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Ben Davis
Baltimore Orioles [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 31
6' 4"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
ESPN Player Card
tsn.ca Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 CHR 3A 35 1 0 0 1 3 1 4 0 0 -0.2 .242 .257 .333 -.286 .242 .257 .333 .205 -1.9 0.2
2006 TAM 1C 17 2 1 0 1 2 1 4 0 0 0.0 .188 .235 .438 -.090 .188 .235 .500 .240 -0.2 0.0
2006 COH 3A 170 10 6 0 4 20 7 37 1 1 -1.9 .222 .254 .333 -.194 .210 .247 .327 .194 -9.7 31-C -3 0.0
2007 LVG 3A 121 13 4 0 1 11 10 24 0 1 0.1 .218 .281 .282 -.422 .189 .254 .243 .167 -10.0 28-C -5 -0.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 8:57 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 269 29 13 1 6 27 19 56 2 1 -0.6 .255 .312 .385 -.107 .253 .313 .397 .251 3.5 66-C -2 1.7
75o 247 22 11 1 5 24 16 53 2 1 -0.5 .232 .285 .346 -.221 .230 .286 .357 .227 -3.6 61-C -3 1.0
60o 239 19 10 1 4 23 15 52 2 1 -0.5 .224 .275 .332 -.262 .222 .276 .342 .217 -5.8 59-C -3 0.8
50o 232 17 10 1 4 22 14 51 1 1 -0.4 .217 .267 .321 -.295 .215 .267 .331 .209 -7.5 58-C -3 0.6
40o 219 14 9 0 3 20 12 49 1 1 -0.4 .206 .253 .301 -.352 .204 .253 .310 .195 -10.1 55-C -3 0.3
25o 186 9 6 0 2 16 8 43 1 1 -0.3 .180 .221 .258 -.479 .179 .221 .266 .157 -14.3 47-C -3 -0.3
10o 70 1 2 0 0 4 2 18 0 0 -0.1 .132 .158 .176 -.721 .131 .159 .181 .026 -9.4 21-C -2 -0.4
Weighted Mean 197 14 8 0 3 19 12 43 1 1 -0.4 .217 .267 .321 -.295 .216 .268 .331 .209 -6.2 50-C -2 1.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

62%

68%

26%

41%

0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 31) 197 14 8 0 3 19 12 43 1 1 -0.4 .217 .267 .321 -.295 .216 .268 .331 .209 -6.2 50-C -2 1.2
2009 (age 32) 201 13 8 0 3 19 12 46 1 1 -0.3 .213 .261 .310 -.321 .215 .266 .326 .202 -5.3 51-C -1 0.5
2010 (age 33) 253 20 10 1 5 25 16 57 1 1 -0.2 .222 .271 .329 -.273 .224 .276 .346 .213 -2.7 62-C -2 0.4
2011 (age 34)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 35)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .216 .264 .324
vs RHP .218 .268 .319
Split -.001 -.004 +.005
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.3 1.5 1.2 $1,300,000 -6.9 0.8
2009 -0.3 0.7 0.5 $650,000 -5.6 0.8
2010 0.0 0.5 0.4 $625,000 -2.9 0.2
2011 0.0 0.4 0.3 $550,000 -1.6 0.2
2012 0.0 0.2 0.1 $475,000 -2.5 0.0
2013 0.0 0.1 0.0 $425,000 -1.0 0.0
2014 0.0 0.1 0.1 $500,000 0.1 0.2
Peak 2.6 $1,450,000 0.0 2.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .227 .209 .157 .209
2009 .225 .181 .128 .202
2010 .225 .205 .160 .213
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 41% 0% 62%
2009 46% 35% 45%
2010 64% 57% 42%
2011 76% 69% 36%
2012 80% 75% 26%
2013 93% 89% 21%
2014 99% 94% 20%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

4

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Jimmy Gonzalez 1992 40 11 Bob Tillman 2003 33
2 Jorge Fabregas 1979 36 12 Mark Lewis 1971 33
3 Josh Paul 1981 36 13 Mike Ryan 1982 33
4 Buck Rodgers 1970 36 14 Eddie Zosky 1960 33
5 Sammy White 1973 35 15 Clay Bellinger 2007 32
6 Fausto Tejero 1992 35 16 Paul Casanova 1975 32
7 Mark Johnson 1975 34 17 Bill Haselman 1969 32
8 Johnny Edwards 1975 34 18 Fred Kendall 2000 31
9 Sandy Martinez 1957 34 19 Rich Gedman 1979 30
10 A.J. Hinch 1998 33 20 Robinson Cancel 2005 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2005

Any enthusiasm for Davis after he came over as a throw-in in the Garcia deal was born out of desperation. Not ordinary, it's-Saturday-night desperation, more along the lines of for-god's-sake-somebody-has-to-perpetuate-the-species necessity. Davis had all his limbs, and he knows how to catch. He's been reduced to the backup role that suits his skill set now that Pierzynski's been added.

2003

Davis is dogged by word that pitchers don’t like working with him, and that his work ethic sucks. However, he’s better defensively than Wilson, his game-calling seems fine, so if he’s goofing off with women or backgammon, it’s not anything that affects his performance. Still, he’s 26, and if this is as good as he gets, he’s not a long-term solution at the position.

2002

Prior to the All-Star break, Davis was the best catcher in the National League. Not even Miss Cleo could have predicted that. As the season progressed, he wore down and so did his production; Davis is a large man, especially for a catcher, and his endurance is something to keep an eye on. He's been traded to the Mariners, for whom he'll be the everyday catcher.

2001

Ben Davis is headed for a career with two or three solidly above-average years, and that’s certainly something. However, he’s still got enough of that shiny top-prospect sheen that he might bring more than he’s worth in trade, which is something the Padres should be and have been exploring. Davis has the inside track to start for the Padres in 2001.

2000

Davis made the majors to stay at age 22. Everyone knows he’s got all the tools to be an All-World defensive catcher, including Davis himself. He allowed quite a few more passed balls than a guy with his skills should, because he’s in love with the flashy glove stop. His swing looked pretty slow, and a good curveball abuses him, but the improving patience is a good sign. I wouldn’t trade him for Travis Lee.

1999

Davis looked like a blown pick at the start of his career, but had another year where he made progress. He still doesn't hit much and won't take a walk, but has good doubles power that should turn into home runs at peak age. Defensively awesome; everything from his arm to his footwork is top-notch.

1998

He’s not Jose Cruz, Jr. yet, but Davis made a huge leap forward at Rancho Cucamonga, hitting with plenty of power and continuing to excel defensively. He should arrive to stay in the majors by mid-2000 at the latest. Davis is certainly not a sure thing, but last year was a welcome glimpse of his enormous potential.

1997

Calcium deposits in his elbow ripped apart his season, killing his numbers and forcing him to DH for two months. Long-term this might be a blessing, saving him 500 or so innings behind the plate, but right now he needs those for his development. His defense is reportedly good, and the Padres remain very high on him, but he’s got a terribly long road ahead. High school catchers do not have good track records.


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