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Travis Ishikawa
San Francisco Giants [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
First Base
Bats L
Age 24
6' 3"
225 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 SJO 1C 516 87 28 7 22 79 70 129 1 4 -1.8 .282 .387 .532 .281 .225 .315 .392 .245 -8.8 125-1B 14 3.2
2006 NRW 2A 340 33 13 4 10 42 35 88 0 0 -1.2 .232 .316 .403 .090 .224 .300 .399 .243 -8.1 79-1B 7 1.9
2006 SFN MJ 25 1 3 1 0 4 1 6 0 0 -0.1 .292 .320 .500 .095 .292 .320 .500 .274 0.8 0.2
2007 SJO 1C 222 35 15 1 13 34 19 78 0 0 -1.7 .268 .342 .551 .292 .196 .257 .402 .225 -10.9 38-1B -2 0.2
2007 NRW 2A 192 17 3 1 3 17 17 48 0 0 -0.5 .214 .292 .295 -.155 .199 .266 .278 .187 -18.2 48-1B 3 0.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 12:03 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 483 59 25 3 17 65 46 130 3 2 -0.4 .248 .324 .441 -.046 .246 .324 .456 .263 5.0 114-1B 4 2.9
75o 459 50 23 2 15 58 42 127 2 2 -0.3 .235 .310 .413 -.118 .234 .310 .426 .250 -3.0 109-1B 4 2.2
60o 442 45 21 2 13 53 39 125 2 1 -0.3 .227 .300 .393 -.167 .225 .300 .406 .240 -8.0 105-1B 4 1.7
50o 436 43 20 2 13 52 38 125 2 1 -0.3 .224 .296 .386 -.183 .223 .297 .399 .237 -9.6 104-1B 4 1.5
40o 419 38 19 2 11 47 35 122 2 1 -0.3 .216 .287 .368 -.230 .215 .287 .380 .227 -13.8 100-1B 4 1.1
25o 396 32 17 2 10 42 32 119 2 1 -0.3 .206 .275 .344 -.289 .204 .275 .355 .214 -18.6 94-1B 4 0.6
10o 348 23 13 1 7 31 26 111 2 1 -0.2 .187 .252 .300 -.398 .186 .253 .310 .187 -25.4 84-1B 4 -0.2
Weighted Mean 438 42 20 2 13 51 38 126 2 1 -0.3 .222 .294 .381 -.196 .220 .294 .394 .233 -8.0 104-1B 4 1.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

31%

57%

22%

7%

0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 24) 438 42 20 2 13 51 38 126 2 1 -0.3 .222 .294 .381 -.196 .220 .294 .394 .233 -8.0 104-1B 4 1.4
2009 (age 25) 460 48 22 2 14 57 43 126 3 2 -0.2 .228 .304 .395 -.155 .223 .300 .401 .242 -4.8 109-1B 4 1.2
2010 (age 26) 402 41 19 2 13 51 38 110 2 1 -0.2 .228 .307 .401 -.143 .223 .302 .407 .245 -3.1 96-1B 4 1.1
2011 (age 27) 399 44 20 2 14 55 39 106 2 1 -0.1 .241 .319 .432 -.073 .236 .314 .438 .258 0.6 95-1B 2 0.8
2012 (age 28)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 30)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .200 .269 .343
vs RHP .228 .305 .407
Split -.028 -.036 -.063
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.2 1.2 1.4 $1,525,000 -6.0 0.6
2009 0.4 0.8 1.2 $1,350,000 -3.9 0.5
2010 0.4 0.6 1.1 $1,275,000 -2.0 1.5
2011 0.5 0.3 0.8 $1,125,000 0.6 0.6
2012 0.3 0.3 0.6 $1,075,000 1.1 1.1
2013 0.0 0.1 0.1 $475,000 -2.5 0.0
2014 0.0 0.1 0.1 $475,000 -2.3 0.0
Peak 5.3 $3,850,000 1.1 4.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .250 .237 .214 .233
2009 .266 .242 .223 .242
2010 .267 .241 .217 .245
2011 .279 .260 .236 .258
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 7% 0% 31%
2009 34% 21% 32%
2010 46% 34% 29%
2011 66% 62% 28%
2012 81% 73% 27%
2013 90% 82% 20%
2014 90% 86% 19%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

The organization was excited about Ishikawa`s 2005 being the start of a breakout, but success was fleeting. Part of the problem was Connecticut`s Thomas Dodd Stadium, which was a brutal hitting environment; part was that he failed to hit even .200 against lefties, after hitting .317 off them the prior year. The bigger, perhaps unassailable problem, though, is his swing. It has holes, leading to strikeouts, and has a pronounced uppercut, leading to lots of fly-ball outs since he isn`t strong enough to drive pitches over the wall consistently. The combination of a fly-ball swing, warning-track power, and strikeouts is a sure recipe for a low batting average and feelings of inadequacy.

2006

Ishikawa finally showed the power that the Giants were waiting for, but he also struck out in about 30% of plate his appearances. Sometimes strikeouts are a predictor of power in a player`s future, and sometimes it just means you can`t catch up to a fastball. Time will tell just which shade of foreshadowing Ishikawa`s strikeouts represent. One good sign is his reverse platoon split; he actually hit better against lefties than righties. There`s no doubt about his fielding; he`s almost a Gold Glove quality defender right now. The team will give him the starting job at Double-A next year to see what he can do against tougher competition.

2005

We covered his back-story last year: 21st-round pick with high-round talent given nearly a million bucks to sign and skip college. Ishikawa can now be viewed as simply an intriguing prospect. Showed good sock for a 20-year-old in his first year in the Sally League, and didn't embarrass himself in 16 games at high-A at season's end. Between Ishikawa and Brad Vericker, the Giants could have nice options at first base in a few years, if ever they get over their disdain for rookies.


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