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He's probably very handsome. Jeff Manship
Minnesota Twins [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 23
6'
165 lbs.
Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 TWI OR 0 0 0 2 0 5.0 3 1 10 0 60% .300 34 0.80 0.00 1.29 0.00 7.2 3.6 9.0 0.0 3.1 0.2
2006 FTM 1C 0 0 0 4 3 8.0 7 2 12 0 68% .333 14 1.13 2.25 4.26 5.40 8.6 3.2 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.1
2007 BLT 1B 7 1 0 13 13 77.7 51 9 77 4 59% .241 5 0.77 1.51 4.63 3.95 8.0 2.8 4.7 1.3 12.5 2.3
2007 FTM 1C 8 5 0 13 13 71.3 77 25 59 5 49% .326 -10 1.43 3.16 6.91 6.75 11.3 4.7 4.7 1.4 -8.3 0.1


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/17/08 11:46 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 9 11 0 28 28 169.3 178 70 106 18 49% .296 7 1.47 4.36 4.68 4.30 9.2 3.4 4.9 0.9 21.3 3.4 4.0
75o 8 11 0 27 27 157.0 176 70 96 19 49% .306 3 1.57 5.03 5.22 4.98 9.8 3.7 4.8 1.1 6.5 1.9 2.5
60o 6 12 0 26 26 147.3 173 70 88 19 49% .315 -1 1.65 5.61 5.68 5.56 10.2 3.9 4.7 1.2 -4.4 0.7 1.3
50o 6 12 0 26 26 142.7 172 70 84 19 49% .319 -2 1.69 5.89 5.90 5.84 10.5 4.0 4.7 1.2 -9.2 0.2 0.8
40o 5 12 0 25 25 136.7 169 69 80 19 49% .325 -5 1.74 6.25 6.20 6.21 10.8 4.2 4.6 1.3 -15.0 -0.4 0.2
25o 4 11 0 31 22 122.3 163 68 69 19 49% .337 -14 1.88 7.16 6.94 7.12 11.6 4.5 4.5 1.4 -27.2 -1.8 -1.1
10o 2 10 0 27 18 95.3 145 62 50 19 49% .362 -26 2.16 9.03 8.48 8.97 13.2 5.3 4.1 1.8 -43.0 -3.5 -3.0
Weighted Mean 6 12 0 27 27 148.7 179 73 88 20 49% .319 -2 1.69 5.90 5.90 5.86 10.5 4.0 4.7 1.2 -9.1 0.2 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

8%

32%

35%

14%

1.34

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 23) 6 12 0 27 27 148.7 179 73 88 20 49% .319 -2 1.69 5.90 5.90 5.86 10.5 4.0 4.7 1.2 -9.1 0.2 1.0
2009 (age 24) 6 10 0 40 19 130.3 153 58 79 17 49% .317 -8 1.63 5.56 5.60 5.52 10.3 3.7 4.8 1.2 -2.8 0.5 1.3
2010 (age 25) 5 9 1 38 17 120.3 136 50 75 14 49% .309 -6 1.55 5.56 5.18 5.58 9.8 3.4 4.9 1.1 -3.0 0.3 1.0
2011 (age 26) 4 8 0 36 13 99.0 125 44 56 11 50% .333 -12 1.71 5.94 5.91 5.93 11.0 3.7 4.5 1.0 -5.8 -0.2 0.5
2012 (age 27) 5 8 1 39 14 111.7 129 41 66 13 50% .313 -6 1.52 5.36 5.14 5.36 10.1 3.0 4.7 1.0 -0.4 0.5 0.9
2013 (age 28) 3 6 1 35 9 82.3 99 32 49 10 50% .319 -9 1.58 5.54 5.42 5.52 10.4 3.2 4.7 1.1 -1.3 0.1 0.6
2014 (age 29) 2 4 0 22 5 51.0 60 19 31 6 50% .317 -7 1.54 5.26 5.24 5.24 10.2 3.0 4.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .278 .382 .446
vs RHB .277 .361 .411
Split +.001 +.022 +.035
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.0 $1,075,000 -5.2 4.7
2009 1.3 $1,500,000 0.4 8.0
2010 1.0 $1,175,000 -0.4 4.9
2011 0.5 $700,000 -3.5 3.0
2012 0.9 $1,475,000 1.5 5.1
2013 0.6 $875,000 0.2 3.1
2014 0.6 $1,275,000 1.6 2.6
Peak 5.3 $3,750,000 3.5 28.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.98 5.84 7.12 5.86
2009 4.63 5.79 6.66 5.52
2010 4.46 5.39 6.98 5.58
2011 4.71 5.71 7.91 5.93
2012 4.23 5.57 7.13 5.36
2013 4.80 6.01 7.16 5.52
2014 4.41 5.48 7.39 5.24


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 14% 0% 8%
2009 26% 6% 15%
2010 33% 16% 13%
2011 47% 22% 11%
2012 59% 40% 15%
2013 67% 49% 7%
2014 79% 59% 5%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

64

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Terric McFarlin 1992 58 11 STEVEN WOLF 1992 49
2 Reynol Mendoza 1994 55 12 Ryan Vandeweg 1997 48
3 Kyle Yates 2006 55 13 Marc Valdes 1995 48
4 Jose Mieses 2001 53 14 Wascar Serrano 2000 47
5 Jose Prado 1995 52 15 Paul Menhart 1992 47
6 Mitch Talbot 2007 52 16 David Hooten 1998 47
7 Eric Ireland 2000 50 17 Eric Thompson 2001 47
8 Josh Fogg 2000 50 18 Richie Gardner 2005 46
9 Joe Mays 1999 50 19 Marty Janzen 1996 45
10 Ramiro Mendoza 1995 49 20 Tip Fairchild 2007 45

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