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He's probably very handsome. Daniel Herrera
Texas Rangers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 23
5' 8"
145 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 RNG 0R 0 1 2 3 0 8.2 5 0 11 0 67% .278 10 0.61 2.20 4.33 4.91 7.4 2.5 6.1 0.0 0.6 0.3
2006 BAK 1C 4 2 1 14 5 53.1 39 12 61 0 71% .293 11 0.96 1.36 3.75 3.78 7.2 3.2 6.1 0.4 10.1 1.9
2007 BAK 1C 2 0 1 7 1 11.0 14 5 11 1 58% .371 -23 1.73 3.27 8.15 4.35 13.1 6.1 5.2 1.7 1.4 0.5
2007 FRI 2A 5 2 0 34 0 52.3 43 20 64 3 50% .339 8 1.20 3.79 5.26 5.67 9.6 4.5 8.4 0.8 -0.4 0.9


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 10:11 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 5 4 1 31 8 75.3 65 32 62 5 52% .277 12 1.29 2.96 3.26 2.88 7.4 3.5 6.7 0.6 23.6 2.5 3.1
75o 4 4 1 30 8 70.7 66 34 57 6 52% .291 8 1.41 3.71 3.85 3.61 8.0 3.9 6.5 0.7 15.8 1.8 2.3
60o 3 4 1 29 7 64.3 67 35 51 6 52% .310 1 1.58 4.77 4.69 4.65 8.9 4.5 6.4 0.9 6.2 0.8 1.3
50o 3 4 1 29 7 61.3 67 36 48 7 52% .320 -2 1.68 5.34 5.14 5.20 9.3 4.9 6.3 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.8
40o 3 4 1 29 7 60.3 67 36 47 7 52% .322 -3 1.70 5.50 5.26 5.35 9.5 5.0 6.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.7
25o 2 4 0 28 6 58.0 67 37 45 7 52% .330 -6 1.78 5.96 5.63 5.80 9.8 5.2 6.2 1.0 -2.7 0.0 0.4
10o 2 4 0 26 5 49.7 65 37 37 7 52% .356 -16 2.06 7.69 7.00 7.48 11.2 6.2 6.0 1.3 -12.6 -1.0 -0.6
Weighted Mean 3 4 1 28 6 60.0 63 34 47 6 52% .313 0 1.61 4.94 4.80 4.81 9.0 4.6 6.4 0.9 4.7 0.6 1.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

33%

49%

23%

12%

1.13

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 23) 3 4 1 28 6 60.0 63 34 47 6 52% .313 0 1.61 4.94 4.80 4.81 9.0 4.6 6.4 0.9 4.7 0.6 1.2
2009 (age 24) 3 4 1 28 7 63.0 64 31 50 6 52% .308 3 1.51 4.48 4.36 4.37 8.7 4.1 6.4 0.8 7.9 1.0 1.5
2010 (age 25) 3 4 1 30 6 61.3 65 30 49 6 50% .314 2 1.54 4.62 4.49 4.50 9.0 4.1 6.5 0.8 5.3 0.9 1.1
2011 (age 26) 3 3 1 27 6 58.0 61 29 44 4 52% .315 1 1.55 4.40 4.37 4.30 9.0 4.1 6.1 0.7 6.7 1.0 1.2
2012 (age 27) 3 4 1 27 7 62.0 62 26 51 5 52% .306 7 1.42 4.16 3.91 4.08 8.6 3.5 6.6 0.7 7.1 1.2 1.2
2013 (age 28) 2 2 1 18 4 38.7 39 18 30 4 51% .301 2 1.47 4.37 4.21 4.27 8.6 3.8 6.3 0.8 5.1 0.7 0.9
2014 (age 29) 2 2 1 18 4 36.7 38 18 28 3 52% .310 2 1.51 4.16 4.22 4.06 8.9 4.0 6.1 0.6 4.8 0.7 0.8

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .225 .332 .313
vs RHB .252 .357 .390
Split -.027 -.025 -.077
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.2 $2,100,000 5.6 8.3
2009 1.5 $3,100,000 8.7 10.6
2010 1.1 $2,275,000 5.9 5.3
2011 1.2 $2,875,000 7.3 7.8
2012 1.2 $3,100,000 7.6 7.7
2013 0.9 $2,475,000 5.6 5.6
2014 0.8 $2,375,000 5.2 4.9
Peak 7.1 $11,225,000 35.1 45.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.61 5.20 5.80 4.81
2009 4.07 4.50 5.84 4.37
2010 3.79 4.37 5.61 4.50
2011 3.60 4.37 5.90 4.30
2012 3.15 4.35 5.44 4.08
2013 3.71 5.08 6.21 4.27
2014 3.40 4.03 5.88 4.06


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 12% 0% 33%
2009 24% 11% 26%
2010 25% 20% 34%
2011 41% 25% 33%
2012 55% 41% 32%
2013 57% 40% 25%
2014 59% 54% 22%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

30

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Brad Woodall 1993 41 11 Tony Chavez 1994 22
2 Mike Holtz 1996 41 12 Jimmy Serrano 2000 22
3 Roy Corcoran 2004 34 13 Jeff Taglienti 1999 19
4 Sean Spencer 1999 33 14 Saul Rivera 2001 19
5 Steve Dixon 1993 28 15 Shane Rawley 1979 18
6 Jesse Carlson 2004 28 16 Ray Aguilar 2003 18
7 Gerald Santos 1993 26 17 Jeff Pierce 1993 17
8 Alfredo Gonzalez 2003 26 18 Chad Harville 2000 17
9 JOHN PRICHER 1994 24 19 Dom Konieczki 1993 16
10 Vic Darensbourg 1994 23 20 CHRIS LIMBACH 1992 15

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