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He's probably very handsome. Steven Evarts
Atlanta Braves [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 20
6' 3"
180 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 BRA OR 2 2 0 11 9 43.2 42 12 33 0 58% .262 -19 1.25 2.92 6.50 6.87 12.0 5.4 3.2 0.5 -5.2 0.0
2007 DNV 0R 4 0 0 8 7 37.0 29 4 34 0 69% .284 -7 0.89 1.95 5.17 5.68 9.7 3.4 3.4 0.6 -0.3 0.5


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 8:44 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 9 8 0 25 25 144.0 161 55 69 14 53% .299 2 1.50 4.47 4.99 4.81 9.8 3.0 3.9 0.9 15.0 2.6 3.0
75o 7 9 0 24 24 135.0 158 57 62 16 53% .305 -3 1.59 5.08 5.53 5.46 10.3 3.4 3.7 1.0 3.9 1.4 1.8
60o 6 9 0 23 23 127.3 155 59 56 16 53% .310 -7 1.68 5.62 6.00 6.03 10.7 3.7 3.6 1.1 -4.6 0.5 0.9
50o 6 9 0 23 23 124.3 154 59 54 17 53% .312 -9 1.71 5.83 6.19 6.25 10.8 3.8 3.5 1.1 -7.7 0.2 0.6
40o 5 9 0 22 22 115.3 149 60 47 17 53% .319 -14 1.81 6.50 6.79 6.96 11.3 4.2 3.3 1.3 -16.6 -0.7 -0.4
25o 4 9 0 28 18 103.0 142 61 39 18 53% .328 -25 1.97 7.48 7.67 7.99 12.1 4.8 3.1 1.5 -27.1 -1.9 -1.5
10o 3 8 0 28 15 82.7 127 59 26 18 53% .343 -40 2.25 9.21 9.27 9.79 13.4 5.8 2.6 1.9 -39.0 -3.2 -2.9
Weighted Mean 6 10 0 24 24 128.3 161 63 55 18 53% .314 -10 1.74 6.06 6.38 6.49 11.0 4.0 3.4 1.2 -10.6 -0.2 0.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

9%

33%

29%

12%

1.42

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 20) 6 10 0 24 24 128.3 161 63 55 18 53% .314 -10 1.74 6.06 6.38 6.49 11.0 4.0 3.4 1.2 -10.6 -0.2 0.0
2009 (age 21) 6 9 0 34 20 124.7 151 52 61 14 53% .315 -9 1.62 5.46 5.70 5.87 10.6 3.4 4.0 1.0 -2.0 0.6 0.8
2010 (age 22) 6 8 0 36 18 121.0 144 48 62 13 53% .314 -8 1.58 5.36 5.48 5.79 10.4 3.2 4.2 0.9 -0.9 0.6 0.7
2011 (age 23) 6 8 0 37 17 120.7 141 46 59 12 54% .311 -8 1.55 5.21 5.23 5.66 10.3 3.1 4.0 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.9
2012 (age 24) 6 8 0 38 16 116.7 140 43 64 11 53% .322 -5 1.57 5.10 5.36 5.51 10.5 3.0 4.5 0.8 1.9 0.9 0.9
2013 (age 25) 4 4 0 23 8 62.7 70 21 36 6 55% .307 -3 1.45 4.61 4.77 5.01 9.8 2.6 4.6 0.8 4.7 0.8 1.0
2014 (age 26) 4 5 0 30 10 79.0 89 27 37 6 56% .302 -8 1.46 4.76 4.64 5.22 9.8 2.7 3.8 0.7 3.5 0.8 0.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .267 .339 .368
vs RHB .290 .374 .435
Split -.022 -.035 -.067
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.0 $400,000 -13.2 1.4
2009 0.8 $900,000 -4.2 6.1
2010 0.7 $875,000 -2.7 2.8
2011 0.9 $1,125,000 -1.3 6.6
2012 0.9 $1,300,000 0.3 4.7
2013 1.0 $2,175,000 3.7 2.4
2014 0.9 $1,850,000 2.4 1.6
Peak 5.3 $4,325,000 7.1 24.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 5.46 6.25 7.99 6.49
2009 4.99 6.05 7.32 5.87
2010 4.76 5.86 7.24 5.79
2011 4.59 6.23 7.71 5.66
2012 4.40 5.55 6.98 5.51
2013 4.37 5.20 6.76 5.01
2014 5.09 5.51 6.53 5.22


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 12% 0% 9%
2009 14% 3% 20%
2010 33% 16% 23%
2011 33% 18% 23%
2012 40% 26% 24%
2013 66% 39% 19%
2014 75% 46% 16%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

12

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Rich Rundles 2002 41 11 Brandon League 2003 19
2 Bobby Livingston 2003 35 12 John Thomas 2002 17
3 Jaime Garcia 2007 33 13 Juan Rodriguez 2002 17
4 Dontrelle Willis 2002 27 14 Matt Thompson 2002 16
5 Sean Burnett 2003 24 15 Jimmy Anderson 1996 16
6 Chad Zerbe 1993 23 16 Blake Johnson 2006 16
7 Aaron Thompson 2007 23 17 Yorman Bazardo 2005 15
8 Nick Adenhart 2007 21 18 Brian Barkley 1996 15
9 Mitch Talbot 2004 21 19 Justin Miller 1998 15
10 Jair Jurrjens 2006 21 20 Mark Pawelek 2007 15

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