<< PECOTA Home Player Search     
');// -->

He's probably very handsome. Thomas Hanson
Atlanta Braves [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 21
6' 6"
210 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 DNV OR 4 1 0 13 8 51.1 42 9 56 2 41% .302 -11 1.00 2.11 6.02 5.76 9.9 4.4 4.6 1.4 -0.8 0.6
2007 ROM 1B 2 6 0 15 14 73.0 51 26 90 6 44% .269 2 1.05 2.59 5.48 5.26 8.2 5.3 6.6 1.5 2.5 1.2
2007 MYR 1C 3 3 0 11 11 60.0 53 32 64 10 39% .299 -24 1.42 4.20 10.58 8.65 11.1 7.4 6.5 3.4 -17.3 -1.1


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 9:44 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 9 7 0 24 24 140.0 128 84 115 17 40% .277 12 1.51 4.15 5.01 4.33 8.0 4.8 6.6 1.1 22.2 3.3 3.6
75o 8 8 0 24 24 131.7 128 83 108 20 40% .285 8 1.60 4.85 5.62 5.06 8.5 5.1 6.6 1.3 9.8 2.0 2.4
60o 6 8 0 23 23 123.3 127 81 101 22 40% .292 4 1.69 5.57 6.25 5.80 9.0 5.3 6.6 1.5 -1.3 0.8 1.2
50o 6 9 0 23 23 119.0 127 80 97 23 40% .296 1 1.74 5.97 6.59 6.20 9.3 5.4 6.6 1.7 -6.8 0.2 0.6
40o 5 9 0 22 22 108.7 124 77 88 25 40% .306 -5 1.85 6.95 7.40 7.21 10.0 5.7 6.5 1.9 -18.7 -1.0 -0.6
25o 4 9 0 26 19 98.0 118 74 80 25 40% .314 -13 1.95 8.01 8.17 8.30 10.6 6.0 6.5 2.2 -29.3 -2.2 -1.8
10o 3 8 0 25 17 85.3 107 66 69 24 40% .320 -18 2.02 9.43 8.67 9.86 11.0 6.2 6.5 2.4 -40.9 -3.4 -3.1
Weighted Mean 6 9 0 23 23 122.0 129 82 100 23 40% .295 1 1.73 5.93 6.52 6.17 9.3 5.4 6.6 1.6 -5.8 0.3 0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

30%

54%

25%

11%

1.54

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 21) 6 9 0 23 23 122.0 129 82 100 23 40% .295 1 1.73 5.93 6.52 6.17 9.3 5.4 6.6 1.6 -5.8 0.3 0.4
2009 (age 22) 6 7 0 30 18 109.7 112 72 85 18 40% .290 -5 1.68 5.58 6.14 5.83 9.0 5.3 6.3 1.4 -1.4 0.5 0.7
2010 (age 23) 5 7 0 32 16 105.3 115 65 80 19 39% .299 -7 1.71 5.93 6.47 6.17 9.6 5.0 6.1 1.6 -4.5 0.1 0.3
2011 (age 24) 3 5 0 23 10 68.0 72 37 57 12 39% .302 -1 1.60 5.61 5.98 5.85 9.3 4.4 6.8 1.5 -1.2 0.3 0.5
2012 (age 25) 4 5 0 26 10 72.7 77 40 58 13 40% .296 -4 1.60 5.66 6.00 5.92 9.3 4.4 6.5 1.5 -1.4 0.2 0.4
2013 (age 26) 4 5 1 32 8 73.3 78 36 59 12 39% .301 -3 1.56 5.55 5.85 5.80 9.4 4.0 6.5 1.5 -0.6 0.2 0.4
2014 (age 27) 2 2 0 16 4 35.3 38 18 27 6 39% .293 -5 1.55 5.40 5.81 5.64 9.3 4.0 6.1 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .264 .402 .455
vs RHB .253 .366 .432
Split +.010 +.036 +.023
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 0.4 $575,000 -8.1 3.4
2009 0.7 $850,000 -3.3 4.5
2010 0.3 $525,000 -6.3 2.4
2011 0.5 $700,000 -2.5 2.5
2012 0.4 $600,000 -2.5 1.6
2013 0.4 $650,000 -1.5 1.9
2014 0.3 $600,000 -0.4 2.0
Peak 2.8 $1,325,000 0.0 16.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 5.06 6.20 8.30 6.17
2009 5.08 5.94 8.13 5.83
2010 5.02 6.11 7.20 6.17
2011 5.04 6.17 8.43 5.85
2012 4.93 6.26 7.67 5.92
2013 5.19 5.98 6.61 5.80
2014 4.77 6.57 7.10 5.64


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 11% 0% 30%
2009 24% 6% 32%
2010 32% 18% 26%
2011 57% 20% 26%
2012 63% 34% 24%
2013 61% 43% 23%
2014 77% 47% 20%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

49

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Travis Buckley 1992 54 11 Chris Fussell 1998 33
2 Domingo Valdez 2002 50 12 Jason Isringhausen 1994 33
3 Fernando Cabrera 2003 47 13 Rocky Coppinger 1996 32
4 Kris Detmers 1996 45 14 Scott Mathieson 2006 32
5 Jose Silva 1995 41 15 Jason Bere 1993 31
6 Jason Satre 1992 41 16 Ryan Vogelsong 1999 31
7 Brian Bevil 1993 40 17 Matt Wright 2004 31
8 Neal Frendling 2001 38 18 ROB HENKEL 1992 31
9 David Hernandez 2007 34 19 Michael Megrew 2005 30
10 BEN LAVIGNE 1993 34 20 Jimmy Haynes 1994 30

Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.