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He's probably very handsome. Andy Cumberland
San Diego Padres [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Shortstop
Bats L
Age 19
5' 10"
175 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 PDR 0R 95 16 2 1 0 7 7 9 6 1 -0.6 .318 .389 .365 .060 .222 .263 .256 .179 -14.0 19-SS -1 0.1
2007 EUG 1A 21 6 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0.2 .333 .429 .389 .205 .263 .300 .316 .214 -1.3 0.0


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 8:48 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 545 57 24 2 4 39 36 101 15 5 0.7 .241 .295 .324 -.258 .248 .302 .347 .226 -1.4 128-SS -4 2.5
75o 534 52 22 2 4 37 34 103 14 5 0.6 .233 .285 .311 -.298 .239 .292 .333 .217 -6.7 126-SS -4 2.0
60o 514 45 19 2 3 34 30 105 13 5 0.6 .220 .269 .290 -.363 .227 .275 .310 .202 -14.6 121-SS -4 1.2
50o 506 42 18 2 3 32 28 105 13 5 0.5 .215 .262 .281 -.391 .221 .268 .300 .195 -17.9 119-SS -4 0.9
40o 493 38 17 2 2 30 26 106 12 5 0.5 .207 .253 .269 -.429 .213 .259 .287 .185 -22.1 116-SS -4 0.4
25o 473 32 14 2 2 27 23 107 11 5 0.5 .196 .239 .251 -.484 .202 .245 .268 .170 -27.6 112-SS -4 0.0
10o 449 27 12 2 1 24 20 108 10 4 0.4 .185 .225 .232 -.542 .191 .230 .248 .151 -32.7 107-SS -4 -0.7
Weighted Mean 531 43 18 2 3 33 29 113 13 5 0.5 .210 .257 .274 -.413 .216 .263 .293 .189 -18.0 125-SS -4 0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

52%

67%

18%

6%

1.00

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 19) 531 43 18 2 3 33 29 113 13 5 0.5 .210 .257 .274 -.413 .216 .263 .293 .189 -18.0 125-SS -4 0.8
2009 (age 20) 567 52 22 3 4 40 32 113 16 5 0.5 .219 .267 .297 -.359 .222 .269 .312 .204 -14.4 133-SS -1 1.6
2010 (age 21) 586 57 22 3 6 42 33 110 15 6 0.5 .224 .271 .310 -.330 .227 .273 .326 .210 -9.5 137-SS -2 1.7
2011 (age 22) 547 54 20 3 6 39 34 100 15 5 0.4 .228 .280 .315 -.305 .231 .282 .331 .216 -6.3 129-SS -5 1.7
2012 (age 23) 548 55 23 3 5 35 33 95 14 5 0.4 .234 .283 .323 -.284 .237 .285 .339 .220 -3.7 129-SS -6 1.6
2013 (age 24) 536 58 22 3 7 40 33 87 14 5 0.3 .243 .295 .341 -.234 .247 .297 .358 .230 1.4 126-SS -4 2.0
2014 (age 25) 489 53 22 3 6 36 32 78 11 5 0.2 .255 .308 .358 -.179 .258 .310 .376 .241 4.6 115-SS -4 2.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .183 .227 .218
vs RHP .218 .268 .297
Split -.035 -.040 -.079
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -1.7 2.5 0.8 $900,000 -22.9 0.0
2009 -1.2 2.8 1.6 $1,900,000 -16.8 0.4
2010 -0.8 2.5 1.7 $2,100,000 -12.1 1.2
2011 -0.5 2.2 1.7 $2,225,000 -11.0 1.2
2012 -0.3 1.9 1.6 $2,275,000 -8.8 1.2
2013 0.1 1.9 2.0 $3,200,000 -1.7 4.3
2014 0.3 1.7 2.1 $4,000,000 2.0 3.3
Peak 10.7 $9,775,000 0.2 14.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .217 .195 .170 .189
2009 .227 .208 .181 .204
2010 .237 .217 .191 .210
2011 .242 .224 .200 .216
2012 .243 .221 .202 .220
2013 .248 .229 .214 .230
2014 .253 .239 .223 .241


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 6% 0% 52%
2009 0% 0% 67%
2010 6% 5% 69%
2011 11% 9% 76%
2012 16% 15% 79%
2013 28% 23% 78%
2014 39% 34% 82%

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