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Javy Lopez
Atlanta Braves [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 37
6' 3"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
ESPN Player Card
tsn.ca Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 BOW 2A 16 1 1 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 0.0 .400 .375 .467 .312 .267 .250 .333 .208 -0.9 0.0
2005 BAL MJ 423 47 24 1 15 49 19 68 0 1 -0.9 .278 .322 .458 .050 .285 .336 .482 .276 19.5 71-C -5 2.8
2006 BOW 2A 8 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0.0 .286 .375 .857 .732 .286 .375 .857 .363 1.8 0.1
2006 BAL MJ 299 30 15 1 8 31 18 60 0 0 -6.1 .265 .314 .412 -.079 .268 .324 .424 .257 2.0 20-C -3 0.6
2006 BOS MJ 65 6 5 0 0 4 2 16 0 0 0.2 .190 .215 .270 -.530 .194 .231 .258 .156 -5.6 15-C -3 -0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 1:21 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 135 17 7 0 4 16 11 24 0 1 -0.6 .289 .352 .461 .062 .286 .350 .470 .276 6.8 36-C -6 0.9
75o 128 14 6 0 3 15 10 24 0 0 -0.5 .260 .323 .404 -.087 .258 .321 .412 .249 2.0 34-C -6 0.5
60o 124 12 5 0 3 14 9 24 1 0 -0.5 .246 .309 .376 -.159 .244 .307 .384 .236 0.0 34-C -6 0.3
50o 123 11 5 0 3 14 9 24 1 0 -0.5 .241 .304 .365 -.186 .239 .302 .373 .231 -0.9 33-C -6 0.3
40o 120 10 5 0 2 14 9 24 1 0 -0.4 .229 .293 .343 -.244 .227 .291 .350 .219 -2.4 33-C -6 0.1
25o 117 9 5 0 2 13 9 23 1 0 -0.4 .219 .282 .323 -.295 .217 .280 .329 .208 -3.8 32-C -6 0.0
10o 100 5 3 0 1 10 7 22 1 0 -0.3 .171 .233 .227 -.536 .170 .232 .232 .145 -8.8 28-C -5 -0.5
Weighted Mean 123 11 5 0 3 14 9 24 1 0 -0.5 .239 .302 .362 -.194 .237 .300 .370 .228 0.0 33-C -6 0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

16%

21%

50%

42%

0.82

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 37) 123 11 5 0 3 14 9 24 1 0 -0.5 .239 .302 .362 -.194 .237 .300 .370 .228 0.0 33-C -6 0.3
2009 (age 38) 89 7 4 0 2 11 7 17 0 0 -0.2 .224 .287 .344 -.256 .219 .281 .344 .215 -1.2 26-C -4 0.1
2010 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2011 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 43)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .252 .320 .386
vs RHP .235 .295 .349
Split +.017 +.026 +.037
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.0 0.3 0.3 $500,000 -3.0 0.1
2009 0.0 0.1 0.1 $400,000 -2.4 0.0
2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 $400,000 -1.1 0.0
2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 $425,000 0.1 0.0
2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 $425,000 -0.3 0.0
2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 $425,000 0.0 0.0
2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 $450,000 0.0 0.0
Peak 0.4 $125,000 0.0 0.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .249 .231 .208 .228
2009 .259 .223 .183 .215
2010
-- out of baseball --
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 42% 0% 16%
2009 79% 41% 9%
2010 99% 70% 2%
2011 96% 89% 2%
2012 95% 95% 1%
2013 100% 99% 0%
2014 100% 100% 0%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Lopez entered the season already disgruntled by the Orioles` signing of Ramon Hernandez. When the O`s asked him to learn first base but didn`t accompany the request with a contract extension, Lopez allowed a slow start at the plate to distract him from breaking in that new mitt; he never played a regular-season game at first. Confined to a DH/backup backstop role and troubled by back and neck problems, his misery was such a perfect fit within the general Orioles malaise that it came as a surprise when the Sox traded for him in the wake of Varitek`s injury. The move was a disaster; Lopez didn`t hit, and the Sox didn`t win. When Varitek returned, the team promptly pulled the plug. The market for recalcitrant 36-year-old catchers with declining skills on both sides of the ball being what it is, Lopez is still looking for a job at this writing.

