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He's probably very handsome. Brett Lawrie
Milwaukee Brewers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 19
6'
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/8/09 1:27 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 526 46 27 2 7 46 34 133 6 3 0.8 .228 .282 .339 -.255 .230 .280 .349 .216 -11.7 124-C -6 0.0
75o 506 40 24 2 7 43 32 133 5 3 0.7 .216 .269 .319 -.311 .218 .268 .329 .204 -17.9 119-C -6 -0.6
60o 471 31 19 2 5 37 29 132 5 2 0.6 .198 .251 .289 -.398 .200 .249 .297 .183 -26.1 111-C -5 -1.4
50o 454 28 17 2 5 34 27 132 5 2 0.6 .190 .242 .275 -.435 .192 .241 .283 .173 -29.1 108-C -5 -1.7
40o 435 24 16 2 4 31 26 130 4 2 0.6 .182 .234 .261 -.475 .183 .232 .269 .161 -31.9 103-C -4 -2.0
25o 401 19 13 1 4 27 23 127 4 2 0.5 .169 .220 .239 -.537 .170 .218 .246 .141 -35.2 96-C -4 -2.4
10o 246 7 4 1 1 10 13 98 2 1 0.2 .126 .175 .167 -.734 .127 .174 .172 .048 -32.9 61-C -1 -2.3
Weighted Mean 490 33 20 2 6 39 30 137 5 2 0.6 .199 .252 .290 -.384 .201 .250 .299 .184 -22.3 116-C -7 -1.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

0%

0%

0%

0%

1.30

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 19) 490 33 20 2 6 39 30 137 5 2 0.6 .199 .252 .290 -.384 .201 .250 .299 .184 -22.3 116-C -7 -1.1
2010 (age 20) 486 38 21 2 8 44 33 133 5 3 0.7 .209 .266 .319 -.335 .208 .261 .325 .203 -16.3 115-C -6 -0.2
2011 (age 21) 531 49 26 2 11 53 36 131 6 3 0.8 .228 .284 .357 -.241 .227 .279 .363 .223 -6.6 125-C -8 0.5
2012 (age 22) 455 42 21 2 10 46 35 109 5 2 0.8 .230 .294 .363 -.216 .228 .288 .369 .230 -3.5 108-C -8 0.6
2013 (age 23) 482 51 24 2 13 43 36 105 6 3 0.9 .252 .313 .403 -.112 .250 .307 .410 .249 5.9 114-C -9 1.4
2014 (age 24) 436 44 19 1 12 40 37 91 6 2 0.8 .249 .316 .395 -.120 .247 .310 .401 .249 4.5 104-C -7 1.3
2015 (age 25) 418 42 21 2 12 44 35 87 5 2 0.7 .248 .313 .406 -.112 .246 .307 .413 .250 4.4 99-C -7 1.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .216 .270 .318
vs RHP .195 .246 .280
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -27.1 -7.0 -1.1 $400,000 -25.1 0.0
2010 -19.2 -6.0 -0.2 $400,000 -18.9 0.3
2011 -10.8 -8.0 0.5 $400,000 -10.2 1.9
2012 -6.3 -8.0 0.6 $400,000 -7.3 2.9
2013 3.2 -9.0 1.4 $2,150,000 1.5 6.5
2014 2.9 -7.0 1.3 $2,400,000 2.6 7.1
2015 3.2 -7.0 1.2 $2,400,000 2.5 6.1
Peak 8.3 $7,575,000 7.2 34.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .204 .173 .141 .184
2010 .226 .204 .174 .203
2011 .245 .224 .197 .223
2012 .247 .226 .212 .230
2013 .269 .254 .226 .249
2014 .277 .250 .217 .249
2015 .267 .246 .220 .250


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 N/A 0% N/A
2010 N/A 4% N/A
2011 N/A 8% N/A
2012 N/A 11% N/A
2013 N/A 19% N/A
2014 N/A 22% N/A
2015 N/A 29% N/A

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

27

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 John Gibbons 1981 56 11 Eddie Williams 1984 25
2 Phil Clark 1987 55 12 Greg David 1986 25
3 Mike Lieberthal 1991 53 13 Damian Rolls 1997 24
4 Derek Parks 1988 47 14 Jeff Reed 1982 23
5 Erik Pappas 1985 46 15 Bart Mackie 1981 22
6 Keith Fisher 1981 43 16 David Wright 2002 21
7 Corey Smith 2001 40 17 Trey McCall 1986 20
8 Butch Garcia 1985 39 18 Pokey Reese 1992 19
9 Travis D'Arnaud 2008 38 19 Royce Clayton 1989 19
10 Brandon Snyder 2006 33 20 Paul Konerko 1995 19

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