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He's probably very handsome. Glenn Gibson
Tampa Bay Rays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 20
6' 4"
195 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 VER 1A 0 0 0 3 3 6.2 2 0 7 0 54% .154 14 0.32 0.00 1.93 0.00 3.2 1.6 4.8 0.0 3.5 0.2
2007 VER 1A 4 3 0 12 12 58.0 47 15 58 3 43% .293 -8 1.07 3.10 6.08 6.08 10.2 4.3 4.8 1.6 -2.7 0.5


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 9:10 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 8 9 0 25 25 140.3 147 68 81 19 43% .284 2 1.53 4.79 5.05 4.91 9.2 3.9 4.7 1.2 11.2 2.2 2.4
75o 7 9 0 24 24 132.3 148 68 74 21 43% .293 -3 1.63 5.52 5.66 5.62 9.8 4.2 4.5 1.4 -1.0 0.9 1.1
60o 6 10 0 24 24 128.0 148 68 70 21 43% .298 -6 1.69 5.93 6.01 6.02 10.2 4.3 4.4 1.5 -7.3 0.3 0.5
50o 5 10 0 23 23 123.0 148 68 66 22 44% .304 -9 1.76 6.42 6.43 6.50 10.6 4.5 4.3 1.7 -14.2 -0.5 -0.2
40o 4 10 0 23 23 116.3 147 68 60 24 44% .311 -14 1.85 7.08 7.00 7.14 11.1 4.8 4.2 1.8 -22.7 -1.3 -1.1
25o 3 10 0 22 22 106.7 145 67 53 25 44% .322 -21 1.99 8.09 7.87 8.11 11.9 5.1 4.0 2.1 -33.5 -2.5 -2.2
10o 2 9 0 25 18 88.7 138 64 39 26 44% .342 -37 2.27 10.14 9.66 10.06 13.6 5.9 3.6 2.7 -49.2 -4.2 -3.9
Weighted Mean 5 11 0 25 25 131.0 160 74 70 25 44% .306 -10 1.78 6.61 6.58 6.68 10.7 4.6 4.3 1.7 -16.3 -0.8 -0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

7%

36%

34%

10%

1.53

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 20) 5 11 0 25 25 131.0 160 74 70 25 44% .306 -10 1.78 6.61 6.58 6.68 10.7 4.6 4.3 1.7 -16.3 -0.8 -0.2
2009 (age 21) 7 10 0 25 25 139.7 158 67 79 21 43% .297 -3 1.60 5.51 5.57 5.63 9.9 3.9 4.6 1.4 -0.9 1.0 1.1
2010 (age 22) 5 8 0 28 18 108.3 125 55 60 18 43% .299 -11 1.66 6.00 5.87 6.12 10.2 4.2 4.5 1.5 -6.7 0.0 0.5
2011 (age 23) 5 8 0 33 17 107.7 126 54 60 17 44% .304 -13 1.67 6.10 5.94 6.23 10.3 4.1 4.5 1.4 -7.5 -0.2 0.3
2012 (age 24) 6 8 0 37 18 121.3 137 51 75 18 44% .302 -5 1.55 5.31 5.37 5.42 10.0 3.4 5.0 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.0
2013 (age 25) 4 6 1 33 11 85.0 95 33 53 13 43% .299 -6 1.50 5.27 5.18 5.40 9.8 3.1 5.0 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.9
2014 (age 26) 2 4 0 20 6 51.3 59 20 30 8 44% .302 -9 1.54 5.60 5.36 5.74 10.1 3.2 4.7 1.4 -1.2 0.1 0.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .259 .361 .420
vs RHB .276 .372 .467
Split -.017 -.011 -.047
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 -0.2 $400,000 -15.8 1.6
2009 1.1 $1,250,000 -0.8 6.1
2010 0.5 $625,000 -6.5 3.8
2011 0.3 $525,000 -7.2 3.9
2012 1.0 $1,550,000 1.4 5.0
2013 0.9 $1,525,000 1.4 3.4
2014 0.5 $750,000 -1.2 1.7
Peak 4.3 $2,975,000 2.8 24.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 5.62 6.50 8.11 6.68
2009 4.59 5.55 7.11 5.63
2010 5.00 6.22 7.38 6.12
2011 5.08 6.52 7.46 6.23
2012 4.64 5.61 6.86 5.42
2013 4.55 5.55 6.93 5.40
2014 4.86 6.14 7.46 5.74


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 10% 0% 7%
2009 23% 11% 29%
2010 26% 13% 22%
2011 29% 17% 18%
2012 45% 31% 19%
2013 58% 36% 20%
2014 69% 43% 9%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

54

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Chris Narveson 2002 67 11 Ryan Feierabend 2006 43
2 Joel Adamson 1992 60 12 Mike Kusiewicz 1997 42
3 MATT ANDERSON 1992 58 13 Bobby Livingston 2003 42
4 Jimmy Gobble 2002 58 14 Gabe White 1992 41
5 Larry Wimberly 1996 53 15 Troy Patton 2006 41
6 Derrick Van_Dusen 2002 50 16 Brandon Claussen 2000 40
7 Jake Stevens 2005 49 17 Travis Blackley 2003 39
8 Scott Comer 1998 47 18 Greg Miller 2000 38
9 Eddie Priest 1995 46 19 Steve Garrison 2007 38
10 Carlos Perez 1992 43 20 Gaby Hernandez 2007 37

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