<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

He's probably very handsome. Mathew Kennelly
Atlanta Braves [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 20
6' 1"
180 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 BRA Rk 115 10 4 0 2 10 5 19 0 0 1.4 .215 .270 .308 -.609 .162 .191 .234 .113 -41.1 24-C -2 -2.2
2008 DNV Rk 177 14 9 0 4 25 8 37 0 2 -2.5 .246 .278 .371 -.541 .178 .205 .260 .142 -46.7 29-C 3 -1.7
2008 ROM A 42 4 5 0 0 10 2 8 0 0 0.3 .457 .475 .600 .244 .351 .381 .514 .302 4.1 10-C 1 0.6


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/7/09 12:44 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 419 33 24 1 7 40 22 99 1 1 -1.0 .236 .279 .358 -.227 .236 .278 .370 .220 -6.8 100-C -3 0.7
75o 403 28 21 1 6 36 20 97 1 1 -0.9 .221 .264 .332 -.301 .221 .263 .342 .204 -13.4 96-C -3 0.0
60o 388 24 19 1 5 33 19 95 1 1 -0.9 .209 .251 .310 -.362 .209 .250 .320 .189 -18.4 93-C -3 -0.5
50o 380 22 18 1 5 32 18 94 1 1 -0.8 .203 .245 .299 -.390 .203 .244 .309 .182 -20.6 91-C -3 -0.8
40o 372 20 17 1 5 31 17 93 1 1 -0.8 .198 .239 .289 -.418 .198 .238 .298 .174 -22.5 89-C -3 -1.0
25o 354 17 14 1 4 27 16 91 1 1 -0.7 .185 .226 .267 -.479 .186 .225 .276 .156 -26.4 85-C -3 -1.5
10o 326 13 12 0 3 23 14 87 1 1 -0.6 .171 .210 .240 -.553 .171 .209 .247 .130 -30.0 79-C -3 -1.9
Weighted Mean 374 21 17 1 5 32 18 93 1 1 -0.8 .201 .243 .295 -.395 .201 .241 .304 .178 -19.1 90-C -2 -0.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

68%

75%

16%

16%

1.35

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 20) 374 21 17 1 5 32 18 93 1 1 -0.8 .201 .243 .295 -.395 .201 .241 .304 .178 -19.1 90-C -2 -0.7
2010 (age 21) 391 25 18 1 6 37 20 95 1 1 -0.7 .212 .256 .317 -.355 .209 .252 .323 .195 -13.1 93-C -3 0.0
2011 (age 22) 397 27 18 1 7 38 22 92 1 1 -0.6 .213 .261 .322 -.339 .210 .256 .328 .199 -10.7 95-C -4 0.1
2012 (age 23) 345 24 15 1 8 36 21 79 1 1 -0.4 .224 .274 .349 -.273 .220 .269 .355 .215 -4.9 83-C -4 0.4
2013 (age 24) 318 21 14 1 6 32 17 68 1 1 -0.3 .223 .270 .341 -.292 .220 .265 .347 .210 -4.2 77-C -4 0.2
2014 (age 25) 325 21 15 1 7 35 18 72 1 1 -0.2 .214 .260 .339 -.317 .211 .255 .345 .205 -4.2 79-C -5 0.0
2015 (age 26) 343 23 15 0 8 38 19 77 1 1 -0.2 .214 .260 .340 -.317 .211 .255 .346 .205 -3.6 83-C -5 0.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .217 .261 .322
vs RHP .197 .237 .284
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -23.2 -2.0 -0.7 $400,000 -18.4 0.0
2010 -19.0 -3.0 0.0 $400,000 -12.4 0.1
2011 -17.7 -4.0 0.1 $400,000 -10.2 0.2
2012 -10.5 -4.0 0.4 $525,000 -4.3 1.4
2013 -11.1 -4.0 0.2 $500,000 -3.5 0.8
2014 -13.0 -5.0 0.0 $400,000 -4.8 0.4
2015 -13.6 -5.0 0.1 $450,000 -3.5 0.2
Peak 0.9 $700,000 -2.8 3.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .204 .182 .156 .178
2010 .218 .196 .167 .195
2011 .220 .198 .177 .199
2012 .241 .214 .187 .215
2013 .233 .207 .183 .210
2014 .235 .214 .171 .205
2015 .242 .201 .170 .205


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 16% 0% 68%
2010 29% 16% 78%
2011 43% 26% 83%
2012 53% 38% 83%
2013 63% 52% 81%
2014 70% 61% 78%
2015 78% 69% 79%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

56

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Hector Rivera 1981 57 11 Yohanny Valera 1996 41
2 Carlos Perez 2008 55 12 Robert Machado 1993 41
3 Anel De_Los_Santos 2008 50 13 Timothy Kennelly 2007 40
4 Luis Rivera 1985 49 14 Victor Barrios 2007 39
5 Justin Huber 2002 46 15 Otto Gonzalez 1984 39
6 Fred Torres 2000 45 16 Pascual Matos 1995 38
7 Ricardo Mahoney 1999 45 17 Omar Fuentes 2000 38
8 Juan Apodaca 2006 45 18 Miguel Perez 2004 38
9 Raul Santana 1992 41 19 Angel Rodriguez 1981 38
10 Wally Rosa 2002 41 20 Joe Ayrault 1992 37

Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.