Paul Janish

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 12:10 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	593	79	34	2	12	58	57	83	11	4	0.3	.271	.348	.417	-.018	.268	.344	.410	.262	21.9	139-SS 4	5.5
75^o	558	67	30	2	10	52	51	81	10	4	0.3	.260	.335	.392	-.083	.256	.331	.386	.250	12.4	131-SS 3	4.5
60^o	533	59	28	2	9	48	48	79	10	3	0.3	.252	.325	.375	-.128	.248	.322	.369	.242	6.4	125-SS 3	3.8
50^o	520	56	26	2	8	46	46	78	10	3	0.3	.248	.321	.367	-.150	.244	.317	.361	.237	3.6	123-SS 2	3.5
40^o	502	51	24	2	7	43	43	76	9	3	0.2	.242	.314	.355	-.182	.239	.310	.349	.231	-0.2	118-SS 2	3.1
25^o	474	44	22	2	6	39	39	74	9	3	0.2	.233	.304	.337	-.229	.230	.300	.331	.221	-5.3	112-SS 1	2.4
10^o	399	29	16	1	3	29	30	67	7	2	0.2	.213	.278	.293	-.345	.210	.275	.289	.195	-14.9	95-SS 0	1.1
Weighted Mean	573	65	29	2	9	51	51	86	11	4	0.2	.249	.322	.369	-.144	.245	.318	.363	.238	7.4	134-SS 4	3.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
30%	58%	13%	23%	0.81

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 25)	573	65	29	2	9	51	51	86	11	4	0.2	.249	.322	.369	-.144	.245	.318	.363	.238	7.4	134-SS 4	3.9
2009 (age 26)	542	61	27	2	9	51	48	81	10	4	0.2	.254	.327	.375	-.124	.246	.318	.362	.242	5.6	127-SS 4	3.2
2010 (age 27)	478	52	25	2	8	43	44	70	8	3	0.1	.258	.333	.384	-.098	.250	.325	.371	.247	6.5	113-SS 2	2.6
2011 (age 28)	454	46	24	1	7	39	40	65	7	3	0.1	.254	.326	.374	-.126	.247	.318	.361	.241	3.4	108-SS 2	2.0
2012 (age 29)	534	62	27	2	9	50	49	74	9	3	0.1	.260	.335	.386	-.090	.253	.326	.373	.248	5.1	126-SS 1	2.0
2013 (age 30)	543	60	26	2	9	51	50	75	7	3	0.0	.248	.324	.368	-.142	.241	.315	.355	.238	1.9	128-SS 2	1.5
2014 (age 31)	614	77	32	2	12	66	58	83	7	3	0.0	.263	.336	.396	-.073	.255	.327	.382	.250	4.6	144-SS 0	1.5

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.264	.341	.394
vs RHP	.244	.313	.355
Split	+.021	+.027	+.039
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.4	3.5	3.9	$6,825,000	9.0	6.0
2009	0.6	2.6	3.2	$5,600,000	7.2	7.3
2010	0.6	2.0	2.6	$4,925,000	7.1	8.8
2011	0.3	1.6	2.0	$3,550,000	4.3	5.0
2012	0.5	1.5	2.0	$4,025,000	5.6	6.4
2013	0.2	1.3	1.5	$2,875,000	2.7	3.8
2014	0.4	1.1	1.5	$3,475,000	4.4	5.9
Peak			15.2	$21,925,000	35.9	37.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.250	.237	.221	.238
2009	.262	.246	.228	.242
2010	.268	.251	.223	.247
2011	.262	.255	.220	.241
2012	.265	.246	.238	.248
2013	.254	.242	.232	.238
2014	.263	.257	.242	.250

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	23%	0%	30%
2009	30%	13%	35%
2010	49%	27%	37%
2011	59%	39%	35%
2012	64%	46%	28%
2013	70%	57%	21%
2014	70%	66%	23%

Player Comments

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2007

Drafted out of Rice in the fifth round of the 2004 draft, Janish lost a good chunk of 2005 to Tommy John surgery, so he`s already behind the curve for his age. That said, he`s a plus defender with an acceptable range of hitting skills. Sometimes these guys wind up with opportunities, but more often they don`t--anyone remember Nate Frese? If Janish adapts well to Double-A, he`ll have a chance.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	DYT	1B	254	30	10	2	5	29	29	38	5	2	0.0	.245	.346	.385	-.006	.201	.279	.311	.211	-9.2	55-SS 11	2.1
2006	DYT	1B	108	19	6	0	5	18	7	10	0	0	1.0	.398	.435	.612	.604	.340	.370	.530	.304	13.6	24-SS 5	1.7
2006	SAR	1C	393	53	17	2	9	55	38	39	8	2	0.4	.278	.355	.421	.115	.246	.311	.376	.245	4.5	83-SS 14	4.4
2006	CHT	2A	16	1	1	0	0	2	1	5	0	0	0.0	.267	.313	.333	-.055	.200	.250	.267	.172	-1.5		0.0
2007	CHT	2A	391	46	21	2	1	20	50	54	10	3	-0.4	.244	.358	.330	-.066	.214	.314	.295	.225	-8.5	67-SS 7	2.2
2007	LOU	3A	227	20	8	1	3	19	14	31	2	0	-0.6	.221	.278	.317	-.210	.225	.277	.333	.217	-5.7	55-SS -8	0.6

Historical Stats