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He's probably very handsome. Nick Evans
New York Mets [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
First Base
Bats R
Age 22
6' 2"
180 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 KNG 0R 68 11 7 0 6 22 4 17 1 0 -1.3 .344 .382 .734 .605 .215 .250 .415 .226 -6.4 11-1B 1 0.1
2005 BRO 1A 245 30 11 3 6 33 17 34 0 1 -0.2 .252 .302 .407 .022 .190 .228 .297 .171 -48.0 56-1B -3 -0.7
2006 HAG 1B 565 55 33 3 15 67 45 99 2 0 -2.3 .254 .320 .419 .061 .207 .258 .337 .204 -42.6 127-1B -9 -0.9
2007 SLU 1C 440 65 25 1 15 54 53 64 3 0 -0.4 .286 .374 .476 .210 .251 .333 .429 .265 4.9 101-1B 3 2.8


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 9:47 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 499 62 27 1 16 66 51 91 3 1 -0.8 .265 .344 .438 -.002 .268 .348 .456 .274 12.2 118-1B 0 3.1
75o 469 50 24 1 13 57 43 89 3 1 -0.7 .250 .323 .406 -.092 .254 .327 .422 .256 1.3 111-1B 1 2.2
60o 449 44 22 1 11 52 38 87 3 1 -0.6 .241 .309 .385 -.151 .244 .313 .400 .244 -5.1 107-1B 1 1.6
50o 438 40 21 1 10 49 36 87 3 1 -0.6 .236 .302 .373 -.183 .239 .305 .388 .237 -8.3 104-1B 2 1.3
40o 430 38 21 1 10 46 34 86 3 1 -0.6 .232 .296 .365 -.206 .236 .299 .380 .232 -10.5 102-1B 2 1.1
25o 407 32 19 1 8 41 29 84 2 1 -0.5 .223 .281 .343 -.268 .226 .285 .357 .218 -16.0 97-1B 2 0.6
10o 387 27 17 1 7 36 25 82 2 1 -0.5 .215 .269 .326 -.318 .218 .272 .339 .207 -19.9 93-1B 2 0.2
Weighted Mean 474 46 23 1 11 53 39 93 3 1 -0.6 .238 .304 .377 -.173 .241 .308 .392 .238 -4.8 112-1B 2 1.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

39%

62%

10%

11%

1.08

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 22) 474 46 23 1 11 53 39 93 3 1 -0.6 .238 .304 .377 -.173 .241 .308 .392 .238 -4.8 112-1B 2 1.5
2009 (age 23) 459 44 22 1 11 52 38 87 3 1 -0.6 .237 .303 .377 -.175 .236 .302 .385 .237 -6.8 109-1B 1 1.1
2010 (age 24) 420 40 21 1 11 49 34 77 3 1 -0.5 .243 .308 .393 -.140 .243 .307 .402 .244 -2.9 100-1B 0 1.1
2011 (age 25) 380 35 18 1 11 48 31 70 2 1 -0.4 .242 .308 .391 -.144 .241 .307 .400 .244 -2.6 91-1B 0 0.9
2012 (age 26) 366 35 18 1 11 46 31 66 2 1 -0.4 .247 .316 .404 -.110 .247 .314 .413 .251 -0.3 88-1B 0 0.9
2013 (age 27) 486 53 23 1 14 62 44 86 3 2 -0.3 .251 .321 .406 -.095 .251 .319 .415 .253 0.4 115-1B 1 0.9
2014 (age 28) 490 53 24 1 14 59 42 89 4 1 -0.3 .251 .318 .403 -.104 .251 .317 .412 .251 0.0 116-1B 2 0.8

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .253 .324 .404
vs RHP .233 .296 .361
Split +.021 +.028 +.043
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.4 1.1 1.5 $1,625,000 -5.4 0.1
2009 0.4 0.7 1.1 $1,250,000 -8.7 0.4
2010 0.6 0.5 1.1 $1,300,000 -5.4 0.8
2011 0.4 0.4 0.9 $1,100,000 -4.6 0.7
2012 0.5 0.4 0.9 $1,225,000 -1.8 1.2
2013 0.5 0.4 0.9 $1,300,000 -0.5 0.6
2014 0.4 0.4 0.8 $1,225,000 -0.8 0.4
Peak 6.6 $4,800,000 -0.5 4.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .256 .237 .218 .238
2009 .260 .237 .223 .237
2010 .265 .248 .231 .244
2011 .266 .249 .222 .244
2012 .268 .259 .233 .251
2013 .277 .261 .243 .253
2014 .274 .257 .239 .251


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 11% 0% 39%
2009 18% 7% 31%
2010 25% 14% 43%
2011 43% 29% 41%
2012 53% 36% 45%
2013 63% 50% 41%
2014 70% 62% 45%

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