Justin Masterson

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 11:59 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	12	8	0	28	28	173.7	178	58	100	11	56%	.294	12	1.36	3.77	3.75	3.79	8.6	2.8	4.8	0.6	37.2	5.0	5.1
75^o	10	9	0	27	27	162.3	178	60	90	13	56%	.305	8	1.46	4.50	4.30	4.50	9.2	3.0	4.6	0.7	20.5	3.3	3.5
60^o	9	9	0	27	27	155.3	177	61	84	14	56%	.311	5	1.53	4.97	4.65	4.96	9.6	3.2	4.5	0.8	10.7	2.3	2.5
50^o	8	10	0	26	26	150.3	177	61	80	14	56%	.316	2	1.58	5.33	4.92	5.31	9.9	3.3	4.4	0.8	4.0	1.6	1.8
40^o	7	10	0	26	26	144.7	176	61	75	15	56%	.322	0	1.64	5.75	5.24	5.71	10.3	3.5	4.3	0.9	-3.4	0.8	1.1
25^o	6	11	0	25	25	133.3	173	61	66	16	56%	.333	-6	1.76	6.59	5.88	6.53	11.0	3.8	4.1	1.0	-16.5	-0.6	-0.3
10^o	3	10	0	22	22	105.7	161	59	45	17	56%	.361	-20	2.09	8.88	7.66	8.72	12.9	4.6	3.5	1.4	-41.7	-3.3	-3.0
Weighted Mean	8	10	0	27	27	154.7	184	63	82	15	56%	.318	2	1.60	5.46	5.01	5.44	10.0	3.4	4.4	0.9	1.5	1.4	1.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
28%	58%	18%	7%	1.52

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 23)	8	10	0	27	27	154.7	184	63	82	15	56%	.318	2	1.60	5.46	5.01	5.44	10.0	3.4	4.4	0.9	1.5	1.4	1.8
2009 (age 24)	8	9	0	37	21	140.7	166	53	76	14	56%	.318	-4	1.56	5.29	4.86	5.27	10.0	3.1	4.5	0.8	3.9	1.3	1.8
2010 (age 25)	6	8	0	34	17	117.7	136	46	66	11	56%	.316	-4	1.55	5.37	4.74	5.38	9.8	3.2	4.6	0.8	1.7	0.9	1.3
2011 (age 26)	6	7	0	38	16	116.7	140	41	62	9	58%	.326	-4	1.55	5.13	4.72	5.14	10.2	2.9	4.4	0.7	4.7	1.2	1.6
2012 (age 27)	6	7	1	39	15	115.7	136	36	68	9	58%	.325	-1	1.49	5.00	4.51	5.02	9.9	2.6	4.8	0.7	5.6	1.3	1.6
2013 (age 28)	5	5	1	37	10	91.7	106	28	52	7	57%	.320	-3	1.46	4.79	4.37	4.81	9.8	2.5	4.7	0.7	7.0	1.1	1.6
2014 (age 29)	4	3	1	26	6	62.0	70	18	34	4	58%	.313	-3	1.43	4.52	4.15	4.55	9.6	2.4	4.5	0.6	7.9	0.9	1.5

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.296	.391	.447
vs RHB	.273	.347	.387
Split	+.023	+.043	+.059
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.8	$2,325,000	2.3	10.3
2009	1.8	$2,800,000	4.4	9.0
2010	1.3	$1,950,000	2.2	7.2
2011	1.6	$2,950,000	5.1	8.7
2012	1.6	$3,350,000	6.0	9.0
2013	1.6	$3,850,000	7.3	8.6
2014	1.5	$4,150,000	8.1	5.0
Peak	9.6	$12,500,000	32.4	52.9

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.50	5.31	6.53	5.44
2009	4.50	5.41	6.06	5.27
2010	4.31	5.55	6.84	5.38
2011	4.01	5.60	6.66	5.14
2012	4.19	5.54	7.01	5.02
2013	3.89	5.18	7.26	4.81
2014	3.92	4.46	5.64	4.55

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	7%	0%	28%
2009	20%	4%	25%
2010	34%	12%	24%
2011	35%	17%	22%
2012	48%	24%	27%
2013	55%	35%	23%
2014	69%	48%	26%

49

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Nate Minchey	1992	45		11	Tim Dillard	2006	35
2	Richie Gardner	2005	43		12	Brad Rigby	1996	34
3	Chris Reitsma	2001	40		13	Jim Johnson	2006	34
4	Sean Bergman	1993	40		14	Chris Holt	1994	34
5	Brandon Webb	2002	39		15	Kennie Steenstra	1994	33
6	Sergio Mitre	2004	38		16	Mitch Talbot	2007	32
7	Garrett Mock	2006	38		17	Mark Johnson	1998	32
8	Kameron Loe	2004	36		18	Greg Wooten	1997	32
9	Billy Traber	2002	36		19	Zach Jackson	2006	32
10	Matt McClendon	2001	36		20	John Lackey	2002	32

Player Comments

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2007

The 71st pick in the 2006 draft, this behemoth came to the team`s attention a closer in the Cape Cod League in 2005. Having already thrown 116 innings prior to the draft, he worked out of the bullpen in Lowell. Adding a few MPH to a low-90s two-seam fastball that he continued to located very well, he made mincemeat out of opposing hitters, holding them to a .174/.208/.200 showing. The Sox will move him back into the rotation in 2007; the development of his secondary pitches will determine if he stays there.

Historical Stats