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Ozzie Chavez
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Shortstop
Bats B
Age 25
6' 1"
160 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 HUN AA 368 32 15 3 1 33 35 53 6 4 -0.1 .259 .333 .334 -.269 .234 .299 .310 .218 -16.3 90-SS -5 -0.7
2006 NAS AAA 81 6 1 2 1 6 1 11 1 1 -3.0 .231 .250 .333 -.422 .203 .222 .316 .173 -7.0 20-SS 2 -0.2
2007 NAS AAA 351 35 13 3 4 32 38 53 4 8 -6.5 .258 .340 .359 -.235 .229 .309 .323 .221 -11.9 48-SS 2 35-2B 0 0.3
2008 HUN AA 22 4 0 1 1 4 2 3 0 1 -0.3 .350 .409 .600 .139 .286 .348 .524 .275 1.7 0.1
2008 NAS AAA 277 19 6 3 3 29 17 49 5 1 -0.7 .223 .272 .307 -.440 .200 .245 .271 .181 -25.8 48-SS 2 15-2B 0 -1.3


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/7/09 10:18 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 379 42 16 2 5 28 34 69 6 3 0.1 .252 .323 .359 -.142 .253 .323 .364 .243 3.8 91-SS -1 0.9
75o 373 37 15 2 4 26 31 69 5 3 0.1 .237 .305 .330 -.222 .237 .305 .335 .226 -3.3 90-SS -1 0.2
60o 370 34 14 2 4 25 30 69 5 3 0.1 .228 .294 .314 -.269 .228 .294 .319 .216 -7.2 89-SS 0 0.0
50o 368 32 13 2 3 25 29 69 5 3 0.1 .222 .286 .302 -.303 .222 .286 .306 .208 -10.2 88-SS 0 -0.4
40o 365 30 12 2 3 24 27 70 5 3 0.1 .214 .277 .288 -.343 .214 .277 .292 .198 -13.5 88-SS 0 -0.7
25o 359 26 11 1 2 22 25 70 5 3 0.1 .202 .262 .265 -.407 .202 .262 .269 .181 -18.7 86-SS 1 -1.2
10o 352 23 10 1 2 20 23 70 4 3 0.1 .188 .246 .240 -.478 .188 .246 .244 .160 -24.2 85-SS 1 -1.8
Weighted Mean 372 32 13 2 3 25 29 71 5 3 0.1 .218 .282 .295 -.313 .218 .282 .300 .201 -10.2 89-SS 1 -0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

30%

53%

31%

13%

0.98

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 25) 372 32 13 2 3 25 29 71 5 3 0.1 .218 .282 .295 -.313 .218 .282 .300 .201 -10.2 89-SS 1 -0.4
2010 (age 26) 372 32 13 2 4 27 27 71 5 3 0.1 .217 .276 .299 -.343 .214 .272 .300 .199 -9.8 89-SS 0 -0.3
2011 (age 27) 377 29 13 1 3 26 27 74 4 3 0.1 .204 .266 .275 -.399 .202 .263 .275 .185 -12.0 90-SS 0 -0.5
2012 (age 28) 344 27 13 1 4 26 24 68 4 2 0.1 .207 .266 .291 -.378 .204 .262 .292 .190 -8.1 83-SS -5 -0.6
2013 (age 29) 332 26 11 1 4 25 24 60 4 2 0.1 .208 .268 .289 -.376 .206 .264 .289 .191 -7.0 80-SS -3 -0.4
2014 (age 30) 295 22 10 1 3 23 22 57 3 2 0.1 .211 .272 .288 -.368 .208 .269 .288 .192 -4.6 72-SS -4 -0.3
2015 (age 31) 407 36 15 2 4 28 29 76 7 3 0.1 .214 .274 .297 -.351 .211 .271 .297 .197 -3.5 97-SS -4 0.0

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .223 .281 .301
vs RHP .216 .282 .293
Split +.007 -.001 +.008
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -18.7 1.0 -0.4 $400,000 -9.6 0.2
2010 -19.7 0.0 -0.3 $400,000 -9.4 0.3
2011 -24.2 0.0 -0.5 $400,000 -10.8 0.5
2012 -20.9 -5.0 -0.6 $400,000 -10.3 0.2
2013 -19.8 -3.0 -0.4 $400,000 -7.7 0.5
2014 -17.2 -4.0 -0.3 $400,000 -5.6 0.0
2015 -22.1 -4.0 0.0 $400,000 -3.5 0.0
Peak 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .226 .208 .181 .201
2010 .232 .210 .177 .199
2011 .223 .199 .160 .185
2012 .237 .200 .153 .190
2013 .237 .199 .157 .191
2014 .235 .205 .148 .192
2015 .230 .213 .178 .197


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 13% 0% 30%
2010 36% 18% 27%
2011 45% 26% 23%
2012 54% 41% 22%
2013 65% 49% 19%
2014 74% 64% 17%
2015 79% 71% 14%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

64

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Hanley Frias 1999 62 11 Tomas De_La_Rosa 2003 48
2 Ramon Santiago 2005 62 12 Juan Gonzalez 2008 47
3 Tomas Perez 1999 56 13 Teuris Olivares 2004 47
4 Wilson Delgado 1998 54 14 Carlos Rodriguez 1993 47
5 Peeter Ramos 2008 51 15 Javier Guzman 2008 46
6 Carlos Leon 2005 50 16 Junior Betances 1999 46
7 Mike Guerrero 1993 50 17 Vernon Followell 1983 46
8 Bert Pena 1985 49 18 Julio Valdez 1982 46
9 Juan Melo 2002 48 19 Al Pedrique 1986 45
10 Rico Rossy 1990 48 20 Mike Mordecai 1993 45

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