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Jed Lowrie
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Shortstop
Bats B
Age 24
6'
180 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
3B 6 Jed Lowrie 5 34 .261 10 1 11 0 .336 .413 2.7
SS 9 Jed Lowrie 10 63 .261 10 1 11 0 .336 .413 2.7
2   2008 Total 15 97 .261 10 1 11 0 .336 .413 2.7

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 LOW 1A 240 36 12 0 4 32 34 30 7 5 2.9 .328 .429 .448 .301 .254 .331 .343 .237 4.7 40-SS -3 1.1
2006 WIL 1C 438 43 21 6 3 50 54 65 2 2 -0.9 .262 .352 .374 .032 .227 .302 .328 .224 -6.7 88-SS -10 0.9
2007 PME 2A 408 61 31 7 8 49 65 58 5 3 2.8 .297 .410 .501 .272 .266 .371 .460 .286 31.3 84-SS -7 4.0
2007 PAW 3A 177 21 16 1 5 21 12 33 0 1 -1.6 .300 .356 .506 .200 .280 .333 .497 .277 13.3 31-SS 8 2.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 1:24 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 638 91 46 4 15 75 71 111 8 4 0.7 .290 .372 .469 .128 .282 .368 .479 .296 44.4 149-SS -2 7.0
75o 608 78 41 3 13 71 64 109 7 4 0.6 .276 .355 .442 .054 .269 .351 .452 .283 31.8 142-SS -3 5.7
60o 579 66 37 3 12 68 57 107 6 3 0.5 .263 .338 .417 -.017 .256 .335 .426 .269 20.5 136-SS -4 4.6
50o 569 63 36 3 11 67 55 106 6 3 0.5 .258 .332 .408 -.041 .251 .329 .417 .264 16.8 133-SS -4 4.2
40o 559 59 35 3 10 65 53 105 6 3 0.5 .254 .327 .400 -.063 .247 .324 .409 .260 13.6 131-SS -4 3.9
25o 532 51 31 3 9 62 47 102 5 3 0.5 .243 .313 .378 -.124 .236 .309 .386 .247 5.2 125-SS -5 3.0
10o 509 44 29 3 8 59 43 100 4 3 0.4 .234 .300 .360 -.174 .227 .297 .368 .237 -1.1 120-SS -5 2.3
Weighted Mean 600 69 38 3 12 70 58 111 6 3 0.5 .261 .336 .413 -.028 .254 .332 .422 .266 16.9 140-SS -4 4.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

27%

62%

10%

9%

0.87

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 24) 600 69 38 3 12 70 58 111 6 3 0.5 .261 .336 .413 -.028 .254 .332 .422 .266 16.9 140-SS -4 4.9
2009 (age 25) 572 65 37 3 11 67 57 102 6 3 0.4 .260 .337 .413 -.025 .257 .339 .429 .267 16.3 134-SS -4 4.1
2010 (age 26) 565 67 38 3 13 69 60 104 6 3 0.4 .264 .346 .432 .018 .261 .348 .450 .276 19.9 132-SS -5 4.2
2011 (age 27) 504 56 33 2 11 60 53 89 5 2 0.3 .263 .344 .423 .002 .260 .346 .440 .273 17.3 119-SS -6 3.7
2012 (age 28) 453 47 28 2 10 56 48 81 4 2 0.3 .262 .343 .422 -.002 .259 .345 .439 .272 13.9 107-SS -7 3.1
2013 (age 29) 507 54 31 3 11 64 53 88 4 2 0.2 .257 .338 .411 -.029 .254 .339 .428 .266 10.9 120-SS -7 2.8
2014 (age 30) 413 42 26 1 10 54 43 68 4 2 0.2 .262 .342 .422 -.004 .258 .344 .439 .271 11.2 98-SS -6 2.8

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .262 .326 .420
vs RHP .261 .340 .408
Split +.001 -.014 +.012
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 2.1 2.8 4.9 $10,175,000 17.3 18.3
2009 1.8 2.3 4.1 $9,000,000 16.4 17.8
2010 2.2 2.1 4.2 $10,525,000 19.6 25.8
2011 1.9 1.8 3.7 $9,150,000 14.9 18.7
2012 1.6 1.5 3.1 $7,825,000 12.2 17.1
2013 1.3 1.5 2.8 $7,050,000 9.9 10.6
2014 1.3 1.5 2.8 $7,850,000 10.4 14.3
Peak 22.8 $43,300,000 90.2 108.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .283 .264 .247 .266
2009 .277 .260 .243 .267
2010 .287 .263 .241 .276
2011 .287 .266 .248 .273
2012 .291 .252 .226 .272
2013 .282 .257 .239 .266
2014 .285 .263 .233 .271


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 9% 0% 27%
2009 26% 4% 26%
2010 28% 7% 36%
2011 30% 13% 35%
2012 54% 24% 36%
2013 45% 26% 30%
2014 57% 30% 28%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

A 2005 first-round supplemental pick, Lowrie led the New York-Penn League in OBP while surviving the switch from second base to shortstop. His Carolina League stint didn`t go as well. Already off to a slow start, Lowrie missed five weeks due to a high ankle sprain, and was nearly demoted back to Lowell when he struggled upon returning. As late as August 4 he was hitting just .233/.330/.305, but he closed the season with a .327/.380/.529 month, and maintained good plate discipline all year despite his woes. He`s got the arm for shortstop, but his speed is only average, and he may not have enough range; a move back to second wouldn`t surprise anyone, but you can`t fault the Sox for challenging him.

2006

Lowrie was the Pac-10 player of the year for Stanford in 2004, but an off season allowed the Red Sox to take him with the 33rd pick in the draft. Though he was a second baseman in college, the Red Sox like to challenge their prospects defensively and moved Lowrie to short. The organization liked what it saw and will leave him there for now. The switch-hitter excelled on offense, leading the NY-Penn League in on-base-percentage. Lowrie is an advanced player, so expect him to move quickly through the system.


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