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He's probably very handsome. Leonard Davis
Washington Nationals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Third Base
Bats L
Age 24
5' 10"
195 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 VER 1A 257 34 8 8 7 35 12 64 8 4 1.1 .300 .348 .489 .212 .204 .234 .331 .193 -28.6 54-3B 5 0.7
2006 SAV 1B 322 32 12 4 8 38 21 87 4 5 -1.7 .225 .284 .377 -.061 .191 .234 .302 .179 -24.3 67-3B -5 -0.7
2007 HAG 1B 385 47 29 4 16 56 25 86 7 6 -2.9 .290 .344 .534 .227 .235 .277 .412 .234 -0.3 56-3B -7 0.6
2007 POT 1C 87 8 4 0 4 10 1 22 0 2 0.8 .262 .267 .452 .006 .224 .230 .353 .193 -4.5 20-3B -4 -0.2


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 8:59 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 539 58 29 4 17 67 27 135 7 4 0.3 .253 .295 .427 -.111 .252 .295 .435 .245 4.3 127-3B 0 2.8
75o 520 51 26 3 15 61 25 135 7 4 0.3 .241 .282 .400 -.178 .241 .283 .408 .232 -4.0 123-3B -2 1.9
60o 503 45 24 3 13 55 24 135 7 4 0.3 .231 .271 .375 -.239 .230 .272 .382 .220 -11.1 119-3B -4 1.1
50o 496 43 23 3 12 53 23 134 7 4 0.3 .226 .267 .365 -.264 .226 .267 .372 .214 -13.8 117-3B -5 0.7
40o 480 38 21 2 10 49 22 134 7 4 0.3 .218 .257 .345 -.313 .217 .258 .351 .203 -19.0 114-3B -6 0.1
25o 463 33 19 2 9 44 20 133 6 4 0.3 .209 .248 .324 -.365 .209 .248 .330 .191 -23.9 110-3B -8 -0.6
10o 446 29 17 2 7 39 19 132 6 4 0.2 .200 .238 .303 -.414 .200 .238 .309 .179 -28.2 106-3B -9 -1.1
Weighted Mean 533 47 25 3 13 59 25 145 7 4 0.3 .226 .266 .363 -.269 .225 .266 .370 .213 -11.7 125-3B -6 0.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

35%

57%

25%

10%

0.92

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 24) 533 47 25 3 13 59 25 145 7 4 0.3 .226 .266 .363 -.269 .225 .266 .370 .213 -11.7 125-3B -6 0.7
2009 (age 25) 523 48 26 3 13 59 26 135 7 4 0.2 .232 .274 .377 -.230 .228 .270 .377 .221 -6.8 123-3B -5 0.8
2010 (age 26) 483 44 22 3 12 55 26 128 7 4 0.1 .232 .278 .378 -.223 .228 .274 .378 .223 -4.8 114-3B -6 0.6
2011 (age 27) 533 56 25 3 16 65 30 133 9 4 0.1 .244 .291 .405 -.154 .240 .287 .405 .238 -0.3 125-3B -6 0.8
2012 (age 28)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 30)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .197 .236 .309
vs RHP .234 .277 .399
Split -.037 -.041 -.091
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.7 1.4 0.7 $800,000 -19.1 0.3
2009 -0.2 1.0 0.8 $875,000 -11.4 0.0
2010 0.0 0.7 0.6 $750,000 -9.2 0.0
2011 0.2 0.6 0.8 $975,000 -2.8 0.5
2012 0.3 0.4 0.7 $950,000 0.1 1.4
2013 0.2 0.2 0.4 $775,000 0.2 0.9
2014 0.2 0.2 0.4 $775,000 0.1 0.6
Peak 4.0 $2,225,000 0.2 3.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .232 .214 .191 .213
2009 .247 .220 .200 .221
2010 .248 .230 .200 .223
2011 .264 .248 .220 .238
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 10% 0% 35%
2009 36% 28% 38%
2010 50% 41% 43%
2011 64% 58% 42%
2012 79% 74% 37%
2013 85% 83% 36%
2014 88% 86% 30%

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