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2007 First, the 50-game suspension for failing a drug test prior to the 2005 season. Then, the Tommy John surgery in March 2006, which cost Herrera the entire season. At press time, he was expected to be ready for spring training. Herrera still has a high upside as an above-average power-speed combination in center field. 2006 Herrera was the highest profile minor leaguer suspended for performance enhancing drugs, and because he had a notably worse year at the plate, he tended to confirm the worst fears of the sky-is-falling crowd. Herrera didn`t make the book last year, but we went back and ran a PECOTA based on his 2004 batting line.? EqBA EqOBP EqSLG EQA PECOTA Forecast .266 .314 .444 .255 Actual 2005 DTs .236 .316 .391 .251 PECOTA would have missed high on his batting average, but otherwise this is a good forecast; it had his OBP, EQA, and isolated power all about right. In other words, Herrera`s decline was more perceived than real, and it had mostly to do with the vagaries of making rosy projections based on a batting average-driven year in short-season A-Ball. He`s still a reasonable long-term prospect, and the near-term goal will be reducing the strikeouts.
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