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He's probably very handsome. Michael Daniel
Washington Nationals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Right Field
Bats L
Age 23
6' 3"
180 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 VER 1A 280 41 6 4 3 25 29 64 6 7 2.7 .260 .351 .357 .016 .200 .266 .264 .187 -50.4 38-RF -8 -0.3
2006 VER 1A 203 29 8 3 3 18 16 52 13 4 0.1 .304 .376 .431 .223 .209 .267 .332 .213 -20.3 24-CF -3 0.4
2006 SAV 1B 211 20 5 1 4 16 26 52 8 4 2.8 .193 .301 .298 -.152 .159 .243 .243 .170 -22.8 21-CF -3 -0.4
2007 HAG 1B 236 38 15 1 7 37 19 50 9 5 1.2 .290 .365 .473 .174 .233 .291 .367 .229 -4.9 25-CF -5 0.7
2007 POT 1C 320 37 20 5 4 41 29 62 16 6 -0.9 .296 .361 .446 .171 .234 .289 .362 .230 -14.6 27-RF -3 0.8


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 8:53 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 648 87 34 5 15 68 57 160 18 7 2.2 .256 .328 .412 -.070 .256 .329 .420 .258 6.6 151-RF 3 4.0
75o 593 66 29 4 11 57 47 152 16 6 1.9 .238 .305 .369 -.182 .238 .305 .376 .236 -9.5 139-RF 2 2.3
60o 574 60 27 4 9 53 44 149 15 6 1.8 .232 .297 .355 -.218 .232 .297 .362 .228 -14.1 135-RF 2 1.8
50o 552 54 25 4 8 49 40 145 14 6 1.7 .226 .288 .339 -.259 .225 .288 .346 .220 -18.9 130-RF 2 1.3
40o 536 49 24 3 7 46 38 143 13 6 1.6 .221 .282 .328 -.288 .221 .282 .334 .213 -22.1 126-RF 1 0.9
25o 496 40 21 3 5 39 33 136 12 5 1.4 .210 .267 .302 -.356 .210 .267 .308 .197 -28.3 117-RF 1 0.2
10o 452 31 18 2 3 32 27 127 10 4 1.2 .199 .252 .276 -.425 .199 .252 .281 .179 -33.1 107-RF 1 -0.5
Weighted Mean 598 61 28 4 9 52 44 157 15 6 1.7 .228 .291 .344 -.248 .227 .291 .350 .222 -13.1 140-RF 2 1.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

41%

62%

20%

15%

1.13

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 23) 598 61 28 4 9 52 44 157 15 6 1.7 .228 .291 .344 -.248 .227 .291 .350 .222 -13.1 140-RF 2 1.6
2009 (age 24) 584 63 28 4 10 55 44 147 16 7 1.3 .235 .298 .361 -.207 .231 .294 .361 .230 -9.5 137-RF 1 1.3
2010 (age 25) 511 52 24 4 10 47 36 129 13 5 0.9 .234 .295 .365 -.208 .230 .291 .365 .230 -6.6 120-RF 2 1.0
2011 (age 26) 506 55 26 3 11 53 37 119 13 4 0.6 .250 .309 .389 -.139 .246 .305 .390 .243 -1.1 119-RF 1 0.9
2012 (age 27)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 28)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .203 .265 .299
vs RHP .235 .302 .370
Split -.032 -.037 -.071
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.3 1.8 1.6 $1,675,000 -14.3 0.6
2009 0.1 1.2 1.3 $1,500,000 -11.3 1.2
2010 0.0 0.9 1.0 $1,150,000 -7.0 0.8
2011 0.3 0.6 0.9 $1,150,000 -2.4 1.6
2012 0.3 0.5 0.7 $1,000,000 0.0 1.9
2013 0.3 0.4 0.7 $1,100,000 0.6 1.6
2014 0.2 0.3 0.5 $875,000 -0.5 0.2
Peak 6.2 $4,375,000 0.6 7.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .236 .220 .197 .222
2009 .244 .232 .217 .230
2010 .242 .224 .214 .230
2011 .264 .245 .211 .243
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 15% 0% 41%
2009 27% 21% 47%
2010 50% 35% 38%
2011 66% 53% 49%
2012 76% 71% 43%
2013 80% 74% 43%
2014 86% 79% 40%

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