<< PECOTA Home Player Search     
');// -->

He's probably very handsome. Casey Crosby
Detroit Tigers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 19
6' 5"
190 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/19/08 3:29 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 7 9 0 24 24 129.3 145 80 64 20 45% .291 -8 1.74 5.74 5.90 5.75 9.8 5.0 4.1 1.4 -3.2 0.7 0.9
75o 6 9 0 24 24 123.7 144 83 60 20 45% .296 -13 1.84 6.31 6.41 6.30 10.2 5.5 4.0 1.5 -11.5 -0.2 0.1
60o 5 10 0 24 24 120.0 144 86 57 21 45% .300 -16 1.91 6.73 6.78 6.70 10.5 5.8 3.9 1.6 -17.1 -0.8 -0.5
50o 4 10 0 23 23 107.3 140 92 48 23 46% .313 -27 2.16 8.16 8.08 8.07 11.4 7.0 3.7 1.9 -33.5 -2.5 -2.2
40o 3 10 0 22 22 101.3 138 95 44 23 46% .320 -33 2.30 8.90 8.79 8.78 11.9 7.6 3.5 2.1 -40.4 -3.2 -2.9
25o 3 9 0 29 18 89.3 134 99 35 25 46% .334 -50 2.60 10.41 10.35 10.19 13.1 9.0 3.2 2.5 -51.3 -4.4 -4.1
10o 1 7 0 31 13 64.0 119 101 19 25 47% .369 -84 3.42 14.28 14.56 13.75 16.2 12.8 2.4 3.5 -64.9 -5.8 -5.5
Weighted Mean 4 10 0 24 24 115.7 149 97 52 24 46% .311 -25 2.12 7.97 7.86 7.90 11.2 6.8 3.7 1.9 -30.6 -2.4 -1.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

0%

0%

0%

0%

1.85

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 19) 4 10 0 24 24 115.7 149 97 52 24 46% .311 -25 2.12 7.97 7.86 7.90 11.2 6.8 3.7 1.9 -30.6 -2.4 -1.7
2009 (age 20) 4 8 0 29 18 101.0 132 69 46 18 46% .318 -25 1.99 7.35 7.24 7.32 11.4 5.6 3.7 1.7 -21.7 -1.5 -0.9
2010 (age 21) 5 8 0 34 18 110.0 141 66 51 17 45% .320 -20 1.88 6.52 6.62 6.50 11.2 4.9 3.8 1.4 -10.2 -0.6 0.0
2011 (age 22) 5 10 0 34 21 126.3 152 72 60 22 44% .300 -18 1.77 6.86 6.35 6.87 10.5 4.6 3.9 1.6 -12.6 -1.2 -0.3
2012 (age 23) 5 8 0 37 15 104.0 132 58 55 16 45% .324 -17 1.83 6.47 6.47 6.46 11.1 4.5 4.3 1.4 -6.7 -0.5 0.0
2013 (age 24) 4 5 1 42 8 86.3 99 38 51 14 44% .299 -11 1.59 5.29 5.52 5.27 10.1 3.6 4.8 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6
2014 (age 25) 3 3 0 28 5 55.7 64 27 30 9 46% .297 -15 1.64 5.84 5.63 5.88 10.1 4.0 4.4 1.5 -1.2 0.0 0.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .270 .354 .416
vs RHB .291 .376 .474
Split -.021 -.022 -.058
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 -1.7 $400,000 -29.6 0.4
2009 -0.9 $400,000 -20.9 0.6
2010 0.0 $400,000 -9.8 0.9
2011 -0.3 $400,000 -12.1 0.0
2012 0.0 $400,000 -6.4 0.8
2013 0.6 $1,200,000 1.6 1.9
2014 0.2 $500,000 -1.1 0.0
Peak 1.1 $650,000 1.6 4.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 6.30 8.07 10.19 7.90
2009 5.64 6.39 9.54 7.32
2010 5.26 6.29 9.12 6.50
2011 5.74 6.39 9.54 6.87
2012 6.01 6.77 8.76 6.46
2013 4.18 5.08 6.39 5.27
2014 5.33 5.58 5.87 5.88


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 N/A 0% N/A
2009 52% 8% 4%
2010 50% 20% 6%
2011 63% 32% 6%
2012 79% 33% 8%
2013 87% 57% 10%
2014 93% 61% 5%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

35

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Matt Harrison 2005 69 11 Ray Lovingood 1998 45
2 Chris Jones 1999 62 12 Tony Dejesus 1998 44
3 Trever Miller 1993 59 13 Dan Cevette 2003 41
4 Jimmy Gobble 2001 59 14 MATT LACHAPPA 1995 38
5 Ryan Feierabend 2005 58 15 Bill Pulsipher 1993 36
6 Chris Narveson 2001 55 16 Larry Wimberly 1995 35
7 Eric Good 2000 54 17 Jacob McGee 2006 35
8 Nate Bland 1994 53 18 Kris Stevens 1997 35
9 Tony Butler 2007 51 19 Chris Seddon 2003 28
10 Justin Jones 2004 51 20 Danny Mozingo 2000 26

Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.