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Justin Knoedler
Oakland Athletics [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 27
6' 2"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 NRW 2A 13 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 1 0.2 .300 .417 .300 .075 .364 .462 .364 .295 1.1 0.1
2005 FRE 3A 327 35 19 1 4 32 26 61 5 5 1.6 .272 .345 .387 -.062 .237 .302 .336 .223 -5.6 77-C 4 2.2
2005 SFN MJ 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.1 .100 .182 .100 -.754 .100 .182 .100 .000 -1.6 0.0
2006 NRW 2A 76 7 6 0 1 8 4 24 1 1 0.4 .211 .263 .338 -.095 .208 .260 .319 .198 -4.2 21-C -2 0.2
2006 FRE 3A 261 32 13 4 4 27 22 58 4 0 1.2 .253 .319 .395 -.051 .228 .290 .359 .229 -4.5 63-C -1 1.2
2006 SFN MJ 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.0 .143 .143 .143 -.821 .143 .143 .143 .000 -1.2 0.0
2007 FRE 3A 336 44 30 2 7 42 26 78 7 1 -2.2 .288 .346 .470 .092 .250 .307 .421 .253 6.1 78-C 4 3.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 12:45 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 354 43 21 2 8 39 25 88 7 2 0.4 .260 .318 .414 -.057 .264 .323 .441 .268 11.9 85-C 1 3.3
75o 335 36 19 2 7 36 23 84 6 2 0.4 .246 .303 .388 -.125 .250 .309 .413 .255 5.5 81-C 1 2.6
60o 323 32 18 1 6 33 21 81 5 2 0.3 .237 .294 .370 -.171 .241 .299 .395 .245 1.6 78-C 1 2.2
50o 309 28 16 1 5 30 20 77 5 2 0.3 .228 .283 .351 -.220 .231 .288 .375 .235 -2.2 75-C 1 1.8
40o 301 26 15 1 5 29 19 76 5 2 0.3 .222 .278 .341 -.246 .226 .282 .364 .229 -4.2 73-C 1 1.6
25o 278 21 13 1 4 25 17 70 4 2 0.3 .208 .262 .314 -.317 .212 .267 .335 .212 -8.8 68-C 0 1.1
10o 248 15 11 1 2 20 14 63 3 1 0.2 .191 .244 .281 -.402 .194 .248 .300 .190 -13.2 61-C 0 0.5
Weighted Mean 313 29 16 1 5 31 20 78 5 2 0.3 .229 .285 .354 -.213 .233 .290 .377 .236 -2.3 76-C 1 2.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

29%

51%

26%

18%

0.78

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 27) 313 29 16 1 5 31 20 78 5 2 0.3 .229 .285 .354 -.213 .233 .290 .377 .236 -2.3 76-C 1 2.3
2009 (age 28) 285 26 15 1 5 27 20 69 4 2 0.2 .229 .289 .359 -.199 .236 .299 .390 .239 -0.5 70-C 1 1.7
2010 (age 29) 265 23 13 1 5 27 18 65 4 1 0.2 .230 .290 .359 -.197 .237 .299 .390 .240 -0.3 65-C 2 1.5
2011 (age 30) 245 21 13 1 5 24 17 60 3 1 0.2 .228 .289 .357 -.202 .235 .299 .387 .238 -0.6 61-C 1 1.2
2012 (age 31) 189 14 10 1 3 18 13 43 2 1 0.1 .228 .288 .352 -.210 .235 .298 .382 .236 -0.6 48-C 1 0.8
2013 (age 32) 268 23 13 1 4 26 19 62 3 1 0.1 .226 .290 .340 -.223 .233 .300 .370 .234 -0.8 66-C 1 0.7
2014 (age 33) 175 13 8 1 3 17 13 43 2 1 0.1 .227 .294 .345 -.211 .234 .304 .374 .237 -0.4 45-C 1 0.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .245 .304 .379
vs RHP .225 .278 .341
Split +.020 +.026 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.2 2.0 2.3 $2,825,000 1.0 2.6
2009 0.2 1.5 1.7 $2,375,000 2.3 4.9
2010 0.2 1.3 1.5 $2,250,000 2.3 4.9
2011 0.2 1.0 1.2 $1,750,000 1.1 3.7
2012 0.1 0.7 0.8 $1,225,000 0.8 2.6
2013 0.1 0.6 0.7 $1,025,000 0.3 1.1
2014 0.1 0.5 0.6 $1,050,000 0.5 1.5
Peak 8.2 $7,900,000 7.9 19.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .255 .235 .212 .236
2009 .252 .228 .215 .239
2010 .257 .237 .204 .240
2011 .257 .236 .210 .238
2012 .246 .228 .206 .236
2013 .253 .223 .208 .234
2014 .247 .235 .203 .237


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 18% 0% 29%
2009 32% 13% 25%
2010 48% 24% 20%
2011 54% 35% 20%
2012 76% 50% 14%
2013 73% 60% 11%
2014 87% 66% 6%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

62

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
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Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Paul Hoover 1992 40 11 Barry Lyons 2003 33
2 Chad Moeller 1979 36 12 Brian Peterson 1971 33
3 Josh Paul 1981 36 13 Brandon Marsters 1982 33
4 A.J. Hinch 1970 36 14 Brian Loyd 1960 33
5 Mike Figga 1973 35 15 Josh Rabe 2007 32
6 Danny Ardoin 1992 35 16 Pete Daley 1975 32
7 Blake Barthol 1975 34 17 Tim Olson 1969 32
8 Paul Chiaffredo 1975 34 18 Jim Horner 2000 31
9 Ray Katt 1957 34 19 Yamid Haad 1979 30
10 Jorge Pedre 1998 33 20 Phil Roof 2005 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Knoedler and Alfonzo shared the catching duties at Fresno last year, and, while Knoedler hit better there, it was Alfonzo who was called up to replace Matheny. Knoedler gets high marks for his arm and game-calling skills--he was actually drafted as a pitcher, so he has some firsthand knowledge of what goes on out there on the mound--but hasn`t shown any kind of batting aptitude. Signing Bengie Molina led to Knoedler`s being DFAed in January.

2006

Knoedler is fantastic behind the plate and has a cannon for an arm, but it doesn`t look like he will hit enough to be a starter in the majors. At press time it looked like the Giants would leave Knoedler in Triple-A to get at-bats, but he could easily enough be flipped with Haad and become Matheny`s backup.

2005

Not a bad season, as Knoedler dealt with his first full season at Double-A. It was also year three of the switch-back experiment, with Knoedler having gone from college catcher to dominant rookie-ball reliever in 2001, and then back to catcher. He's shown emerging power, so it's unlikely he'll switch back. If everything breaks right, in a couple years he'll be a candidate for a big league backup job, probably just before the Giants give Einar Diaz a four-year deal.


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