Tuffy Gosewisch

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:20 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	343	31	17	1	6	31	27	71	1	1	-0.9	.216	.285	.330	-.271	.216	.285	.335	.215	-7.8	83-C 4	1.0
75^o	312	21	12	1	4	25	21	67	1	1	-0.8	.189	.250	.277	-.421	.189	.250	.281	.177	-18.0	76-C 3	-0.2
60^o	296	18	11	1	3	22	18	65	1	1	-0.7	.178	.236	.256	-.481	.179	.236	.260	.159	-21.3	72-C 2	-0.7
50^o	288	16	10	1	3	21	17	64	1	1	-0.7	.173	.229	.245	-.510	.173	.229	.249	.149	-22.7	70-C 2	-0.9
40^o	278	14	9	1	2	19	16	62	1	1	-0.6	.167	.221	.233	-.544	.167	.221	.237	.137	-24.0	68-C 2	-1.1
25^o	255	11	8	0	2	16	13	59	1	1	-0.6	.157	.207	.213	-.603	.157	.207	.216	.110	-25.6	63-C 1	-1.5
10^o	180	5	4	0	1	7	8	45	0	0	-0.4	.141	.184	.181	-.694	.141	.184	.184	.020	-21.9	46-C -1	-1.6
Weighted Mean	282	15	10	1	3	21	16	63	1	1	-0.7	.173	.228	.244	-.500	.173	.229	.248	.148	-20.5	69-C 2	-0.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
26%	33%	51%	36%	1.27

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 25)	282	15	10	1	3	21	16	63	1	1	-0.7	.173	.228	.244	-.500	.173	.229	.248	.148	-20.5	69-C 2	-0.7
2010 (age 26)	262	15	10	0	3	20	16	57	1	1	-0.4	.181	.237	.258	-.487	.178	.234	.258	.160	-12.7	64-C 1	-0.3
2011 (age 27)	280	17	10	0	3	21	17	59	1	1	-0.3	.186	.244	.265	-.462	.184	.241	.265	.168	-8.3	68-C 2	0.0
2012 (age 28)	230	12	8	0	3	19	12	50	0	0	-0.2	.176	.230	.258	-.503	.174	.227	.258	.156	-7.8	57-C 1	0.0
2013 (age 29)	288	17	10	0	4	24	17	61	1	1	-0.2	.177	.234	.257	-.496	.175	.231	.257	.158	-6.9	70-C 2	0.0
2014 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.189	.247	.275
vs RHP	.169	.223	.235
Split	+.020	+.024	+.040
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-19.8	2.0	-0.7	$400,000	-19.8	0.0
2010	-16.4	1.0	-0.3	$400,000	-12.9	0.2
2011	-15.9	2.0	0.0	$400,000	-7.6	0.1
2012	-15.1	1.0	0.0	$400,000	-7.2	0.1
2013	-18.6	2.0	0.0	$400,000	-5.9	0.5
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.177	.149	.110	.148
2010	.205	.172	.103	.160
2011	.213	.178	.123	.168
2012	.214	.171	.140	.156
2013	.212	.176	.138	.158
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	36%	0%	26%
2010	56%	32%	31%
2011	67%	52%	33%
2012	76%	57%	29%
2013	76%	63%	23%
2014	83%	71%	20%
2015	89%	85%	21%

72

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Matt Priess	2000	71		11	Mike Mahoney	1998	59
2	Javier Flores	2001	70		12	Joe Perona	1995	59
3	Max St._Pierre	2006	64		13	Randy Gomez	1982	59
4	Scott Rainey	1987	63		14	Tim Whittaker	2004	58
5	Mark Poole	1985	62		15	Tony Kounas	1993	58
6	Pedro Lopez	1995	62		16	Tony Arnerich	2005	58
7	Dave Plumb	1989	62		17	Darryl Kennedy	1994	58
8	Ryan Budde	2005	61		18	Dave Toth	1995	58
9	Brian Luderer	2004	61		19	Scott Vollmer	1996	58
10	Tim Arnold	1989	60		20	Billy Thompson	1996	57

Player Comments

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2007

Tuffy Gosewisch threw out 43 would-be basestealers last year, the third-best total in pro ball. The two players ahead of him were lower in the minors, caught more innings, and allowed more stolen bases. He started hitting the ball with authority in the second half, but that`s probably a fleeting thing; he still profiles as a defensive backup.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	CLR	A+	339	32	14	0	9	39	24	55	1	0	-2.1	.252	.318	.387	-.317	.214	.266	.329	.207	-19.4	86-C 7	0.4
2007	LWD	A	381	52	24	2	5	45	29	69	0	3	-3.3	.224	.296	.351	-.568	.159	.208	.241	.140	-50.6	87-C 3	-2.5
2008	CLR	A+	374	38	19	1	3	34	31	44	2	1	-3.8	.218	.292	.309	-.516	.170	.229	.246	.158	-43.4	97-C -9	-3.2

Historical Stats