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He's probably very handsome. Francisco Hernandez
Chicago White Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats B
Age 23
5' 9"
160 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 KAN A 351 29 16 1 6 34 22 31 3 1 -0.9 .247 .305 .361 -.436 .195 .235 .290 .176 -34.1 86-C -1 -1.7
2007 KAN A 310 42 23 1 4 36 35 29 0 1 -1.7 .277 .362 .413 -.287 .217 .287 .320 .212 -15.5 66-C -3 8-3B -2 -0.9
2008 WNS A+ 288 28 15 0 6 31 32 33 2 2 -2.5 .245 .338 .382 -.222 .217 .299 .353 .230 -8.8 70-C 6 1.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:58 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 425 47 21 1 10 39 37 63 1 1 -0.3 .251 .320 .388 -.104 .252 .321 .396 .252 6.4 101-C 2 2.6
75o 397 36 18 0 7 34 32 61 1 1 -0.3 .231 .297 .346 -.216 .231 .298 .353 .229 -4.4 95-C 2 1.5
60o 385 33 16 0 6 32 30 60 1 1 -0.3 .223 .288 .329 -.259 .223 .289 .336 .220 -8.1 92-C 2 1.1
50o 377 30 16 0 6 31 29 59 1 1 -0.3 .218 .282 .319 -.287 .218 .283 .326 .214 -10.4 90-C 2 0.8
40o 365 27 15 0 5 29 27 58 1 1 -0.3 .210 .273 .303 -.328 .210 .274 .310 .204 -13.5 88-C 2 0.5
25o 346 23 13 0 4 26 25 57 1 1 -0.2 .199 .261 .281 -.387 .200 .262 .287 .190 -17.6 83-C 2 0.0
10o 307 16 10 0 2 20 20 53 1 1 -0.2 .179 .238 .240 -.494 .180 .239 .245 .160 -23.2 75-C 2 -0.7
Weighted Mean 383 31 16 0 6 31 29 61 1 1 -0.3 .216 .281 .316 -.275 .217 .282 .323 .212 -10.7 92-C 3 0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

27%

52%

29%

19%

1.06

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 23) 383 31 16 0 6 31 29 61 1 1 -0.3 .216 .281 .316 -.275 .217 .282 .323 .212 -10.7 92-C 3 0.8
2010 (age 24) 348 26 14 0 5 28 27 54 1 1 -0.2 .213 .279 .309 -.295 .216 .283 .320 .209 -9.0 84-C 1 0.6
2011 (age 25) 326 24 13 0 5 27 26 51 1 1 -0.1 .207 .275 .310 -.305 .210 .279 .320 .206 -7.2 79-C -2 0.3
2012 (age 26) 386 32 16 1 7 34 32 58 1 1 -0.1 .213 .284 .322 -.268 .216 .288 .333 .215 -4.2 92-C -1 0.5
2013 (age 27) 457 42 19 1 8 41 37 64 1 1 0.0 .223 .289 .331 -.241 .226 .294 .342 .220 -2.7 108-C -4 0.4
2014 (age 28)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .216 .271 .303
vs RHP .216 .285 .323
Split +.000 -.014 -.020
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -9.1 3.0 0.8 $550,000 -6.3 1.3
2010 -9.2 1.0 0.6 $475,000 -5.6 2.5
2011 -9.3 -2.0 0.3 $400,000 -5.8 2.5
2012 -7.9 -1.0 0.5 $850,000 -2.2 2.4
2013 -7.3 -4.0 0.4 $875,000 -1.5 1.6
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 2.7 $2,175,000 -1.5 12.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .229 .214 .190 .212
2010 .228 .208 .180 .209
2011 .229 .202 .176 .206
2012 .238 .209 .178 .215
2013 .243 .219 .196 .220
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 19% 0% 27%
2010 37% 20% 23%
2011 56% 37% 18%
2012 65% 54% 17%
2013 76% 64% 18%
2014 80% 68% 12%
2015 85% 71% 11%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

45

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Omar Fuentes 2003 41 11 Dimas Gutierrez 1989 28
2 Jose Lobaton 2008 39 12 Brian Luderer 2002 27
3 Mitch Meluskey 1997 35 13 Wilkin Castillo 2007 27
4 Felix Molina 2006 32 14 Wil Nieves 2001 27
5 Scotti Madison 1983 30 15 Erold Andrus 2007 27
6 Phil Avlas 2006 30 16 Jose Monzon 1992 26
7 Sal D'Alessandro 1988 29 17 Dave Holt 1981 26
8 Hector Gimenez 2006 29 18 Jorge Sequea 2004 25
9 Aurelio Cadahia 1981 28 19 Rene Lopez 1995 24
10 Victor Martinez 2002 28 20 Edwin Marquez 1988 24

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Catching prospects are few and far between, but Hernandez doesn't merely deserve consideration because supply lags so far behind demand. He's a solid line-drive hitter with adequate receiving skills and a strong arm behind the plate (killing off 29 percent of attempting base stealers), although he's almost tiny by backstop standards, which handicaps any projection of future power. He's young, but not so young that he can afford to stumble on his way up.

2007

Francisco Hernandez is probably the best prospect listed in this paragraph due to his youth and defensive abilities, but his bat has failed to progress after a promising 250-PA stretch at Great Falls in the first half of 2005.

2006

On the plus side, Hernandez was just 19, and both the scouts and our numbers suggest that he could be a premium defensive catcher. On the negative side, he`s very small, very slow, and hit an empty .222 against Sally League pitching. Did we mention that he was just 19?


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