Jason Donald

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:19 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	546	83	33	3	18	68	56	124	11	4	1.1	.284	.364	.476	.110	.285	.364	.484	.291	39.3	128-SS -7	3.7
75^o	499	64	27	2	14	56	48	119	9	3	1.0	.262	.340	.429	-.010	.263	.341	.436	.269	21.8	118-SS -6	2.2
60^o	471	54	24	2	12	50	44	115	8	3	0.9	.250	.326	.402	-.080	.250	.327	.408	.256	12.8	111-SS -5	1.4
50^o	449	48	22	2	10	45	41	112	8	3	0.8	.240	.316	.381	-.132	.241	.317	.387	.246	6.8	106-SS -5	0.8
40^o	435	44	21	2	9	42	39	110	7	3	0.8	.234	.310	.369	-.164	.235	.310	.374	.240	3.3	103-SS -5	0.5
25^o	394	34	17	2	7	35	34	103	6	2	0.7	.218	.292	.334	-.253	.218	.292	.339	.221	-5.2	94-SS -4	-0.4
10^o	355	26	15	1	5	28	29	96	5	2	0.6	.204	.276	.304	-.329	.204	.276	.308	.203	-11.0	85-SS -3	-0.9
Weighted Mean	505	59	26	2	12	54	47	124	9	3	0.8	.247	.324	.396	-.089	.247	.324	.402	.253	13.7	119-SS -6	1.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
20%	44%	35%	21%	1.20

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 24)	505	59	26	2	12	54	47	124	9	3	0.8	.247	.324	.396	-.089	.247	.324	.402	.253	13.7	119-SS -6	1.2
2010 (age 25)	426	46	21	2	11	45	39	102	7	3	0.7	.245	.319	.393	-.125	.241	.315	.393	.250	7.9	101-SS -7	0.8
2011 (age 26)	431	46	22	2	10	45	40	102	8	3	0.8	.241	.317	.389	-.136	.238	.313	.390	.248	6.7	102-SS -7	0.8
2012 (age 27)	418	45	21	2	11	44	37	101	7	2	0.6	.241	.317	.397	-.127	.238	.312	.398	.250	5.7	100-SS -8	0.6
2013 (age 28)	441	48	22	2	12	46	41	108	7	3	0.6	.239	.315	.393	-.136	.236	.311	.394	.248	4.9	105-SS -8	0.5
2014 (age 29)	358	35	17	1	10	39	31	84	6	2	0.5	.237	.308	.391	-.153	.234	.304	.392	.245	3.1	86-SS -7	0.4
2015 (age 30)	461	48	23	2	11	50	40	104	7	3	0.4	.231	.305	.376	-.181	.228	.301	.377	.238	1.2	109-SS -10	0.1

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.261	.341	.419
vs RHP	.242	.316	.382
Split	+.019	+.026	+.037
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	1.1	-6.0	1.2	$2,025,000	7.4	12.0
2010	-0.4	-7.0	0.8	$1,200,000	1.5	6.1
2011	-1.2	-7.0	0.8	$1,250,000	1.1	7.4
2012	-0.4	-8.0	0.6	$1,200,000	1.4	5.7
2013	-1.3	-8.0	0.5	$1,150,000	0.4	6.5
2014	-2.4	-7.0	0.4	$1,050,000	-0.2	4.8
2015	-6.2	-10.0	0.1	$600,000	-1.9	2.4
Peak			4.3	$4,325,000	11.7	42.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.269	.246	.221	.253
2010	.273	.257	.227	.250
2011	.275	.246	.220	.248
2012	.276	.247	.218	.250
2013	.279	.237	.223	.248
2014	.271	.247	.217	.245
2015	.276	.240	.217	.238

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	21%	0%	20%
2010	27%	7%	20%
2011	31%	15%	22%
2012	47%	35%	17%
2013	51%	37%	17%
2014	64%	45%	14%
2015	72%	59%	12%

65

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Scott Romano	1996	60		11	Joe Jester	2003	50
2	Jim Opie	1986	59		12	Chris Snopek	1995	49
3	Brian Giles	1985	57		13	Tony Manahan	1993	48
4	Erick Almonte	2002	53		14	Bobby Rose	1992	48
5	Jay Canizaro	1998	53		15	Denny Gonzalez	1988	47
6	Floyd Rayford	1982	52		16	Tim Naehring	1991	47
7	Ramon Castro	2004	52		17	Tim Teufel	1983	47
8	Ryan Raburn	2006	51		18	Derek Wachter	1995	47
9	Dave Silvestri	1992	50		19	Mike Edwards	2001	47
10	Randy Asadoor	1987	50		20	Brendan Harris	2005	47

Player Comments

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2008

Drafted out of the University of Arizona with the Phillies' third-round pick in 2006, Donald has some extra pop for a middle infielder. Given his good hands and terrific arm, he could play a bit of third base someday. His bat took a major leap forward last year after a less-than-stellar college career. He'll have to consolidate those gains in Double-A this season to prove that he deserves consideration as more than a utility player.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	BAT	A-	243	33	14	2	1	24	23	42	12	1	2.3	.263	.347	.362	-.414	.193	.255	.278	.188	-43.0	58-SS -4	-1.9
2007	LWD	A	238	41	9	3	4	30	29	39	2	5	0.4	.310	.409	.447	-.191	.239	.318	.340	.233	-5.0	52-SS 2	0.6
2007	CLR	A+	336	48	22	5	8	41	35	70	3	2	-1.6	.300	.386	.491	-.067	.246	.320	.429	.257	5.1	79-SS -9	0.4
2008	REA	AA	414	57	19	4	14	54	47	86	11	2	1.1	.307	.391	.497	.080	.280	.357	.473	.286	23.5	90-SS -16	1.5

Historical Stats