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Alex Escobar
Washington Nationals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Center Field
Bats R
Age 29
6' 1"
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
ESPN Player Card
tsn.ca Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 NAT 0R 9 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 -0.1 .143 .333 .143 -.253 .125 .300 .125 .162 -2.9 0.0
2006 HAR 2A 150 21 11 0 5 26 20 23 2 2 0.8 .311 .440 .525 .380 .291 .404 .504 .306 11.6 19-RF -1 1.5
2006 WAS MJ 99 14 3 2 4 18 8 18 2 0 0.2 .356 .394 .575 .427 .372 .408 .593 .337 13.3 20-CF 0 1.6
2007 POT 1C 9 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0.0 .125 .222 .125 -.591 .125 .222 .125 .067 -1.6 0.0
2007 HAR 2A 17 0 2 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 -0.1 .188 .176 .313 -.445 .188 .176 .375 .205 -1.6 0.0
2007 COH 3A 31 3 1 0 0 1 4 9 0 0 -0.1 .148 .258 .185 -.444 .148 .258 .185 .150 -3.9 0.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 9:45 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 361 65 22 2 12 44 36 64 9 2 0.3 .294 .371 .489 .135 .294 .371 .498 .295 22.9 87-CF -4 3.6
75o 347 58 21 2 11 42 34 63 9 2 0.3 .284 .361 .467 .081 .284 .361 .476 .286 17.7 84-CF -4 3.2
60o 328 49 18 2 9 39 32 62 8 2 0.2 .270 .347 .437 .005 .269 .347 .446 .273 10.8 79-CF -4 2.5
50o 321 47 18 1 8 38 31 61 8 2 0.2 .265 .342 .427 -.020 .264 .343 .435 .269 8.7 78-CF -4 2.3
40o 302 39 16 1 7 35 29 59 7 2 0.2 .251 .329 .398 -.091 .251 .329 .406 .256 3.1 73-CF -4 1.8
25o 265 28 12 1 5 29 24 56 6 2 0.2 .227 .304 .347 -.219 .226 .305 .353 .231 -5.2 65-CF -4 0.9
10o 110 4 3 0 0 10 9 29 2 1 0.1 .154 .230 .193 -.591 .154 .230 .197 .126 -11.9 30-CF -2 -0.5
Weighted Mean 268 35 15 1 7 32 26 51 6 2 0.2 .266 .343 .429 -.015 .265 .343 .437 .269 11.6 66-CF -3 2.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

7%

35%

37%

37%

1.15

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 29) 268 35 15 1 7 32 26 51 6 2 0.2 .266 .343 .429 -.015 .265 .343 .437 .269 11.6 66-CF -3 2.5
2009 (age 30) 295 41 15 1 7 35 31 55 8 2 0.1 .262 .345 .416 -.031 .258 .340 .417 .268 5.1 72-CF -4 1.4
2010 (age 31) 312 45 16 1 8 35 30 55 6 2 0.1 .271 .349 .430 .000 .267 .344 .430 .271 4.8 76-CF -4 1.2
2011 (age 32) 152 16 8 1 4 18 15 27 2 1 0.0 .273 .351 .424 -.003 .269 .346 .424 .270 2.4 40-CF -3 0.6
2012 (age 33)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 34)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 35)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .281 .361 .455
vs RHP .260 .334 .411
Split +.020 +.027 +.044
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.2 1.3 2.5 $4,400,000 9.8 8.4
2009 0.8 0.6 1.4 $2,125,000 3.4 3.0
2010 0.6 0.5 1.2 $2,075,000 4.2 4.3
2011 0.3 0.3 0.6 $1,150,000 1.9 1.3
2012 0.3 0.2 0.4 $875,000 1.0 1.5
2013 0.2 0.1 0.3 $800,000 1.0 0.7
2014 0.1 0.1 0.1 $500,000 -0.2 0.0
Peak 6.3 $8,225,000 21.3 19.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .286 .269 .231 .269
2009 .293 .269 .232 .268
2010 .294 .271 .252 .271
2011 .283 .268 .234 .270
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 37% 0% 7%
2009 38% 29% 8%
2010 52% 48% 7%
2011 70% 66% 5%
2012 77% 70% 6%
2013 87% 84% 8%
2014 91% 91% 2%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

When Escobar slugged .584 as a 19-year-old in the Sally League back in the sunny summer of 1998, so many things seemed possible; if nothing else, the young man was on the fast track. He then missed all but three games of 1999, all of 2002 and 2005, and large parts of 2004 and 2006 due to injury. Suddenly he`s Roy Hobbs. Nats fans got to see little of him last year before he strained a hamstring, got an infected knee, and tore up a shoulder--all in little more than a month. What they did see gave them a peek into his tremendous ability--the man can cover ground, and has a quick swing and excellent power. If some heroes have feet of clay, Escobar`s appear to be made out of porcelain. Given his obvious fragility, a role as the fourth outfielder and defensive replacement in center, allowing him to be swapped in on double-switches for Snelling or Church, would provide solid tactical value while making sure he gets playing time.

2003

It’s pointless now to speculate where Escobar should be placed on prospect lists. He’s lost too much time to injuries, his minor league lines are cryptic and tainted by word that Mets coaches tinkering with his swing kept him confused and ill-at-ease. What do we know? Healthy, Escobar plays major league–quality defense in center field. He’s walked in a little under 10% of his minor league PAs, and he strikes out about a quarter of the time. He hits for some power. And now he’s 24 and has lost another year. Despite the pressure to see the once-prospect at the major league level, the Indians should let Escobar progress on his own, try to get him consistent hitting instruction, and see what happens.

2002

Escobar's debut at the big-league level-in fact, his whole season—was a bust. He showed occasional flashes of the tools that excite scouts, but his strike-zone judgment completely fell apart, and the results weren't pretty. He's still a good prospect, it's just time to remove the "potential superstar" label. Milton Bradley is a much better player right now, so Escobar faces an uphill battle in Cleveland.

2001

Alex Escobar is the crown jewel of the Mets’ depleted farm system. After missing almost the entire 1999 season with a pair of injuries, Escobar played nearly every day in 2000 and didn’t suffer any injuries until the second to last day of the playoffs. He was almost as good as advertised in Binghamton: he drew some walks, had good but not great power, and played a solid center field. The Mets were reportedly very pleased with his attitude and work ethic, despite rumors to the contrary. If he stays healthy, he’ll be a star.

2000

Escobar, who had two injury-plagued seasons in the Gulf Coast League prior to 1998, shot to the top of many prospect charts with a dazzling five-tool display that earned him the Sally League's 1998 MVP award. Unfortunately, the injuries came back this year; a stress fracture in his back kept him out until June. After two GCL games, he ruined his non-throwing shoulder while hitting a home run and was lost for the duration. He’s much too talented to disappear on that note.

1999

Tremendous talent who is in the process of putting his tools to good use on the diamond. I say "in the process" because he still has room for improvement, despite his great season. While his walk rate is adequate and improving, he still struggles with pitch selection. He’s also missed time in the last few years with leg injuries. All that aside, he's already the best hitting prospect in the system and one of the best in baseball, and he could get even better before he reaches the majors.


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