2006

It was a given that Lopez wouldn`t match his 2003 season in Baltimore. Besides losing the motivation of a free-agent year, he was a 32-year-old catcher with more than 1100 games on his knees. His production declined again last year: his rate stats were down across the board, and a broken hand cost him two months. On the plus side, 2006 is the final year of his three-year deal, and with the addition of Ramon Hernandez, he`ll be DHing. If anything were to bring his hitting back up, it would be that-unless he sulks over the "demotion."

2005

The O's got about as much as they could reasonably expect for their $22.5 million, as Lopez retained much of the value from his 2003 breakout. That was a pleasant surprise, given how likely he was to suffer a natural regression to historical norms. He set career highs for plate appearances and games caught, though, and he made no secret of his unhappiness with playing that frequently, annoying some in the organization. If it hurt him down the stretch, it didn't show up in the boxscores. The team has talked about getting him more time at DH or first base, but so far it's been just talk.

2003

Lopez strained his right shoulder in July, and it bothered him the rest of the way. On the other hand, he wasn’t exactly going great guns while he was still healthy. He might bounce back a little—a little, mind you—if the presence of Johnny Estrada helps him get more days off.

2002

Lopez's decision to sign a one-year, $6-million contract with the Braves was one of the first signs that last winter was going to be different for mid-level free agents. Granted, he's been declining steadily, but he was the best catcher on the market by far, and he came with all sorts of "winner" cachet. The Braves saved a bunch of money on the Javy Lopez and Andruw Jones deals; it's a shame they wasted the savings on crap like Vinny Castilla and Albie Lopez.

2001

It's hard to shake the feeling that Javy Lopez came along just a few years too late. A catcher who plays passable defense and hits a consistent .280 with 25 home runs would have been a god in the 1980s. Unfortunately, this is the age of Piazza and Pudge, so Lopez gets lost in the shuffle. (Greg Maddux not liking the way he catches doesn't help his image.) He still has a few good years, and probably one great one, left in him. That projection is very low.

2000

The torn right ACL that ended his season was the single biggest reason there was a race in the NL East last year. The gap between Lopez and the Greg Myers/Eddie Perez platoon that replaced him was worth at least two games, possibly more. Lopez was the Braves’ best player at the time of the injury, and is about as good as a player who walks 30 times a year can be. He’s expected to be healthy and ready to go in March.

1999

He gets almost no attention in the Braves’ constellation of stars, but after Mike Piazza, there isn’t a better-hitting catcher in the game. He started to develop a reputation as a clutch hitter last season, and his game-tying homer against the Cubs in the Division Series added to it. As we’ve said a million times, there’s no evidence that clutch-hitting exists, but there’s no harm if it gets Lopez some much-deserved accolades. His defense is actually good, and despite Eddie Perez’s fluky season, the Braves need to convince Greg Maddux to work with Lopez more, because they’re handing playoff opponents an advantage every time Lopez sits.

1998

Lopez improved this year, posting career bests in OBP and slugging while improving defensively. Since coming in amidst lots of hype, he’s settled into being an above-average catcher without anyone knowing. If Vlad’s right, he’ll be an MVP candidate. Hit .456/.878 on the first pitch in 1997, well above average.

1997

Wow. That projection looks awfully big. A Terry Steinbach for the next generation. Not exactly Greg Maddux’s personal caddy. I don’t understand the well-publicized preference of Maddux for catchers who can’t hit – considering the run support he got, you’d think he’d want to hand Ryan Klesko the mask. Lopez is a very good and valuable ballplayer, and will be for the next five years.


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