglas Mathis 2007 58 15 Ryan Greene 1998 53
6 Travis Thompson 2001 58 16 Brent Crowther 1996 52
7 Jordan Tata 2006 57 17 Burke Badenhop 2007 51
8 Tim Manwiller 1999 56 18 Scott Robinson 1993 51
9 Paul O'Hearn 1995 56 19 Cam Spence 1999 51
10 Jon McDonald 2002 56 20 Bobby Rodgers 1998 51

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