Koby Clemens

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 1:12 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	577	74	36	2	20	72	65	136	4	3	-0.9	.258	.346	.457	.047	.261	.349	.470	.279	26.2	135-C -18	3.1
75^o	558	66	34	2	18	66	61	134	4	2	-0.9	.250	.336	.438	-.003	.253	.339	.449	.270	18.9	131-C -17	2.5
60^o	532	57	31	2	15	58	56	130	3	2	-0.8	.240	.324	.413	-.065	.243	.326	.424	.259	10.3	125-C -15	1.7
50^o	515	52	29	2	14	54	52	127	3	2	-0.8	.233	.316	.396	-.106	.237	.318	.407	.251	5.0	121-C -15	1.2
40^o	496	46	27	2	12	48	49	124	3	2	-0.7	.226	.307	.378	-.151	.229	.309	.388	.242	-0.4	117-C -14	0.7
25^o	478	42	25	2	11	44	46	121	3	2	-0.7	.220	.299	.363	-.189	.223	.301	.373	.234	-4.7	113-C -13	0.3
10^o	449	35	22	1	9	37	41	116	2	2	-0.6	.210	.286	.338	-.252	.213	.288	.347	.220	-11.0	106-C -11	-0.3
Weighted Mean	545	57	31	2	15	58	56	134	3	2	-0.8	.235	.318	.400	-.103	.238	.320	.411	.252	8.7	128-C -16	1.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
57%	82%	4%	8%	0.86

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 22)	545	57	31	2	15	58	56	134	3	2	-0.8	.235	.318	.400	-.103	.238	.320	.411	.252	8.7	128-C -16	1.4
2010 (age 23)	495	49	27	2	13	52	49	117	3	2	-0.6	.237	.317	.399	-.115	.237	.315	.404	.252	5.4	117-C -15	1.3
2011 (age 24)	488	49	27	2	14	53	50	113	3	2	-0.5	.237	.320	.404	-.104	.237	.318	.409	.254	5.8	115-C -14	1.2
2012 (age 25)	452	44	24	2	12	48	46	106	3	2	-0.4	.235	.318	.399	-.115	.235	.316	.404	.252	4.0	107-C -17	0.9
2013 (age 26)	431	41	23	1	12	48	45	97	2	2	-0.3	.234	.319	.398	-.115	.234	.317	.403	.252	3.2	102-C -12	0.8
2014 (age 27)	451	41	25	2	11	48	47	99	2	2	-0.2	.225	.309	.380	-.163	.225	.306	.385	.243	0.2	107-C -13	0.5
2015 (age 28)	496	46	26	1	12	52	50	111	3	2	-0.1	.223	.302	.373	-.184	.222	.300	.378	.238	-0.8	117-C -11	0.4

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.250	.333	.424
vs RHP	.230	.310	.385
Split	+.019	+.023	+.038
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	0.6	-16.0	1.4	$1,575,000	0.9	2.7
2010	0.3	-15.0	1.3	$1,475,000	-1.5	2.4
2011	1.6	-14.0	1.2	$1,550,000	-0.7	4.4
2012	0.5	-17.0	0.9	$1,400,000	-1.2	3.7
2013	0.5	-12.0	0.8	$1,450,000	-0.5	4.4
2014	-4.2	-13.0	0.5	$1,050,000	-2.2	3.7
2015	-7.1	-11.0	0.4	$900,000	-2.8	2.7
Peak			6.1	$5,000,000	-0.5	21.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.270	.251	.234	.252
2010	.269	.252	.233	.252
2011	.269	.253	.233	.254
2012	.274	.256	.225	.252
2013	.270	.250	.215	.252
2014	.276	.242	.219	.243
2015	.273	.240	.222	.238

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	8%	0%	57%
2010	16%	2%	57%
2011	24%	14%	58%
2012	35%	22%	56%
2013	49%	33%	45%
2014	61%	53%	38%
2015	68%	59%	38%

60

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	John Roskos	1997	58		11	Scott Coolbaugh	1989	45
2	Randy Ready	1982	52		12	Steve Lomasney	2000	44
3	Tom Redington	1991	48		13	Nick Evans	2008	44
4	John Ackley	1984	47		14	Ben Petrick	1999	44
5	Jason Dewey	1999	46		15	Pat Cline	1997	44
6	Randy Asadoor	1985	46		16	J.R. House	2002	42
7	Gary Alexander	1990	46		17	Brent Clevlen	2006	41
8	Tom Evans	1997	46		18	Bobby Rose	1989	41
9	Jeff Mathis	2005	45		19	Garrett Long	1999	40
10	Creighton Gubanich	1994	45		20	Kurt Suzuki	2006	40

Player Comments

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2007

Roger`s kid, Koby Clemens, wasn`t purely a nepotism pick, but he`s struggled as a pro. He has a little power and a strong arm (no surprise), but his hitting skills, approach, and athleticism are all a little behind the curve.

2006

For a guy written off as an irrelevant pick, Clemens played pretty well in the Appalachian League. He impressed a few scouts, drew a few walks, and showed some raw talent on defense. He`s unlikely to play with his dad in the bigs unless it`s part of some sort of publicity stunt, but he`s certainly earned the chance to play professionally.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	LEX	A	352	40	19	1	5	39	32	67	2	1	-1.9	.229	.313	.346	-.480	.174	.234	.265	.169	-37.9	81-3B -16	-4.6
2007	LEX	A	484	65	21	0	15	56	53	112	8	2	-4.1	.252	.344	.412	-.327	.200	.272	.318	.210	-28.7	99-3B -12	-3.1
2008	SLM	A+	458	54	29	5	7	52	61	99	1	4	-0.8	.268	.369	.423	-.085	.244	.333	.399	.256	4.5	76-C -6	0.9

Historical Stats