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He's probably very handsome. Lucas May
Los Angeles Dodgers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 23
6'
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 CGA 1B 416 46 14 2 9 53 16 92 5 2 0.9 .229 .267 .345 -.173 .180 .207 .261 .150 -42.6 46-SS -8 -2.1
2006 CGA 1B 497 76 27 9 18 82 35 130 14 2 0.7 .273 .332 .493 .199 .220 .266 .393 .228 -25.2 48-LF -4 1.3
2007 SBR 1C 554 81 25 3 25 89 36 107 5 7 -2.4 .256 .313 .465 .044 .210 .256 .366 .210 -19.9 76-C -6 0.3


EQA Distribution
Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

 (projection generated 3/18/08 1:48 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 584 66 30 2 21 76 37 138 7 3 0.1 .246 .300 .431 -.103 .244 .297 .435 .246 5.4 137-C -15 2.8
75o 553 56 27 2 18 68 33 135 6 3 0.1 .233 .285 .400 -.179 .232 .283 .404 .231 -4.6 130-C -15 1.8
60o 534 50 25 2 16 63 31 133 6 3 0.1 .226 .276 .382 -.224 .224 .274 .385 .222 -10.1 125-C -14 1.3
50o 509 43 23 2 13 57 28 130 6 3 0.1 .217 .265 .359 -.279 .216 .263 .363 .210 -16.2 120-C -14 0.6
40o 489 38 21 2 12 52 26 127 5 3 0.1 .211 .257 .342 -.321 .209 .255 .346 .200 -20.3 115-C -14 0.2
25o 467 33 20 2 10 48 24 123 5 3 0.1 .204 .248 .324 -.366 .202 .246 .327 .190 -24.2 110-C -13 -0.3
10o 427 26 17 1 7 39 20 117 4 2 0.1 .192 .234 .295 -.437 .191 .232 .298 .170 -29.2 102-C -12 -0.9
Weighted Mean 552 50 25 2 15 64 31 139 6 3 0.1 .220 .269 .367 -.261 .219 .267 .370 .214 -11.0 130-C -15 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

38%

55%

24%

13%

1.07

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 23) 552 50 25 2 15 64 31 139 6 3 0.1 .220 .269 .367 -.261 .219 .267 .370 .214 -11.0 130-C -15 1.0
2009 (age 24) 561 56 27 2 17 68 32 132 6 3 0.1 .233 .282 .395 -.191 .228 .276 .391 .228 -4.9 132-C -14 1.4
2010 (age 25) 526 52 26 2 16 64 31 120 6 3 0.1 .236 .287 .395 -.180 .231 .281 .392 .230 -3.0 124-C -14 1.0
2011 (age 26) 529 56 25 2 18 69 32 121 6 3 0.0 .245 .296 .419 -.126 .239 .289 .415 .241 0.9 125-C -17 0.9
2012 (age 27) 551 63 28 2 21 74 35 119 7 3 0.0 .251 .303 .440 -.081 .246 .296 .436 .250 2.5 129-C -16 0.8
2013 (age 28)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 29)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .236 .289 .395
vs RHP .216 .262 .351
Split +.020 +.026 +.044
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 -0.7 1.6 1.0 $1,050,000 -16.2 0.6
2009 0.0 1.4 1.4 $1,550,000 -8.3 1.1
2010 0.1 1.0 1.0 $1,225,000 -6.8 0.5
2011 0.3 0.6 0.9 $1,100,000 -2.8 0.7
2012 0.4 0.4 0.8 $1,100,000 0.0 1.4
2013 0.3 0.3 0.6 $1,025,000 0.6 0.9
2014 0.3 0.4 0.7 $1,100,000 0.4 1.0
Peak 5.7 $3,875,000 0.6 5.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart
Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .231 .210 .190 .214
2009 .250 .231 .210 .228
2010 .249 .234 .213 .230
2011 .264 .234 .209 .241
2012 .273 .251 .228 .250
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 13% 0% 38%
2009 25% 16% 45%
2010 42% 27% 53%
2011 66% 45% 50%
2012 71% 63% 49%
2013 81% 75% 40%
2014 84% 77% 36%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

63

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Giuseppe Chiaramonte 1992 40 11 Brett Carroll 2003 33
2 Matt Carson 1979 36 12 George Arias 1971 33
3 Bryan Bogle 1981 36 13 Scott Chapman 1982 33
4 Mike Coolbaugh 1970 36 14 Luke Grayson 1960 33
5 Chris Aguila 1973 35 15 Lorenzo Delacruz 2007 32
6 Brandon Inge 1992 35 16 Johnny Isom 1975 32
7 Shawn Gallagher 1975 34 17 Adam Heether 1969 32
8 Jamar Hill 1975 34 18 Ryan Frith 2000 31
9 Francisco Caraballo 1957 34 19 Harvey Hargrove 1979 30
10 Eric Cole 1998 33 20 Jeff Allen 2005 30

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