Kasey Kiker

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 10:57 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	6	8	0	22	22	116.7	123	87	84	15	41%	.301	1	1.80	5.05	5.76	4.74	9.0	6.2	5.9	1.1	9.8	1.9	2.2
75^o	5	8	0	22	22	109.7	123	88	79	18	41%	.310	-5	1.93	5.97	6.51	5.60	9.6	6.6	5.9	1.4	-2.5	0.6	1.0
60^o	4	9	0	22	22	102.0	122	88	74	20	41%	.320	-11	2.06	7.03	7.28	6.59	10.3	7.1	5.9	1.7	-14.8	-0.7	-0.3
50^o	4	9	0	21	21	99.3	121	87	72	20	41%	.323	-13	2.10	7.47	7.54	7.01	10.5	7.3	5.9	1.8	-19.5	-1.2	-0.8
40^o	3	9	0	21	21	96.3	120	86	70	20	41%	.325	-15	2.13	7.95	7.73	7.48	10.6	7.4	5.9	1.9	-24.6	-1.7	-1.3
25^o	3	9	0	21	21	92.3	114	82	67	19	41%	.324	-16	2.11	8.83	7.61	8.46	10.5	7.3	5.9	1.8	-34.6	-2.7	-2.4
10^o	2	9	0	25	18	91.7	98	70	66	13	41%	.303	-11	1.83	9.53	5.94	9.64	9.2	6.3	5.9	1.2	-47.8	-4.0	-3.6
Weighted Mean	4	10	0	23	23	108.7	130	93	79	21	41%	.319	-11	2.05	7.14	7.24	6.71	10.2	7.1	5.9	1.7	-15.0	-0.9	-0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
33%	70%	9%	12%	1.35

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 20)	4	10	0	23	23	108.7	130	93	79	21	41%	.319	-11	2.05	7.14	7.24	6.71	10.2	7.1	5.9	1.7	-15.0	-0.9	-0.2
2009 (age 21)	4	8	0	28	18	97.0	115	77	72	19	40%	.316	-13	1.96	6.84	6.93	6.42	10.1	6.5	6.0	1.7	-10.7	-0.5	0.1
2010 (age 22)	4	7	0	30	16	91.7	105	78	67	16	39%	.313	-15	1.99	6.72	6.81	6.33	9.8	7.0	6.0	1.5	-8.4	-0.4	0.2
2011 (age 23)	3	5	0	25	11	67.3	80	53	52	11	40%	.328	-13	1.97	6.73	6.83	6.34	10.2	6.5	6.2	1.5	-7.5	-0.4	0.1
2012 (age 24)	4	7	0	33	13	87.0	107	53	67	17	40%	.327	-10	1.83	6.63	6.67	6.20	10.5	5.1	6.2	1.8	-5.7	-0.3	0.2
2013 (age 25)	4	7	1	43	11	96.7	110	52	71	20	40%	.303	-9	1.67	6.04	6.04	5.66	9.8	4.4	5.9	1.8	-2.1	0.1	0.7
2014 (age 26)	3	4	0	28	7	60.7	73	33	45	13	40%	.318	-10	1.75	6.36	6.43	5.94	10.3	4.5	6.0	1.8	-3.4	-0.1	0.3

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.275	.420	.472
vs RHB	.300	.441	.542
Split	-.025	-.020	-.070
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	-0.2	$400,000	-13.1	1.9
2009	0.1	$400,000	-9.1	1.6
2010	0.2	$450,000	-7.0	4.0
2011	0.1	$425,000	-6.3	4.0
2012	0.2	$475,000	-4.6	3.1
2013	0.7	$950,000	-0.9	4.6
2014	0.3	$600,000	-2.4	1.9
Peak	1.8	$700,000	0.0	20.9

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	5.60	7.01	8.46	6.71
2009	5.37	6.50	7.90	6.42
2010	4.96	6.63	8.76	6.33
2011	4.77	7.11	9.36	6.34
2012	5.08	6.48	8.72	6.20
2013	4.12	5.86	7.90	5.66
2014	5.65	6.48	7.14	5.94

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	12%	0%	33%
2009	21%	7%	46%
2010	28%	12%	39%
2011	40%	17%	35%
2012	53%	32%	36%
2013	47%	31%	37%
2014	68%	48%	31%

28

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Travis Wood	2007	48		11	Dan Serafini	1994	25
2	Brian Barber	1993	45		12	Jason Miller	2003	25
3	John Danks	2005	44		13	Darwin Peguero	1999	25
4	Bobby Seay	1999	35		14	Francisco Rodriguez	2002	25
5	Bubba Nelson	2002	34		15	Gil Meche	1999	24
6	Ryan Tucker	2007	33		16	Troy Carrasco	1995	24
7	Jake Woods	2002	30		17	Juan Cedeno	2004	23
8	Matt Ford	2001	27		18	Dave Doorneweerd	1993	23
9	Bruce Chen	1998	27		19	Luis Colmenares	1997	22
10	Josh Girdley	2001	25		20	Justin Thompson	1993	22

Player Comments

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2007

The team`s first-round pick in 2006, Kasey Kiker is a short left-hander who touched 98 MPH in high school, drawing some early Billy Wagner comparisons. It`s too soon to be thinking that way, but he has the potential.

Historical Stats