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He's probably very handsome. Jonathan Lucroy
Milwaukee Brewers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 22
6'
185 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2007 HEL 0R 253 35 18 2 4 39 16 37 0 3 -3.3 .342 .383 .487 .254 .248 .285 .340 .214 -11.4 32-C 6 1.2


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 1:26 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 528 57 34 2 9 54 40 110 4 3 -1.2 .264 .322 .400 -.092 .263 .319 .403 .247 7.5 124-C -9 3.0
75o 483 43 28 1 7 47 33 104 3 3 -1.0 .247 .301 .365 -.188 .247 .298 .368 .227 -3.9 114-C -9 1.8
60o 453 35 25 1 6 42 28 99 3 2 -0.9 .236 .287 .344 -.248 .236 .285 .347 .214 -9.9 107-C -8 1.2
50o 440 32 24 1 5 40 27 97 3 2 -0.9 .232 .282 .335 -.272 .232 .280 .338 .209 -12.1 104-C -8 0.9
40o 414 27 21 1 4 36 23 92 3 2 -0.8 .224 .271 .319 -.319 .224 .269 .321 .198 -15.9 99-C -8 0.5
25o 367 20 17 1 3 29 18 84 2 2 -0.7 .210 .253 .290 -.398 .210 .251 .292 .177 -20.8 88-C -7 -0.2
10o 315 13 13 1 2 23 14 74 2 1 -0.5 .197 .236 .264 -.472 .197 .234 .266 .155 -23.3 76-C -6 -0.7
Weighted Mean 413 28 22 1 5 37 24 91 3 2 -0.8 .228 .277 .328 -.293 .228 .275 .330 .204 -9.9 98-C -7 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

20%

40%

42%

15%

1.19

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 22) 413 28 22 1 5 37 24 91 3 2 -0.8 .228 .277 .328 -.293 .228 .275 .330 .204 -9.9 98-C -7 1.0
2009 (age 23) 447 37 25 1 6 44 30 93 3 3 -0.7 .242 .294 .357 -.216 .238 .287 .353 .221 -5.1 106-C -7 1.2
2010 (age 24) 396 32 22 1 7 39 28 78 3 2 -0.6 .244 .299 .368 -.191 .240 .292 .364 .227 -2.3 95-C -7 1.0
2011 (age 25) 419 36 24 1 8 43 28 83 3 2 -0.5 .250 .301 .380 -.165 .246 .294 .376 .231 -0.6 100-C -9 0.9
2012 (age 26) 458 44 25 2 10 49 32 88 4 3 -0.4 .254 .308 .395 -.132 .250 .301 .390 .238 0.9 108-C -10 0.8
2013 (age 27) 296 23 18 1 6 32 19 51 2 1 -0.3 .262 .308 .404 -.112 .258 .301 .400 .241 1.3 72-C -7 0.7
2014 (age 28) 309 24 18 1 7 34 21 55 2 2 -0.3 .257 .309 .400 -.119 .253 .302 .396 .240 1.0 75-C -8 0.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .244 .295 .354
vs RHP .224 .271 .316
Split +.020 +.024 +.038
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.8 1.8 1.0 $1,000,000 -10.8 0.2
2009 -0.2 1.4 1.2 $1,325,000 -5.4 1.5
2010 0.0 1.0 1.0 $1,200,000 -2.8 1.6
2011 0.1 0.8 0.9 $1,125,000 -2.3 1.8
2012 0.2 0.6 0.8 $1,100,000 0.0 0.9
2013 0.2 0.5 0.7 $1,075,000 0.6 1.9
2014 0.1 0.5 0.6 $1,000,000 0.1 0.5
Peak 5.6 $3,675,000 0.6 8.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .227 .209 .177 .204
2009 .239 .223 .201 .221
2010 .249 .226 .202 .227
2011 .245 .224 .207 .231
2012 .263 .240 .199 .238
2013 .250 .232 .216 .241
2014 .254 .239 .216 .240


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 15% 0% 20%
2009 30% 17% 32%
2010 45% 30% 36%
2011 58% 38% 36%
2012 67% 54% 38%
2013 77% 60% 36%
2014 76% 63% 36%

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