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George Kottaras
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 25
6'
185 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 LEL 1C 394 54 29 0 9 50 50 60 2 1 -1.1 .303 .390 .469 .138 .239 .316 .348 .236 -2.3 81-C -7 1.5
2005 MOB 2A 121 16 7 0 2 15 19 23 0 0 0.0 .287 .397 .416 .141 .250 .347 .385 .259 3.3 24-C -4 0.8
2006 MOB 2A 310 40 19 1 8 33 50 68 0 1 -0.4 .276 .394 .451 .226 .263 .371 .450 .285 21.1 67-C -8 2.4
2006 POR 3A 133 14 10 1 2 17 12 30 0 0 0.0 .210 .286 .361 -.187 .192 .263 .333 .207 -6.0 28-C -4 0.1
2007 PAW 3A 334 32 22 0 9 39 32 71 1 1 -1.3 .241 .316 .408 -.036 .229 .300 .391 .242 0.0 82-C -11 1.4


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 12:49 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 313 37 21 1 8 40 33 66 2 1 -0.6 .272 .351 .439 .041 .265 .348 .449 .280 14.2 76-C -7 2.6
75o 297 30 18 1 7 36 29 65 2 1 -0.5 .254 .329 .403 -.057 .247 .325 .411 .261 6.5 72-C -5 1.9
60o 290 28 17 1 6 34 27 65 1 1 -0.5 .246 .320 .388 -.097 .240 .316 .396 .253 3.6 71-C -5 1.7
50o 284 26 16 1 6 33 26 64 1 1 -0.5 .239 .311 .374 -.135 .233 .308 .382 .245 0.9 69-C -4 1.5
40o 279 24 15 1 5 31 25 64 1 1 -0.5 .235 .305 .365 -.160 .228 .302 .373 .240 -0.8 68-C -4 1.3
25o 270 21 14 1 5 29 23 63 1 1 -0.4 .225 .293 .346 -.210 .219 .290 .354 .229 -3.9 66-C -4 1.1
10o 246 15 11 0 3 24 18 61 1 1 -0.4 .203 .265 .302 -.331 .198 .262 .308 .199 -10.7 61-C -2 0.4
Weighted Mean 287 26 16 1 6 34 26 65 1 1 -0.5 .241 .314 .378 -.124 .235 .310 .386 .247 1.2 70-C -4 2.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

18%

47%

22%

25%

0.90

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 25) 287 26 16 1 6 34 26 65 1 1 -0.5 .241 .314 .378 -.124 .235 .310 .386 .247 1.2 70-C -4 2.0
2009 (age 26) 298 29 16 1 6 36 28 64 2 1 -0.4 .244 .319 .383 -.105 .241 .321 .399 .251 2.6 73-C -5 1.6
2010 (age 27) 287 27 15 1 6 34 28 62 2 1 -0.3 .242 .319 .378 -.115 .239 .320 .393 .249 1.6 70-C -5 1.2
2011 (age 28) 333 36 19 1 8 41 32 68 2 1 -0.3 .253 .327 .401 -.064 .249 .328 .417 .258 3.4 80-C -7 1.2
2012 (age 29) 275 26 15 0 6 34 26 56 1 1 -0.2 .246 .321 .385 -.100 .243 .322 .400 .252 1.6 67-C -5 1.0
2013 (age 30) 267 23 13 0 5 34 26 52 1 0 -0.2 .234 .311 .364 -.150 .231 .313 .378 .242 0.0 66-C -7 0.7
2014 (age 31) 288 24 13 0 6 38 23 59 1 1 -0.2 .225 .290 .351 -.210 .222 .291 .366 .227 -1.6 70-C -9 0.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .219 .288 .332
vs RHP .249 .326 .410
Split -.030 -.038 -.077
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.5 1.5 2.0 $2,225,000 -1.6 3.1
2009 0.6 1.0 1.6 $1,800,000 -0.6 4.1
2010 0.4 0.8 1.2 $1,400,000 -0.9 3.3
2011 0.5 0.7 1.2 $1,675,000 1.0 2.2
2012 0.3 0.6 1.0 $1,300,000 0.2 3.5
2013 0.2 0.5 0.7 $1,000,000 -2.1 1.1
2014 0.1 0.4 0.5 $825,000 -4.0 0.9
Peak 7.6 $6,000,000 0.2 17.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .261 .245 .229 .247
2009 .267 .245 .216 .251
2010 .265 .239 .211 .249
2011 .271 .255 .230 .258
2012 .263 .249 .220 .252
2013 .268 .226 .195 .242
2014 .270 .227 .181 .227


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 25% 0% 18%
2009 37% 15% 24%
2010 58% 32% 21%
2011 57% 47% 23%
2012 67% 49% 17%
2013 75% 56% 18%
2014 74% 57% 14%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

For five starts worth of a revitalized David Wells, Theo Epstein scored a nice haul with the fourth catcher to change hands between the Red Sox and Padres within a year. Kottaras` size, durability, and will to endure the daily grind of catching are all concerns, but he offers a nice mix of line-drive power and good plate discipline; his bat could support a position change if necessary. He`ll likely spend the season in Pawtucket, but could see Boston if Varitek is sidelined again.

2006

The fraternity of former hot catching prospects is fraught with disappointment--ask Matt LeCroy or Toby Hall. Kottaras resembles a young Craig Biggio more than behemoths like LeCroy or Hall, though, and he looks like he`s going to be a pretty fair defensive backstop. His 36 doubles and 69 walks last year point to some promising line-drive power and a good batting eye, traits that will serve him well at higher levels. With just 101 Double-A at-bats on his record, he won`t be a factor in the big leagues in 2006. Look for Kottaras in 2007--Doug Mirabelli is not a long-term solution behind the plate.

2005

With apologies to Josh Barfield, here's the best prospect in the system. A native Canadian grabbed out of junior college as a 20th-round pick as a draft-and-follow, Kottaras showed a precocious batting eye, intriguing doubles power and great defensive instincts behind the plate. The Padres compare him to Brad Ausmus with the glove, Jorge Posada with the bat. If you're in a deep dynasty league, feign ignorance, grab him, and you'll be gloating four years from now.


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