Warner Madrigal

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	ANG	0R	2	1	5	12	0	12.2	11	3	13	0	64%	.355	-24	1.15	3.69	6.67	7.20	11.7	5.4	4.5	0.9	-1.8		-0.1
2007	CDR	1B	5	4	20	54	0	61.0	44	23	75	3	56%	.293	-17	1.10	2.07	5.99	5.37	9.0	6.6	6.2	1.4	1.3		1.7

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 11:41 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	4	2	40	5	73.0	71	43	54	7	49%	.292	-1	1.56	4.19	4.63	4.07	8.3	4.8	6.1	0.8	11.7	1.2	1.9
75^o	4	4	1	38	5	69.7	71	44	51	7	48%	.299	-5	1.65	4.79	5.12	4.66	8.8	5.1	6.0	0.9	6.1	0.7	1.4
60^o	3	4	1	37	5	67.0	72	45	48	8	48%	.306	-8	1.73	5.31	5.54	5.16	9.2	5.4	5.9	1.0	1.6	0.3	0.9
50^o	3	4	1	36	4	64.0	72	45	45	8	48%	.313	-12	1.83	5.92	6.04	5.75	9.6	5.7	5.8	1.2	-3.1	-0.1	0.4
40^o	3	4	0	35	4	61.3	71	46	42	9	48%	.319	-15	1.91	6.43	6.46	6.25	10.0	6.0	5.7	1.3	-6.7	-0.5	0.1
25^o	2	4	0	33	4	56.0	71	46	37	10	47%	.332	-23	2.08	7.54	7.40	7.32	10.8	6.6	5.5	1.5	-13.6	-1.1	-0.6
10^o	1	3	0	28	4	46.7	68	46	29	11	46%	.357	-37	2.43	9.74	9.32	9.41	12.5	7.9	5.1	2.0	-23.4	-1.9	-1.6
Weighted Mean	3	4	1	35	4	62.0	70	44	44	8	48%	.314	-13	1.84	6.00	6.09	5.84	9.7	5.8	5.8	1.2	-3.6	-0.2	0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
22%	46%	29%	8%	1.16

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 24)	3	4	1	35	4	62.0	70	44	44	8	48%	.314	-13	1.84	6.00	6.09	5.84	9.7	5.8	5.8	1.2	-3.6	-0.2	0.5
2009 (age 25)	3	4	1	34	5	62.0	72	43	44	7	47%	.323	-13	1.84	6.15	6.01	6.01	9.9	5.6	5.8	1.1	-3.7	-0.3	0.3
2010 (age 26)	3	4	1	35	5	63.7	73	43	43	7	47%	.320	-13	1.80	5.87	5.77	5.75	9.8	5.4	5.6	0.9	-2.0	-0.1	0.3
2011 (age 27)	3	4	1	36	5	67.0	73	42	45	7	49%	.309	-10	1.71	5.41	5.32	5.32	9.3	5.1	5.5	0.9	0.2	0.2	0.4
2012 (age 28)	4	4	1	39	5	73.0	74	44	51	7	49%	.298	-7	1.61	5.00	4.90	4.91	8.7	4.8	5.7	0.8	1.4	0.5	0.4
2013 (age 29)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 30)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.262	.408	.407
vs RHB	.252	.365	.359
Split	+.010	+.042	+.048
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.5	$600,000	-2.1	1.8
2009	0.3	$475,000	-2.6	1.4
2010	0.3	$550,000	-1.0	1.7
2011	0.4	$775,000	0.9	1.3
2012	0.4	$1,025,000	1.9	2.2
2013	0.4	$1,250,000	2.6	1.6
2014	0.4	$1,075,000	1.9	1.7
Peak	2.4	$1,975,000	7.3	10.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.66	5.75	7.32	5.84
2009	4.58	6.09	7.27	6.01
2010	4.43	5.06	7.57	5.75
2011	4.62	5.32	6.55	5.32
2012	3.49	5.40	7.35	4.91
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	8%	0%	22%
2009	38%	25%	13%
2010	46%	39%	17%
2011	64%	55%	14%
2012	73%	65%	16%
2013	82%	77%	17%
2014	87%	83%	14%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

55

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Emiliano Giron	1996	52		11	JULIAN VASQUEZ	1992	38
2	Juan Padilla	2001	49		12	Rick Cercy	2001	37
3	Jean Machi	2007	46		13	SILVERIO SANTAMARIA	1994	37
4	CESAR PEREZ	1994	45		14	Michael Mongiello	1992	36
5	Paul Estrada	2006	43		15	Emmanuel Ramirez	2004	36
6	Javier Mejia	1998	40		16	Dan Rios	1997	35
7	Kevin Frederick	2001	40		17	Chris Reinike	2001	35
8	Jose Rodriguez	2006	40		18	Victor Zambrano	1999	35
9	Beltran Perez	2006	38		19	Rodney Stevenson	1998	35
10	Rafael Chaves	1993	38		20	Eddie Oropesa	1996	35

Player Comments

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Warner Madrigal played in the outfield to start the year, but the Angels made him a pitcher and he flashed 97 MPH on the speed gun.

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