Josh Donaldson

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 8:44 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	534	61	30	2	15	63	44	107	5	2	1.0	.249	.316	.416	-.038	.255	.322	.443	.264	15.9	125-C -2	3.6
75^o	511	52	26	2	13	57	41	107	5	2	0.9	.236	.302	.386	-.116	.242	.308	.411	.249	5.9	120-C -2	2.6
60^o	494	46	24	2	11	52	38	106	4	2	0.9	.227	.291	.365	-.170	.232	.297	.389	.239	-0.5	117-C -2	1.9
50^o	485	44	23	2	11	50	37	106	4	2	0.8	.222	.286	.354	-.199	.227	.292	.377	.233	-3.8	115-C -2	1.6
40^o	469	39	21	1	9	46	35	105	4	2	0.8	.214	.277	.335	-.246	.219	.282	.357	.223	-9.0	111-C -2	1.0
25^o	450	34	19	1	8	41	32	104	4	2	0.7	.205	.266	.314	-.301	.209	.272	.335	.210	-14.3	107-C -2	0.4
10^o	411	25	15	1	5	33	28	101	3	2	0.6	.188	.247	.276	-.399	.192	.252	.294	.186	-22.6	98-C -2	-0.7
Weighted Mean	500	45	23	2	11	51	38	110	4	2	0.8	.221	.285	.351	-.221	.226	.290	.374	.231	-5.2	118-C -1	1.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
55%	73%	13%	9%	1.02

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 23)	500	45	23	2	11	51	38	110	4	2	0.8	.221	.285	.351	-.221	.226	.290	.374	.231	-5.2	118-C -1	1.4
2010 (age 24)	459	40	22	1	10	47	34	97	4	2	0.7	.221	.283	.353	-.191	.229	.293	.381	.230	-3.6	109-C 1	1.4
2011 (age 25)	394	31	17	1	9	40	29	83	3	2	0.6	.215	.278	.343	-.218	.222	.288	.370	.225	-5.1	94-C -2	0.7
2012 (age 26)	394	31	17	1	10	42	30	88	3	2	0.4	.208	.273	.344	-.233	.215	.282	.370	.223	-4.4	94-C -1	0.6
2013 (age 27)	332	27	16	1	9	36	27	68	3	2	0.3	.221	.287	.369	-.162	.228	.297	.397	.237	-0.5	80-C -2	0.6
2014 (age 28)	386	29	16	1	9	38	29	86	3	2	0.3	.206	.270	.331	-.256	.213	.279	.357	.217	-4.1	92-C 0	0.3
2015 (age 29)	403	30	16	1	9	43	27	87	2	1	0.3	.205	.262	.330	-.273	.212	.271	.356	.213	-4.7	96-C -1	0.2

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.237	.304	.380
vs RHP	.216	.277	.336
Split	+.021	+.027	+.043
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-4.5	-1.0	1.4	$1,475,000	-1.5	2.5
2010	-4.2	1.0	1.4	$1,775,000	1.8	8.2
2011	-5.7	-2.0	0.7	$975,000	-3.0	3.9
2012	-6.6	-1.0	0.6	$875,000	-2.9	3.3
2013	-0.9	-2.0	0.6	$1,275,000	0.9	3.8
2014	-8.7	0.0	0.3	$775,000	-2.7	2.9
2015	-10.5	-1.0	0.2	$575,000	-3.7	1.6
Peak			5.1	$4,225,000	0.9	24.7

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.249	.233	.210	.231
2010	.243	.229	.204	.230
2011	.245	.221	.190	.225
2012	.258	.232	.193	.223
2013	.256	.231	.209	.237
2014	.242	.220	.181	.217
2015	.254	.232	.162	.213

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	9%	0%	55%
2010	16%	9%	53%
2011	38%	17%	45%
2012	54%	35%	46%
2013	69%	48%	41%
2014	67%	54%	33%
2015	68%	58%	36%

64

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Curtis Thigpen	2006	58		11	Brook Fordyce	1993	49
2	Eli Marrero	1997	57		12	Michael McKenry	2008	48
3	Jim Campanis	1991	55		13	Creighton Gubanich	1995	48
4	Mike Lehman	1991	55		14	Lou Palmisano	2006	48
5	Tim McIntosh	1988	54		15	John Ackley	1985	47
6	Jeff Mathis	2006	54		16	Tripper Johnson	2005	47
7	Mark Berry	1986	51		17	Jake Fox	2006	46
8	Nick Hundley	2007	51		18	Kurt Suzuki	2007	46
9	Ed Hearn	1984	50		19	Giuseppe Chiaramonte	1999	46
10	John Roskos	1998	50		20	Mike Berger	1986	45

Player Comments

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2008

Donaldson's numbers were just awesome at Low-A Boise last year. Although he just missed qualifying for the Pioneer League batting title, he would have ranked second in that department and first in the league in both on-base percentage and slugging had he qualified. PECOTA hedges on those numbers a bit, with its inherent skepticism toward accomplished college players playing short-season ball, but Donaldson is a considerably better athlete than comparables such as Thigpen. If he can catch-and the jury is still out on that-he could emerge as one of the major sleepers of the 2007 draft.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2007	CUB	Rk	13	1	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	1	-0.5	.182	.308	.364	-.689	.083	.154	.250	.000	-5.4		-0.4
2007	BOI	A-	202	37	11	2	9	35	37	34	6	2	2.1	.346	.470	.605	-.172	.219	.310	.376	.242	-5.7	41-C 0	0.6
2008	PEO	A	254	27	13	0	6	23	17	41	7	1	1.2	.217	.276	.349	-.473	.176	.224	.285	.170	-27.5	52-C -1	-1.5
2008	STO	A+	207	37	13	2	9	39	17	29	0	2	1.0	.330	.391	.564	-.002	.267	.324	.461	.264	6.9	42-C 0	1.1

Historical Stats