Lou Marson

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 1:37 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	514	71	29	2	14	57	57	110	5	2	-0.5	.267	.354	.430	.005	.263	.351	.421	.267	19.6	121-C 1	4.9
75^o	477	56	25	1	11	49	48	103	5	2	-0.5	.253	.333	.395	-.087	.249	.331	.386	.249	8.1	113-C 2	3.8
60^o	455	49	22	1	9	44	43	99	4	2	-0.4	.245	.322	.375	-.139	.241	.319	.367	.239	2.3	108-C 2	3.2
50^o	441	45	21	1	8	41	40	97	4	2	-0.4	.240	.314	.363	-.172	.236	.312	.355	.232	-1.1	105-C 2	2.8
40^o	432	43	20	1	8	40	39	95	4	2	-0.4	.237	.310	.356	-.190	.233	.308	.348	.228	-2.9	103-C 2	2.6
25^o	388	32	17	1	5	32	31	87	3	2	-0.3	.223	.289	.321	-.284	.220	.287	.314	.206	-11.0	93-C 3	1.7
10^o	347	24	13	1	3	25	24	79	2	1	-0.3	.212	.270	.292	-.363	.208	.268	.286	.186	-16.1	84-C 3	1.0
Weighted Mean	463	49	22	1	9	44	43	102	4	2	-0.4	.241	.316	.366	-.163	.238	.314	.358	.233	2.5	110-C 2	2.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
44%	67%	16%	11%	1.09

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 22)	463	49	22	1	9	44	43	102	4	2	-0.4	.241	.316	.366	-.163	.238	.314	.358	.233	2.5	110-C 2	2.9
2009 (age 23)	444	47	22	1	9	45	38	93	4	2	-0.4	.248	.317	.382	-.137	.240	.310	.366	.237	2.3	105-C 2	2.8
2010 (age 24)	433	46	20	1	10	43	37	87	4	2	-0.4	.252	.320	.384	-.126	.244	.313	.369	.239	3.0	103-C 2	2.6
2011 (age 25)	363	36	17	1	8	37	32	75	3	1	-0.3	.248	.317	.383	-.134	.240	.310	.368	.238	1.7	87-C 0	1.9
2012 (age 26)	364	37	17	1	8	37	34	76	3	1	-0.3	.248	.323	.383	-.124	.240	.315	.368	.240	2.0	87-C 0	1.6
2013 (age 27)	354	36	15	1	9	39	32	71	3	1	-0.2	.254	.323	.402	-.093	.246	.316	.386	.246	3.1	85-C -1	1.4
2014 (age 28)	364	37	19	1	8	38	31	69	3	1	-0.2	.256	.323	.399	-.098	.248	.316	.383	.244	2.2	87-C 0	1.4

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.257	.336	.391
vs RHP	.237	.308	.352
Split	+.021	+.028	+.039
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.2	2.7	2.9	$4,000,000	2.3	4.3
2009	0.4	2.5	2.8	$4,125,000	1.9	5.6
2010	0.4	2.2	2.6	$3,925,000	2.0	7.1
2011	0.3	1.6	1.9	$2,600,000	0.2	5.3
2012	0.3	1.3	1.6	$2,400,000	0.4	5.2
2013	0.4	1.1	1.4	$2,375,000	1.4	4.5
2014	0.3	1.1	1.4	$2,650,000	2.3	2.5
Peak			13.2	$14,600,000	8.5	32.1

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.249	.232	.206	.233
2009	.262	.236	.221	.237
2010	.259	.239	.224	.239
2011	.259	.245	.226	.238
2012	.269	.249	.222	.240
2013	.267	.248	.225	.246
2014	.260	.252	.233	.244

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	11%	0%	44%
2009	11%	3%	45%
2010	20%	9%	44%
2011	44%	22%	48%
2012	52%	33%	49%
2013	62%	44%	47%
2014	72%	57%	45%

Player Comments

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2007

Another contender, along with Jaramillo and Ruiz, for future Philly catching jobs, Marson only converted to catcher after being drafted--his best high school position was quarterback, but an injury cost him his chance at gridiron glory. Marson made a dramatic improvement in his K/BB ratio within the season, from 52:19 in the first half to 28:29 in the second, and, with that, he gained in average (from .210 to .267) and power (from .276 to .428). It`s that second-half kick that puts him on the radar.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	BAT	1A	252	25	11	3	5	25	27	52	0	1	-0.9	.245	.329	.391	.042	.183	.244	.274	.173	-37.2	55-C -6	-0.4
2006	LWD	1B	410	44	16	5	4	39	49	82	4	0	-2.1	.243	.343	.351	.040	.202	.280	.295	.204	-21.1	100-C 10	2.7
2007	CLR	1C	457	68	24	1	7	63	52	80	3	1	-0.1	.288	.373	.407	.124	.249	.327	.363	.246	3.3	106-C 4	3.8

Historical Stats