Michael Dubee

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	PHL	OR	0	1	0	2	1	7.0	9	0	1	0	58%	.346	-22	1.29	1.29	6.53	3.18	14.3	1.6	0.0	0.0	1.5		0.3
2006	BAT	1A	1	2	0	10	9	37.0	49	15	27	2	59%	.388	-67	1.73	4.86	17.61	14.28	18.0	8.4	2.8	2.5	-28.0		-2.2
2007	LWD	1B	4	4	1	30	0	55.7	52	22	54	2	54%	.325	-19	1.33	3.88	6.40	6.52	11.0	6.0	5.0	0.9	-4.9		0.5
2007	KAN	1B	3	0	0	8	6	33.0	34	13	35	3	45%	.356	-15	1.42	4.09	7.81	6.67	11.4	6.0	5.7	1.9	-3.4		0.2

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 8:34 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	5	0	29	11	80.0	86	51	51	8	50%	.303	-6	1.71	4.61	5.01	4.37	9.2	5.1	5.1	0.9	10.6	1.4	1.8
75^o	3	5	0	28	10	72.3	87	51	45	10	50%	.322	-14	1.90	5.97	6.08	5.63	10.3	5.6	5.1	1.3	-1.6	0.2	0.6
60^o	3	5	0	28	10	69.3	88	50	43	11	50%	.331	-17	1.98	6.58	6.56	6.20	10.8	5.8	5.0	1.4	-6.4	-0.3	0.1
50^o	3	5	0	27	9	67.0	88	50	41	11	50%	.337	-19	2.05	7.07	6.95	6.65	11.2	6.0	5.0	1.5	-9.9	-0.6	-0.2
40^o	2	5	0	26	9	62.0	87	49	38	12	50%	.350	-25	2.19	8.11	7.76	7.60	12.0	6.4	4.9	1.7	-16.5	-1.2	-0.9
25^o	2	5	0	25	8	54.7	85	47	33	13	49%	.369	-33	2.41	9.82	9.01	9.17	13.3	6.9	4.8	2.1	-25.2	-2.1	-1.8
10^o	1	4	0	21	6	46.3	62	35	28	8	48%	.340	-29	2.08	12.59	7.12	12.83	11.4	6.1	5.0	1.6	-42.3	-3.6	-3.4
Weighted Mean	2	5	0	25	8	59.3	78	44	36	10	50%	.337	-20	2.05	7.18	6.96	6.76	11.2	6.0	5.0	1.5	-10.1	-0.6	-0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
40%	62%	17%	16%	1.35

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 22)	2	5	0	25	8	59.3	78	44	36	10	50%	.337	-20	2.05	7.18	6.96	6.76	11.2	6.0	5.0	1.5	-10.1	-0.6	-0.2
2009 (age 23)	2	5	0	25	8	60.0	75	43	39	10	50%	.326	-18	1.94	6.90	6.49	6.52	10.6	5.7	5.2	1.5	-6.3	-0.5	0.0
2010 (age 24)	3	5	0	26	8	64.3	76	41	41	10	50%	.316	-13	1.80	6.04	5.79	5.73	10.0	5.1	5.2	1.3	-1.2	0.1	0.3
2011 (age 25)	3	5	0	31	9	76.3	90	44	50	10	50%	.319	-10	1.74	6.00	5.50	5.73	10.0	4.6	5.3	1.2	-1.1	0.1	0.3
2012 (age 26)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 27)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.286	.423	.462
vs RHB	.287	.400	.436
Split	-.001	+.023	+.025
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	-0.2	$400,000	-9.0	1.8
2009	0.0	$400,000	-5.5	2.8
2010	0.3	$525,000	-0.7	1.8
2011	0.3	$525,000	-0.7	1.3
2012	0.1	$450,000	-0.7	0.5
2013	0.2	$575,000	0.6	0.6
2014	0.1	$400,000	-0.4	0.4
Peak	1.0	$375,000	0.6	8.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	5.63	6.65	9.17	6.76
2009	5.80	7.54	10.25	6.52
2010	5.00	6.13	7.69	5.73
2011	4.41	5.58	7.87	5.73
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	16%	0%	40%
2009	43%	21%	32%
2010	61%	50%	34%
2011	68%	62%	29%
2012	78%	73%	24%
2013	85%	85%	22%
2014	91%	91%	16%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

61

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Julio Perez	2001	69		11	Heath Bell	2000	45
2	Danny Vais	2007	54		12	Harvey Garcia	2006	45
3	Steve Long	1992	53		13	Jason Burch	2005	44
4	Julio DePaula	2005	53		14	Jesse Chavez	2006	44
5	Brent Iddon	1998	53		15	Andres Berumen	1993	44
6	Timothy Carr	2000	52		16	Derek Brown	1999	43
7	Mike Ferry	1992	49		17	Hal Garrett	1997	43
8	Robert Weslowski	2001	47		18	German Marte	2007	43
9	Mick Pageler	1998	47		19	Nigel Alejo	1997	43
10	Ricky Steik	2006	46		20	William Fleck	1999	42

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