Miguel Fermin

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008	JAM	A-	258	54	13	2	17	47	9	43	6	1	3.4	.347	.374	.628	-.248	.222	.241	.411	.220	-17.4	56-C -2	-0.4

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 8:23 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	534	65	31	3	21	65	29	134	6	4	2.0	.258	.305	.461	-.012	.262	.305	.480	.262	19.5	125-C -2	3.6
75^o	496	51	27	3	16	57	25	129	6	3	1.8	.240	.283	.416	-.128	.243	.284	.433	.241	4.7	117-C -3	2.0
60^o	478	46	25	3	14	53	23	127	5	3	1.7	.231	.273	.395	-.181	.234	.274	.411	.231	-1.4	113-C -3	1.3
50^o	463	41	23	2	13	50	21	124	5	3	1.6	.224	.265	.379	-.223	.227	.266	.394	.222	-5.9	110-C -4	0.8
40^o	455	39	22	2	12	48	21	123	5	3	1.5	.221	.261	.370	-.245	.223	.261	.385	.217	-8.2	108-C -4	0.5
25^o	430	33	20	2	10	44	18	119	4	2	1.4	.211	.249	.345	-.308	.213	.249	.359	.204	-14.0	102-C -4	-0.2
10^o	404	27	18	2	8	39	16	114	3	2	1.3	.200	.237	.321	-.370	.203	.237	.334	.188	-19.0	96-C -5	-0.8
Weighted Mean	503	45	25	3	14	54	23	136	5	3	1.5	.222	.263	.373	-.242	.225	.263	.388	.219	-4.7	119-C -3	0.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
27%	45%	26%	13%	1.18

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 24)	503	45	25	3	14	54	23	136	5	3	1.5	.222	.263	.373	-.242	.225	.263	.388	.219	-4.7	119-C -3	0.7
2010 (age 25)	445	39	22	2	12	47	20	114	5	3	1.2	.226	.265	.375	-.243	.225	.262	.385	.221	-4.5	106-C -1	0.8
2011 (age 26)	392	34	19	2	12	43	18	100	4	3	0.9	.225	.264	.384	-.232	.224	.261	.395	.223	-2.7	94-C -3	0.7
2012 (age 27)	355	29	17	2	10	38	18	90	4	2	0.7	.222	.267	.375	-.242	.222	.264	.385	.222	-2.3	85-C -2	0.4
2013 (age 28)	330	27	16	2	10	39	16	82	3	2	0.5	.227	.268	.391	-.215	.227	.265	.401	.226	-0.9	80-C -2	0.3
2014 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.238	.280	.398
vs RHP	.218	.256	.360
Split	+.020	+.024	+.038
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-9.4	-3.0	0.7	$425,000	-6.6	3.3
2010	-7.6	-1.0	0.8	$750,000	-4.6	2.3
2011	-5.9	-3.0	0.7	$850,000	-3.5	4.1
2012	-5.6	-2.0	0.4	$775,000	-2.4	2.8
2013	-3.7	-2.0	0.3	$850,000	-1.2	1.4
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			3.2	$2,550,000	0.0	15.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.241	.222	.204	.219
2010	.243	.224	.190	.221
2011	.248	.226	.184	.223
2012	.241	.214	.181	.222
2013	.253	.231	.203	.226
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	13%	0%	27%
2010	33%	21%	28%
2011	52%	34%	30%
2012	65%	51%	20%
2013	77%	63%	25%
2014	82%	69%	22%
2015	87%	78%	17%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

17

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jose Lopez	1999	30		11	Wilmer Caraballo	1987	22
2	Tim McIntosh	1989	26		12	Mike Rivera	2001	22
3	Carlos Ponce	1983	26		13	Raymundo Torres	1982	22
4	Angel Pena	1999	25		14	Cesar Hernandez	1991	21
5	Tom Romano	1983	25		15	Danny Lamar	1985	21
6	Travis Wilson	2001	24		16	Amilcar Valdez	1990	20
7	Steve Hagins	1999	23		17	Marcos Armas	1993	20
8	Pascual Matos	1999	23		18	Leo Vargas	1982	20
9	Salomon Manriquez	2007	23		19	Wilfredo Tejada	1987	20
10	Erick Monzon	2006	23		20	Miguel Olivo	2002	20

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