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A.J. Ellis
Los Angeles Dodgers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 27
6' 3"
240 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 VRO 1C 206 27 8 0 3 22 22 26 1 3 0.8 .256 .356 .352 -.016 .214 .298 .291 .207 -8.9 51-C 11 2.0
2006 JAX 2A 314 34 9 1 0 21 53 53 2 0 -2.7 .250 .383 .294 .025 .236 .356 .286 .243 -2.3 78-C 1 2.4
2007 JAX 2A 430 59 22 2 8 57 60 61 1 4 -0.6 .269 .382 .409 .145 .245 .344 .383 .257 9.8 103-C 1 3.8


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 9:37 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 451 68 23 1 10 52 63 77 5 2 -0.3 .279 .384 .424 .059 .277 .381 .428 .283 24.6 107-C 4 5.2
75o 411 52 19 1 7 43 52 72 4 2 -0.2 .260 .360 .382 -.051 .258 .357 .386 .262 11.9 98-C 2 3.8
60o 394 46 17 1 6 39 48 70 4 2 -0.2 .252 .349 .365 -.098 .250 .346 .369 .253 7.1 94-C 2 3.3
50o 376 40 16 1 5 36 44 67 3 2 -0.2 .244 .339 .348 -.144 .242 .336 .351 .243 2.7 90-C 1 2.8
40o 366 38 15 1 5 34 42 66 3 2 -0.2 .240 .333 .338 -.169 .238 .330 .342 .238 0.5 88-C 1 2.5
25o 347 33 13 1 4 30 38 63 3 2 -0.2 .233 .323 .322 -.213 .231 .320 .325 .228 -3.1 84-C 1 2.0
10o 300 23 10 0 2 23 29 57 2 1 -0.1 .215 .298 .283 -.319 .213 .296 .286 .203 -10.1 73-C 0 1.0
Weighted Mean 401 46 17 1 6 39 48 71 4 2 -0.2 .249 .344 .357 -.118 .247 .342 .361 .247 7.5 96-C 3 3.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

25%

44%

20%

25%

0.87

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 27) 401 46 17 1 6 39 48 71 4 2 -0.2 .249 .344 .357 -.118 .247 .342 .361 .247 7.5 96-C 3 3.2
2009 (age 28) 364 40 16 1 6 34 42 62 4 2 -0.2 .250 .343 .361 -.115 .244 .335 .358 .248 3.9 87-C 2 2.3
2010 (age 29) 317 32 13 1 5 29 34 54 3 1 -0.1 .248 .336 .360 -.130 .243 .328 .357 .244 2.1 77-C 1 1.5
2011 (age 30) 318 33 13 1 5 31 36 53 3 1 -0.1 .244 .338 .355 -.135 .238 .330 .352 .245 1.5 77-C 2 1.2
2012 (age 31) 307 31 13 1 5 29 37 50 3 1 -0.1 .244 .344 .349 -.132 .239 .336 .346 .245 1.2 75-C 1 0.9
2013 (age 32) 263 25 12 1 4 26 29 40 2 1 -0.1 .257 .345 .371 -.094 .251 .337 .368 .251 1.7 65-C -1 0.7
2014 (age 33) 224 20 11 0 4 23 27 35 1 1 -0.1 .250 .348 .367 -.099 .244 .340 .364 .251 1.4 56-C -3 0.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .264 .361 .385
vs RHP .244 .336 .342
Split +.021 +.025 +.043
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.7 2.6 3.2 $5,375,000 7.5 8.7
2009 0.5 1.7 2.3 $3,550,000 4.6 7.3
2010 0.3 1.2 1.5 $2,200,000 2.1 5.6
2011 0.2 1.0 1.2 $1,950,000 2.1 3.7
2012 0.2 0.7 0.9 $1,350,000 0.9 2.6
2013 0.2 0.5 0.7 $1,375,000 1.5 2.1
2014 0.2 0.4 0.6 $1,000,000 0.4 1.3
Peak 9.9 $12,000,000 18.6 30.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .262 .243 .228 .247
2009 .268 .247 .230 .248
2010 .267 .247 .225 .244
2011 .271 .246 .214 .245
2012 .261 .248 .231 .245
2013 .271 .252 .229 .251
2014 .271 .256 .236 .251


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 25% 0% 25%
2009 41% 25% 18%
2010 54% 37% 14%
2011 69% 50% 15%
2012 72% 59% 10%
2013 79% 64% 10%
2014 79% 65% 9%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

44

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Brad King 1992 40 11 Danny Ardoin 2003 33
2 Doug Mirabelli 1979 36 12 Doug Newstrom 1971 33
3 Brian Loyd 1981 36 13 D.J. Boston 1982 33
4 Jim Foster 1970 36 14 Doug Robbins 1960 33
5 Ryan Robertson 1973 35 15 Rodney Nye 2007 32
6 Alberto Castillo 1992 35 16 Justin Gemoll 1975 32
7 Nate Espy 1975 34 17 Michel Hernandez 1969 32
8 Carlos Maldonado 1975 34 18 Jim Mcnamara 2000 31
9 Eric Battersby 1957 34 19 Mike Moyle 1979 30
10 Keith Mcdonald 1998 33 20 Adam Melhuse 2005 30

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