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He's probably very handsome. Travis D'Arnaud
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 19
6' 2"
195 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 PHL 0R 151 18 3 0 4 20 4 23 4 2 1.4 .241 .278 .348 -.099 .185 .204 .267 .152 -38.7 20-C -2 -0.6


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/19/08 1:11 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 500 45 24 1 10 45 29 115 10 4 0.2 .232 .281 .353 -.251 .228 .279 .346 .214 -12.2 118-C -11 1.1
75o 485 38 21 1 8 42 25 114 9 3 0.2 .220 .264 .329 -.320 .216 .263 .322 .198 -19.6 115-C -10 0.4
60o 469 33 19 1 7 38 22 112 9 3 0.2 .207 .248 .305 -.390 .204 .246 .299 .181 -26.4 111-C -10 -0.2
50o 461 30 18 1 7 37 20 112 8 3 0.1 .202 .240 .295 -.420 .199 .239 .289 .172 -29.1 109-C -9 -0.5
40o 447 26 16 1 6 34 18 110 8 3 0.1 .193 .228 .278 -.471 .190 .227 .272 .158 -33.4 106-C -9 -0.9
25o 426 22 14 1 5 30 15 108 7 3 0.1 .182 .213 .256 -.534 .179 .211 .251 .137 -38.1 101-C -8 -1.4
10o 358 13 9 1 2 19 8 99 7 3 0.1 .160 .181 .214 -.661 .157 .180 .209 .065 -42.5 86-C -6 -2.1
Weighted Mean 488 33 19 1 7 39 21 119 9 3 0.1 .201 .240 .294 -.424 .198 .238 .287 .171 -27.1 115-C -10 -0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

68%

77%

19%

10%

1.17

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 19) 488 33 19 1 7 39 21 119 9 3 0.1 .201 .240 .294 -.424 .198 .238 .287 .171 -27.1 115-C -10 -0.4
2009 (age 20) 503 37 21 1 9 46 22 117 9 3 0.1 .210 .248 .316 -.373 .203 .243 .304 .185 -25.6 119-C -11 0.0
2010 (age 21) 519 44 22 2 12 50 25 111 9 4 0.1 .219 .261 .343 -.309 .213 .255 .329 .200 -17.0 122-C -10 0.6
2011 (age 22) 447 38 19 1 10 45 24 94 7 3 0.1 .228 .273 .356 -.263 .221 .267 .342 .210 -9.8 106-C -11 0.6
2012 (age 23) 476 42 21 2 11 45 25 96 8 3 0.1 .232 .277 .363 -.244 .225 .271 .349 .215 -7.9 113-C -8 0.9
2013 (age 24) 431 40 19 2 11 47 24 79 9 3 0.0 .247 .290 .387 -.177 .239 .284 .372 .229 -2.2 102-C -9 1.1
2014 (age 25) 427 42 20 2 13 50 26 80 8 3 0.0 .255 .301 .411 -.122 .247 .294 .395 .240 1.2 102-C -11 1.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .217 .258 .321
vs RHP .197 .234 .283
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -2.1 1.7 -0.4 $400,000 -29.3 0.0
2009 -1.7 1.7 0.0 $400,000 -28.5 0.1
2010 -1.1 1.7 0.6 $775,000 -18.8 0.2
2011 -0.6 1.2 0.6 $800,000 -13.2 0.8
2012 -0.4 1.3 0.9 $1,150,000 -9.5 0.5
2013 0.0 1.0 1.1 $1,525,000 -4.3 1.8
2014 0.3 1.0 1.3 $2,000,000 -1.4 2.3
Peak 6.7 $4,775,000 -1.5 7.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .198 .172 .137 .171
2009 .212 .194 .164 .185
2010 .225 .208 .174 .200
2011 .232 .208 .198 .210
2012 .233 .217 .195 .215
2013 .268 .227 .200 .229
2014 .256 .239 .215 .240


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 10% 0% 68%
2009 5% 1% 78%
2010 9% 4% 82%
2011 19% 16% 81%
2012 24% 22% 87%
2013 32% 31% 86%
2014 47% 36% 83%

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