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Javier Herrera
Oakland Athletics [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Center Field
Bats R
Age 23
5' 10"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 KNC 1B 422 70 18 2 13 62 47 110 26 5 -1.7 .275 .374 .444 .121 .215 .294 .350 .231 -11.4 88-CF -4 1.7
2005 SAC 3A 15 5 1 0 1 3 1 1 1 0 -0.2 .417 .533 .750 .958 .385 .467 .692 .379 2.8 0.3
2007 STO 1C 279 45 17 0 9 39 19 60 11 7 0.3 .274 .337 .448 .050 .224 .273 .355 .217 -9.7 46-CF -4 0.7
2007 MID 2A 79 13 5 0 3 13 4 13 1 0 -0.1 .254 .316 .451 .014 .233 .287 .411 .243 -0.9 0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 11:35 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 440 52 23 1 11 48 32 107 11 5 0.4 .245 .308 .395 -.109 .249 .313 .421 .259 4.3 105-CF -3 2.6
75o 414 44 20 1 10 43 28 103 10 4 0.4 .236 .296 .374 -.162 .239 .301 .399 .248 -1.5 99-CF -3 2.0
60o 393 38 19 1 8 39 26 100 10 4 0.4 .228 .287 .358 -.204 .232 .292 .382 .239 -5.5 94-CF -3 1.6
50o 383 36 18 1 8 37 25 99 9 4 0.3 .225 .283 .351 -.223 .229 .288 .374 .235 -7.1 92-CF -3 1.4
40o 355 30 16 1 7 33 22 94 8 4 0.3 .216 .272 .332 -.273 .220 .276 .354 .223 -11.1 85-CF -3 0.9
25o 329 25 14 1 5 28 19 90 8 3 0.3 .208 .261 .314 -.319 .212 .266 .335 .212 -14.0 80-CF -3 0.5
10o 264 16 10 1 3 19 13 77 6 3 0.2 .191 .238 .276 -.419 .194 .242 .294 .185 -18.0 65-CF -2 -0.2
Weighted Mean 392 37 18 1 8 38 25 101 10 4 0.3 .224 .282 .350 -.226 .228 .287 .373 .233 -7.5 94-CF -3 1.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

33%

58%

23%

10%

0.89

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 23) 392 37 18 1 8 38 25 101 10 4 0.3 .224 .282 .350 -.226 .228 .287 .373 .233 -7.5 94-CF -3 1.6
2009 (age 24) 400 41 19 1 10 43 26 101 10 4 0.3 .233 .291 .371 -.176 .240 .301 .403 .244 -2.2 95-CF -2 1.7
2010 (age 25) 374 38 18 1 9 40 25 93 9 4 0.2 .233 .294 .373 -.170 .241 .303 .405 .245 -1.5 90-CF -2 1.4
2011 (age 26) 310 30 15 1 8 34 22 73 7 3 0.2 .234 .298 .377 -.155 .242 .308 .410 .249 -0.3 75-CF -1 1.2
2012 (age 27) 361 38 18 1 10 42 25 84 7 3 0.1 .241 .301 .391 -.129 .248 .311 .425 .253 0.8 87-CF -3 0.9
2013 (age 28) 304 31 16 1 8 37 23 71 7 3 0.1 .250 .312 .404 -.086 .258 .323 .439 .263 1.9 74-CF -2 0.8
2014 (age 29) 396 41 18 1 12 45 27 95 6 3 0.1 .235 .292 .387 -.154 .242 .301 .421 .248 0.0 95-CF -5 0.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .240 .299 .374
vs RHP .220 .276 .337
Split +.020 +.023 +.037
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.2 1.4 1.6 $1,775,000 -6.5 0.4
2009 0.5 1.2 1.7 $1,925,000 -0.9 2.3
2010 0.5 1.0 1.4 $1,725,000 -0.9 1.7
2011 0.5 0.8 1.2 $1,700,000 0.7 3.2
2012 0.4 0.5 0.9 $1,325,000 0.4 1.6
2013 0.4 0.4 0.8 $1,575,000 1.9 2.8
2014 0.2 0.4 0.6 $950,000 -0.4 0.6
Peak 7.7 $6,425,000 2.9 12.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .248 .235 .212 .233
2009 .257 .239 .219 .244
2010 .259 .233 .222 .245
2011 .258 .232 .212 .249
2012 .265 .246 .225 .253
2013 .274 .252 .225 .263
2014 .257 .247 .196 .248


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 10% 0% 33%
2009 21% 12% 44%
2010 34% 20% 39%
2011 53% 28% 34%
2012 60% 50% 34%
2013 71% 61% 37%
2014 77% 67% 30%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

First, the 50-game suspension for failing a drug test prior to the 2005 season. Then, the Tommy John surgery in March 2006, which cost Herrera the entire season. At press time, he was expected to be ready for spring training. Herrera still has a high upside as an above-average power-speed combination in center field.

2006

Herrera was the highest profile minor leaguer suspended for performance enhancing drugs, and because he had a notably worse year at the plate, he tended to confirm the worst fears of the sky-is-falling crowd. Herrera didn`t make the book last year, but we went back and ran a PECOTA based on his 2004 batting line.?

                                                                                                                                                                                   EqBA EqOBP EqSLG EQA                                                                                                                                                                                                PECOTA Forecast .266 .314 .444 .255                                                                                                                                                                                   Actual 2005 DTs .236 .316 .391 .251                                                                                                                                                                                  
PECOTA would have missed high on his batting average, but otherwise this is a good forecast; it had his OBP, EQA, and isolated power all about right. In other words, Herrera`s decline was more perceived than real, and it had mostly to do with the vagaries of making rosy projections based on a batting average-driven year in short-season A-Ball. He`s still a reasonable long-term prospect, and the near-term goal will be reducing the strikeouts.


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