Kris Johnson

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 10:39 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	8	8	0	25	25	141.7	161	77	69	12	48%	.306	-3	1.68	4.95	5.10	4.87	9.6	4.5	4.0	0.7	11.7	2.3	2.5
75^o	7	10	0	25	25	132.0	161	77	62	16	48%	.316	-9	1.81	6.01	5.91	5.87	10.4	4.8	3.9	1.1	-5.4	0.5	0.8
60^o	5	10	0	24	24	124.3	161	77	57	18	48%	.324	-14	1.91	6.88	6.58	6.68	11.0	5.1	3.8	1.3	-17.6	-0.8	-0.5
50^o	5	10	0	24	24	118.0	160	77	53	21	48%	.330	-19	2.01	7.65	7.17	7.40	11.5	5.3	3.7	1.5	-27.2	-1.8	-1.5
40^o	4	10	0	23	23	113.3	159	76	51	22	48%	.335	-22	2.07	8.21	7.59	7.92	11.9	5.5	3.7	1.7	-33.4	-2.4	-2.1
25^o	3	10	0	31	20	105.0	156	75	46	24	47%	.343	-32	2.20	9.33	8.42	8.96	12.6	5.9	3.6	2.0	-44.4	-3.6	-3.2
10^o	2	9	0	31	16	85.7	139	67	36	24	47%	.357	-45	2.41	12.25	9.76	11.85	13.8	6.4	3.4	2.5	-66.7	-5.9	-5.5
Weighted Mean	5	10	0	31	21	118.0	157	75	54	19	48%	.327	-21	1.97	7.39	6.91	7.17	11.3	5.2	3.8	1.4	-22.8	-1.5	-0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
19%	47%	28%	14%	1.52

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 23)	5	10	0	31	21	118.0	157	75	54	19	48%	.327	-21	1.97	7.39	6.91	7.17	11.3	5.2	3.8	1.4	-22.8	-1.5	-0.8
2009 (age 24)	4	7	0	30	13	85.7	112	53	42	13	48%	.328	-22	1.92	7.06	6.67	6.85	11.1	5.0	4.1	1.3	-12.1	-0.8	-0.3
2010 (age 25)	3	5	0	28	10	69.3	96	44	34	12	48%	.338	-26	2.02	7.60	7.24	7.33	11.8	5.2	4.0	1.5	-12.1	-1.1	-0.5
2011 (age 26)	3	5	0	29	9	70.0	88	40	34	9	47%	.319	-21	1.82	6.70	6.17	6.54	10.6	4.7	4.0	1.2	-4.7	-0.5	0.0
2012 (age 27)	3	5	0	29	8	68.0	86	34	37	10	47%	.325	-16	1.76	6.27	6.03	6.09	10.7	4.1	4.5	1.3	-2.1	-0.1	0.1
2013 (age 28)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.288	.393	.424
vs RHB	.299	.411	.506
Split	-.012	-.019	-.082
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	-0.8	$400,000	-21.8	1.1
2009	-0.3	$400,000	-11.5	2.6
2010	-0.5	$400,000	-11.6	0.9
2011	0.0	$400,000	-4.4	0.4
2012	0.1	$450,000	-1.9	1.1
2013	0.2	$500,000	-0.6	0.8
2014	0.1	$450,000	-0.8	1.1
Peak	0.6	$150,000	0.0	7.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	5.87	7.40	8.96	7.17
2009	5.45	6.93	8.59	6.85
2010	5.74	7.43	10.76	7.33
2011	5.03	6.92	8.89	6.54
2012	5.16	7.06	8.67	6.09
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	14%	0%	19%
2009	36%	18%	23%
2010	56%	32%	16%
2011	74%	50%	17%
2012	78%	59%	14%
2013	81%	72%	16%
2014	87%	78%	15%

66

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Scott Downs	1999	66		11	Steve Wojciechowski	1994	53
2	Michael Hinckley	2006	64		12	DAVE GIBERTI	1994	53
3	Mike Matthews	1997	60		13	Jimmy Osting	2000	53
4	Scott Christman	1995	59		14	Brent Hoard	2000	52
5	Jason Anderson	1999	58		15	Shawn Senior	1995	52
6	Matt Ruebel	1993	57		16	Shawn Bryant	1993	52
7	Dave Zancanaro	1992	57		17	Bob Sismondo	2000	51
8	Danny Borrell	2002	55		18	Terry Farrar	1993	49
9	Alex Graman	2001	55		19	Jay Veniard	1998	49
10	Chris Hancock	1993	54		20	Ryan Mullins	2007	48

Player Comments

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2007

A draft-eligible Wichita State sophomore who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2005, Kristofer Johnson healed quickly and was the 40th overall pick last June. Limited to short stints, he made a nice debut at Lowell, generating a ton of groundballs and missing a fair share of bats while showing good velocity for a lefty.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	LOW	1A	0	2	0	14	13	30.2	25	7	27	0	63%	.305	-13	1.06	0.89	5.78	4.74	10.6	5.1	4.4	0.4	2.4		0.6
2007	LNC	1C	9	7	0	27	27	136.0	148	57	100	20	47%	.312	-24	1.51	5.56	7.73	7.34	11.2	5.5	3.7	2.0	-23.7		-0.2

Historical Stats