J.D. Martin

<< PECOTA Home

Player Search

');// -->

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 11:53 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	6	5	0	23	14	90.3	91	34	49	9	47%	.279	-1	1.39	3.96	4.07	3.99	8.7	3.1	4.3	0.9	17.5	2.3	2.5
75^o	5	5	0	22	13	84.3	91	33	45	10	47%	.290	-4	1.47	4.69	4.59	4.70	9.3	3.2	4.3	1.0	8.9	1.4	1.7
60^o	4	5	0	22	13	79.7	90	33	42	10	47%	.298	-7	1.54	5.26	5.00	5.25	9.7	3.3	4.3	1.2	3.0	0.8	1.0
50^o	4	5	0	21	12	75.0	89	32	40	11	47%	.307	-10	1.61	5.85	5.43	5.81	10.2	3.4	4.2	1.3	-2.4	0.2	0.5
40^o	3	5	0	21	11	68.7	87	31	36	12	47%	.318	-14	1.71	6.69	6.04	6.62	10.9	3.6	4.2	1.5	-9.0	-0.4	-0.2
25^o	2	5	0	19	10	59.0	82	28	31	12	47%	.335	-20	1.86	8.00	6.98	7.87	12.0	3.9	4.2	1.8	-16.9	-1.3	-1.1
10^o	1	3	0	13	6	35.3	57	19	18	9	47%	.365	-34	2.14	11.73	8.73	11.63	13.9	4.4	4.1	2.3	-26.5	-2.3	-2.2
Weighted Mean	3	4	0	17	9	56.0	63	23	30	7	47%	.297	-8	1.53	5.22	4.95	5.21	9.7	3.3	4.3	1.2	2.9	0.6	1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
7%	29%	44%	47%	1.13

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 25)	3	4	0	17	9	56.0	63	23	30	7	47%	.297	-8	1.53	5.22	4.95	5.21	9.7	3.3	4.3	1.2	2.9	0.6	1.0
2009 (age 26)	5	5	0	27	12	84.3	92	33	45	11	48%	.289	-9	1.48	5.00	4.77	5.00	9.4	3.2	4.3	1.2	5.0	1.0	1.3
2010 (age 27)	4	5	0	26	11	79.3	90	30	42	11	44%	.299	-10	1.51	5.30	4.94	5.27	9.8	3.0	4.2	1.2	2.3	0.7	0.9
2011 (age 28)	4	4	0	23	8	64.3	70	23	36	8	47%	.292	-7	1.45	4.76	4.55	4.77	9.3	2.9	4.5	1.1	5.8	0.9	1.2
2012 (age 29)	4	4	1	28	9	76.7	81	27	45	10	47%	.285	-6	1.41	4.50	4.40	4.50	9.1	2.9	4.7	1.2	7.1	1.3	1.3
2013 (age 30)	4	4	1	28	7	67.7	74	24	42	8	48%	.301	-5	1.45	4.64	4.55	4.63	9.5	2.8	5.0	1.1	5.6	1.0	1.0
2014 (age 31)	3	3	0	22	5	53.0	56	19	32	7	47%	.290	-5	1.42	4.52	4.37	4.53	9.1	2.9	4.9	1.1	5.3	0.8	0.9

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.274	.376	.458
vs RHB	.275	.351	.419
Split	-.001	+.025	+.039
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.0	$1,500,000	2.9	5.2
2009	1.3	$2,200,000	5.0	6.1
2010	0.9	$1,500,000	2.4	4.7
2011	1.2	$2,550,000	5.8	7.2
2012	1.3	$3,075,000	7.1	8.0
2013	1.0	$2,625,000	5.5	5.4
2014	0.9	$2,575,000	5.2	5.5
Peak	6.7	$9,200,000	25.9	36.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.70	5.81	7.87	5.21
2009	4.46	5.21	6.34	5.00
2010	4.46	5.47	6.62	5.27
2011	3.79	4.95	6.76	4.77
2012	3.68	4.81	6.70	4.50
2013	4.11	4.82	6.90	4.63
2014	4.18	5.18	7.03	4.53

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	47%	0%	7%
2009	40%	23%	14%
2010	42%	25%	9%
2011	58%	30%	20%
2012	61%	43%	17%
2013	62%	51%	9%
2014	69%	56%	7%

50

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Mike Brown	1984	45		11	Mark Clark	1993	37
2	Tom Hausman	1978	43		12	Bryan Rekar	1997	37
3	Glenn Abbott	1976	42		13	Mike Williams	1995	36
4	Tim Stauffer	2007	42		14	Bronson Arroyo	2002	36
5	Allen Levrault	2003	40		15	Ben Hendrickson	2006	36
6	Al Fitzmorris	1971	39		16	Shawn Boskie	1992	34
7	Mike Morgan	1985	39		17	Joe Slusarski	1992	33
8	Mike Thurman	1999	39		18	George Susce	1957	33
9	Joe Nathan	2000	38		19	Craig Anderson	1963	32
10	Jesse Jefferson	1974	37		20	Brian Williams	1994	32

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Just when he seemed to be emerging as a prospect, J.D. Martin succumbed to Tommy John surgery. He looked good in his late-season return, so keep an eye on this one--he was on the verge of a big league look as a starter.

2005

A supplemental first-round pick in 2001 (for the loss of Manny Ramirez), Martin looked like money in the bank after his first two seasons. A strained elbow ligament put a damper on the fun: Though he avoided the surgeon's knife, it sure looked like there was some hangover in 2004 as his strikeout rate failed to recover. Martin doesn't throw hard, so everything has to be in sync for him pitch effectively. It could happen, sure. "An optimist is a guy who has never had much experience."

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	AKR	2A	3	1	0	10	10	56.7	42	8	63	3	49%	.273	19	0.88	2.38	4.04	4.06	8.5	2.1	6.5	0.9	8.7		1.5
2006	MHV	1A	0	1	0	6	6	18.1	11	1	13	1	50%	.196	-20	0.66	1.49	5.20	3.94	8.4	2.2	2.8	2.2	3.0		0.4
2006	LKC	1B	0	1	0	5	5	15.0	13	3	16	2	45%	.306	-20	1.07	4.20	9.05	7.82	11.4	3.6	5.7	2.8	-3.1		-0.1
2006	KIN	1C	1	0	0	3	2	11.1	6	1	11	0	42%	.212	26	0.63	0.00	0.47	0.00	6.1	1.7	6.1	0.0	6.4		0.7
2007	AKR	2A	2	3	0	9	9	42.3	42	16	23	4	50%	.281	-17	1.37	4.26	5.65	5.80	9.6	4.0	3.1	1.3	-0.9		0.6

Historical Stats