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He's probably very handsome. Trystan Magnuson
Toronto Blue Jays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 23
6' 7"
194 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/19/08 3:28 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 4 5 0 43 7 86.7 82 48 46 8 49% .266 -12 1.50 4.98 4.13 4.95 8.1 4.6 4.2 0.8 5.4 0.7 1.4
75o 3 5 0 41 6 79.0 86 56 41 10 48% .290 -22 1.79 6.43 5.61 6.30 9.3 5.8 4.1 1.1 -8.2 -0.5 0.0
60o 2 5 0 39 6 72.0 88 62 37 12 48% .312 -32 2.08 7.87 7.10 7.61 10.6 7.0 4.0 1.5 -19.2 -1.5 -1.0
50o 2 5 0 38 6 67.0 90 66 34 13 48% .329 -40 2.32 8.96 8.36 8.57 11.6 8.1 3.9 1.8 -25.8 -2.1 -1.6
40o 2 5 0 37 6 58.7 94 73 28 16 48% .363 -57 2.84 10.69 11.10 9.95 13.8 10.3 3.8 2.4 -32.6 -2.7 -2.3
25o 1 3 0 32 5 34.7 104 94 13 22 48% .499 -140 5.68 16.09 25.53 14.19 25.9 22.2 3.0 5.7 -37.5 -3.3 -3.1
10o 5 52 22 27 5 426.0 -935 -1352 609 -391 47% -.349 #NUM! -5.37 -151.15 #NUM! 19.07 0.0 -26.1 11.2 0.0 -715.5 -76.7 -43.8
Weighted Mean 2 4 0 32 5 57.3 74 52 29 10 48% .319 -36 2.19 8.37 7.66 8.05 11.0 7.5 4.0 1.6 -20.0 -1.5 -1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

0%

0%

0%

0%

1.69

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 23) 2 4 0 32 5 57.3 74 52 29 10 48% .319 -36 2.19 8.37 7.66 8.05 11.0 7.5 4.0 1.6 -20.0 -1.5 -1.0
2009 (age 24) 3 5 0 41 6 76.0 91 53 35 13 48% .299 -30 1.89 6.95 6.49 6.67 10.3 5.7 3.6 1.6 -8.0 -0.8 -0.1
2010 (age 25) 2 4 0 39 4 67.0 85 42 34 11 48% .321 -26 1.89 7.26 6.52 7.00 10.9 5.1 4.0 1.4 -8.1 -1.0 -0.2
2011 (age 26) 2 4 0 38 3 63.7 78 36 30 9 49% .310 -24 1.78 6.50 5.90 6.30 10.5 4.7 3.7 1.3 -2.6 -0.5 0.1
2012 (age 27)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 28)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .269 .373 .434
vs RHB .260 .339 .395
Split +.009 +.034 +.039
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 -1.0 $400,000 -18.7 0.1
2009 0.0 $400,000 -7.2 1.1
2010 -0.2 $400,000 -7.4 0.1
2011 0.1 $400,000 -2.2 0.4
2012 0.0 $400,000 -1.9 0.1
2013 0.0 $400,000 -0.8 0.1
2014 0.0 $400,000 -0.2 0.1
Peak 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 6.30 8.57 14.19 8.05
2009 5.44 6.89 8.89 6.67
2010 5.79 7.12 9.06 7.00
2011 5.61 6.65 8.74 6.30
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 N/A 0% N/A
2009 67% 33% 6%
2010 74% 46% 3%
2011 87% 61% 8%
2012 96% 76% 3%
2013 97% 85% 2%
2014 97% 95% 2%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

18

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Brad Blumenstock 1998 46 11 Mike Ferry 1992 29
2 Eddy Reyes 1999 38 12 Kevin Joseph 1999 29
3 Jeff Williams 1992 37 13 Brett Harker 2007 28
4 Steve Long 1992 36 14 Nate Moore 2006 26
5 Kyle Gross 2002 35 15 Paul Henry 2004 26
6 Ryan Brannan 1998 33 16 Esteban Maldonado 1998 25
7 Mike Gunderson 1996 30 17 JASON ANGEL 1994 20
8 Keith Linebarger 1994 30 18 Anthony Pearson 2004 20
9 Jon Steitz 2003 30 19 Mike Billek 2007 19
10 Kyle Bono 2006 30 20 STEVEN WILKERSON 1995 19

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