Brett Hayes

<< PECOTA Home

Player Search

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Projected Playing Time
Marlins Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

C 8 Brett Hayes 5 11 .218 1 0 1 0 .262 .315 -0.3

1 2009 Total 5 11 .218 1 0 1 0 .262 .315 -0.3

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	GRB	A	316	39	13	1	9	38	29	61	4	3	-1.8	.245	.321	.396	-.491	.169	.225	.272	.165	-35.2	69-C 0	-1.9
2007	JUP	A+	75	10	3	1	1	11	9	10	2	3	-0.7	.338	.413	.462	-.012	.284	.355	.403	.261	2.4	16-C 1	0.5
2007	CAR	AA	295	22	16	0	3	31	18	51	2	0	0.0	.234	.280	.326	-.413	.205	.244	.291	.182	-25.7	71-C -14	-2.7
2008	CAR	AA	194	19	8	0	6	18	10	43	1	4	-1.5	.232	.275	.376	-.488	.178	.211	.292	.160	-21.2	47-C -3	-1.6
2008	ABQ	AAA	126	21	3	1	5	17	4	23	1	1	0.3	.293	.331	.466	-.285	.220	.256	.364	.212	-5.7	32-C -3	-0.5

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 8:23 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	327	32	15	1	9	32	23	74	2	1	-0.2	.237	.297	.387	-.146	.240	.298	.402	.240	1.8	79-C -1	1.3
75^o	314	25	13	1	7	28	20	75	2	1	-0.2	.214	.271	.338	-.276	.217	.271	.351	.213	-7.8	76-C -1	0.3
60^o	304	21	12	1	5	25	18	76	2	1	-0.2	.199	.252	.304	-.365	.201	.253	.316	.192	-13.8	74-C -2	-0.3
50^o	301	20	11	1	5	24	18	76	2	1	-0.2	.195	.248	.296	-.387	.197	.248	.308	.186	-15.3	73-C -2	-0.5
40^o	298	19	11	1	5	23	17	76	2	1	-0.2	.190	.242	.286	-.414	.192	.243	.297	.179	-17.0	73-C -2	-0.7
25^o	290	16	10	1	4	20	16	77	2	1	-0.2	.179	.230	.263	-.472	.182	.230	.274	.162	-20.5	71-C -2	-1.1
10^o	273	12	9	0	2	16	14	77	2	1	-0.2	.162	.209	.227	-.570	.164	.209	.236	.127	-25.5	67-C -2	-1.7
Weighted Mean	314	21	12	1	5	26	19	79	2	1	-0.2	.196	.249	.299	-.380	.198	.250	.311	.188	-13.6	76-C -2	-0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
37%	56%	29%	23%	1.13

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 25)	314	21	12	1	5	26	19	79	2	1	-0.2	.196	.249	.299	-.380	.198	.250	.311	.188	-13.6	76-C -2	-0.3
2010 (age 26)	279	18	10	1	6	24	17	73	2	1	-0.1	.189	.246	.300	-.400	.189	.243	.308	.187	-11.1	68-C -2	-0.2
2011 (age 27)	290	21	13	1	6	28	18	74	2	1	-0.1	.201	.257	.327	-.338	.201	.254	.336	.203	-5.7	71-C -2	0.0
2012 (age 28)	264	17	10	1	5	24	15	68	2	1	0.0	.193	.246	.309	-.386	.193	.243	.317	.191	-6.7	65-C -2	0.0
2013 (age 29)	262	18	10	1	6	24	17	63	2	1	0.0	.195	.256	.317	-.357	.195	.253	.325	.199	-5.0	65-C -1	0.1
2014 (age 30)	222	13	8	0	4	20	13	56	1	1	0.0	.191	.244	.302	-.402	.191	.241	.310	.186	-5.2	56-C 0	0.0
2015 (age 31)	254	16	9	1	5	23	15	63	2	1	0.0	.189	.241	.295	-.417	.188	.238	.302	.183	-4.1	63-C 0	0.0

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.212	.266	.328
vs RHP	.192	.244	.287
Split	+.020	+.022	+.041
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-14.0	-2.0	-0.3	$400,000	-15.5	0.2
2010	-12.8	-2.0	-0.2	$400,000	-12.8	0.3
2011	-9.4	-2.0	0.0	$400,000	-7.1	0.1
2012	-11.3	-2.0	0.0	$400,000	-7.5	0.5
2013	-9.4	-1.0	0.1	$400,000	-5.3	0.8
2014	-10.4	0.0	0.0	$400,000	-5.6	0.4
2015	-12.5	0.0	0.0	$400,000	-4.1	0.2
Peak			0.1	$75,000	0.0	2.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.213	.186	.162	.188
2010	.226	.190	.159	.187
2011	.236	.207	.169	.203
2012	.233	.204	.161	.191
2013	.233	.214	.165	.199
2014	.230	.203	.104	.186
2015	.235	.196	.142	.183

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	23%	0%	37%
2010	43%	19%	41%
2011	60%	41%	43%
2012	69%	45%	41%
2013	68%	50%	40%
2014	77%	54%	37%
2015	82%	66%	28%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

70

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Javi Herrera	2007	73		11	Jim Campanis	1993	58
2	Rick Guarno	2008	71		12	Ryan Hubele	2006	58
3	Nick Trzesniak	2006	68		13	Scott Servais	1992	57
4	Jason Hill	2002	66		14	Eli Whiteside	2005	57
5	Rene Rivera	2008	64		15	John Posey	1990	56
6	Scott Walter	2004	63		16	Mike Tonis	2004	56
7	Joe Ayrault	1997	62		17	Bubba Holland	1984	55
8	Craig Tatum	2008	61		18	Jeff Winchester	2005	55
9	Stan Cliburn	1982	59		19	Izzy Molina	1996	55
10	Clint Sammons	2008	59		20	Dan Conway	2005	55

Baseball Prospectus Home | Terms of Service | Privacy Policy | Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.