Ben Johnson

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 12:20 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	461	41	23	1	13	51	22	112	3	1	-0.4	.224	.270	.376	-.216	.223	.272	.393	.229	-7.9	109-C -12	0.2
75^o	444	34	19	1	11	46	20	111	3	1	-0.4	.205	.250	.337	-.320	.204	.251	.352	.207	-18.4	105-C -11	-0.9
60^o	431	29	17	1	9	43	19	110	3	1	-0.4	.191	.235	.310	-.391	.190	.237	.323	.189	-25.1	102-C -11	-1.6
50^o	421	26	16	1	8	40	18	109	3	1	-0.3	.182	.226	.291	-.440	.181	.227	.304	.176	-29.2	100-C -11	-2.1
40^o	408	23	14	1	7	37	17	108	2	1	-0.3	.171	.214	.269	-.496	.171	.216	.281	.159	-33.7	97-C -10	-2.6
25^o	380	17	11	1	5	31	15	104	2	1	-0.3	.153	.194	.232	-.594	.152	.195	.242	.122	-40.1	91-C -10	-3.4
10^o	331	10	7	0	3	21	12	97	2	1	-0.2	.126	.164	.178	-.734	.126	.165	.186	.058	-45.8	80-C -8	-3.8
Weighted Mean	452	27	16	1	9	43	19	118	3	1	-0.3	.177	.220	.281	-.450	.176	.222	.293	.167	-31.0	107-C -11	-2.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
34%	47%	46%	12%	1.30

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 27)	452	27	16	1	9	43	19	118	3	1	-0.3	.177	.220	.281	-.450	.176	.222	.293	.167	-31.0	107-C -11	-2.0
2010 (age 28)	371	22	14	1	8	36	16	99	3	1	-0.2	.179	.224	.292	-.431	.180	.229	.309	.175	-17.7	89-C -10	-1.2
2011 (age 29)	385	23	15	1	7	36	17	99	3	1	-0.1	.183	.228	.290	-.425	.184	.232	.306	.175	-13.2	92-C -9	-0.8
2012 (age 30)	321	18	12	1	7	31	13	84	2	1	-0.1	.176	.220	.286	-.448	.178	.225	.302	.170	-7.9	78-C -7	-0.4
2013 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 33)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.187	.218	.304
vs RHP	.175	.221	.272
Split	+.012	-.004	+.032
LgAvg	+.004	-.004	+.007

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-34.5	-11.0	-2.0	$400,000	-33.9	0.0
2010	-26.2	-10.0	-1.2	$400,000	-19.7	0.0
2011	-26.9	-9.0	-0.8	$400,000	-14.1	0.0
2012	-23.8	-7.0	-0.4	$400,000	-8.2	0.0
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.207	.176	.122	.167
2010	.208	.176	.130	.175
2011	.211	.190	.150	.175
2012	.218	.188	.095	.170
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	12%	0%	34%
2010	52%	30%	22%
2011	58%	49%	22%
2012	74%	66%	18%
2013	90%	81%	16%
2014	90%	87%	12%
2015	95%	89%	9%

56

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Razor Shines	1984	50		11	Kenny Jackson	1992	38
2	Willie Morales	2000	42		12	Paul Hollins	1986	37
3	Adell Davenport	1995	41		13	Ricky Freeman	1999	37
4	Mel Rosario	2001	40		14	Miguel Correa	1999	37
5	Dan Held	1998	40		15	Victor Sanchez	1999	36
6	Dwayne Hosey	1994	40		16	Billy Owens	1998	36
7	Jeff Reynolds	1987	39		17	Greg Connors	2002	36
8	Mike Cervenak	2004	38		18	Michael Walker	1985	36
9	Mark Jurich	2008	38		19	Greg Sparks	1991	36
10	Ken Ford	1985	38		20	Dave Hudgens	1984	36

Player Comments

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2008

Not to be confused with the Mets outfielder, the disgraced sprinter, or the Elizabethan playwright, this Ben Johnson is a catcher with some speed and pop, but not much glove. He's at least two injured players away from the dream.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	RCU	A+	397	57	20	2	19	60	34	83	5	0	0.2	.252	.330	.482	-.420	.171	.227	.323	.186	-34.1	34-C -5 12-RF -2	-3.2
2007	RCU	A+	299	39	12	2	14	48	21	48	13	0	0.0	.277	.348	.500	-.431	.179	.230	.307	.190	-26.1	53-C -1 15-1B -3	-1.7
2007	ARK	AA	138	19	9	0	5	18	9	22	1	1	1.0	.267	.350	.467	-.300	.206	.263	.349	.211	-7.2	22-C -7	-1.1
2007	SLC	AAA	26	7	1	2	0	6	0	6	0	1	-0.7	.333	.385	.542	-.099	.240	.296	.440	.237	0.1		0.0
2008	ARK	AA	449	55	19	1	20	77	17	80	6	5	-0.1	.262	.313	.460	-.442	.180	.216	.319	.177	-41.7	60-C -9 16-1B -2	-4.2
2008	SLC	AAA	74	9	2	0	3	13	1	7	0	0	0.0	.225	.243	.380	-.557	.167	.187	.278	.143	-8.9	16-C -3	-1.0

Historical Stats