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John Mayberry
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Left Field
Bats R
Age 25
6' 6"
230 lbs.

Player Profile

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
RF 6 John Mayberry 5 11 .231 1 0 1 0 .297 .427 -0.1
1   2009 Total 5 11 .231 1 0 1 0 .297 .427 -0.1

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 CLN A 533 77 26 4 21 77 59 117 9 3 -0.6 .268 .358 .479 -.298 .198 .268 .347 .215 -28.5 90-RF -12 25-LF 7 -2.5
2007 BAK A+ 277 47 15 1 16 45 28 64 9 1 2.3 .230 .314 .496 -.376 .166 .232 .352 .199 -20.6 58-RF -3 -1.9
2007 FRI AA 271 35 10 0 14 38 20 62 7 1 2.8 .241 .307 .453 -.259 .208 .263 .380 .223 -11.3 68-RF -4 -1.2
2008 FRI AA 90 16 8 0 4 13 4 21 4 1 -0.2 .268 .322 .512 -.175 .226 .267 .429 .237 -1.4 19-RF -1 -0.2
2008 OKL AAA 475 49 30 7 16 58 30 85 6 2 -3.1 .263 .316 .474 -.191 .228 .276 .404 .233 -9.6 90-LF 10 20-RF -3 0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:23 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 531 66 28 2 23 74 43 129 8 2 -0.7 .255 .321 .465 -.002 .256 .321 .472 .269 9.1 125-LF 6 2.7
75o 497 54 25 2 19 64 37 125 7 2 -0.6 .238 .300 .424 -.105 .238 .300 .431 .250 -3.6 117-LF 4 1.2
60o 480 48 23 2 17 59 34 122 7 2 -0.6 .229 .290 .405 -.155 .229 .290 .411 .240 -9.1 114-LF 4 0.5
50o 466 44 22 2 15 55 32 120 6 2 -0.6 .222 .281 .389 -.196 .222 .282 .395 .232 -13.3 110-LF 3 0.0
40o 452 40 21 1 14 51 30 117 6 2 -0.5 .216 .274 .374 -.234 .216 .274 .380 .224 -16.9 107-LF 2 -0.5
25o 438 36 20 1 13 48 28 115 5 2 -0.5 .209 .266 .359 -.271 .210 .266 .365 .216 -20.2 104-LF 2 -0.9
10o 387 26 16 1 9 36 22 106 4 2 -0.4 .189 .241 .313 -.391 .189 .242 .318 .187 -28.7 93-LF 0 -2.1
Weighted Mean 519 52 25 2 17 63 36 133 7 2 -0.6 .224 .284 .394 -.176 .225 .284 .400 .234 -9.4 122-LF 4 0.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

41%

63%

18%

12%

0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 25) 519 52 25 2 17 63 36 133 7 2 -0.6 .224 .284 .394 -.176 .225 .284 .400 .234 -9.4 122-LF 4 0.3
2010 (age 26) 433 39 21 1 14 53 31 114 5 2 -0.4 .216 .277 .383 -.233 .213 .273 .384 .227 -11.8 103-LF 4 0.0
2011 (age 27) 438 40 21 1 15 54 32 113 5 2 -0.3 .216 .277 .389 -.224 .213 .274 .389 .229 -9.5 104-LF 3 0.1
2012 (age 28) 430 38 19 1 14 52 29 112 5 2 -0.2 .213 .272 .379 -.247 .210 .269 .380 .224 -9.6 102-LF 2 -0.3
2013 (age 29) 385 33 18 1 13 46 27 99 4 2 -0.1 .215 .275 .381 -.239 .212 .272 .381 .226 -6.9 92-LF 3 0.0
2014 (age 30) 408 36 20 1 13 50 30 102 4 2 -0.1 .215 .275 .385 -.234 .213 .272 .385 .227 -6.0 97-LF 2 -0.2
2015 (age 31) 446 42 22 1 15 56 32 107 4 2 -0.1 .221 .282 .395 -.205 .218 .278 .396 .233 -3.7 106-LF 5 0.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .241 .304 .421
vs RHP .220 .277 .377
Split +.021 +.027 +.044
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -19.5 4.0 0.3 $400,000 -7.8 1.3
2010 -19.6 4.0 0.0 $400,000 -10.0 0.5
2011 -18.9 3.0 0.1 $400,000 -8.8 1.0
2012 -20.8 2.0 -0.3 $400,000 -10.5 0.4
2013 -18.1 3.0 0.0 $400,000 -6.7 1.7
2014 -18.6 2.0 -0.2 $400,000 -6.5 0.5
2015 -17.6 5.0 0.1 $400,000 -3.4 1.0
Peak 0.0 $375,000 0.0 5.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .250 .232 .216 .234
2010 .251 .227 .204 .227
2011 .258 .242 .210 .229
2012 .252 .239 .206 .224
2013 .265 .219 .196 .226
2014 .244 .231 .214 .227
2015 .264 .227 .210 .233


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 12% 0% 41%
2010 29% 12% 34%
2011 42% 29% 43%
2012 49% 40% 34%
2013 63% 49% 29%
2014 71% 54% 24%
2015 73% 67% 20%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

56

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Chad Mottola 1997 56 11 Tim Costo 1994 41
2 Pete Tucci 2001 50 12 Kevin Witt 2001 41
3 Troy Afenir 1989 49 13 Shon Ashley 1992 39
4 Bob Zupcic 1992 49 14 Ken Felder 1996 39
5 Mark Smith 1995 48 15 David Kelton 2005 38
6 Alan Cockrell 1988 46 16 Jim Lindeman 1987 38
7 Joe Mather 2008 45 17 Steve Hosey 1994 38
8 Jody Lansford 1986 44 18 Jose Barrios 1983 38
9 Mark Higgins 1989 42 19 J.J. Davis 2004 37
10 Brian Buchanan 1999 42 20 Danny Peoples 2000 37

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Mayberry was a surprise first-round pick in 2005, and thus far the naysayers have been right. Mayberry has tons of raw power but not much in the way of pure hitting skills, and though he's a good athlete for his size, his transition from first base to right field has been spotty. This year could be a make-or-break year for him; he'll either prove that he's a future big leaguer or be branded with the minor league slugger label.

2007

By the time Mayberry`s father was this age, he had played 281 games at Triple-A and another 105 in the majors. Mayberry has yet to play a game in High-A. If this sounds like an argument against staying in school, it really isn`t, especially if you get a Stanford education out of the deal. Mayberry initially had a rough year at Clinton, but he did have a solid second half and had an outstanding season in the in the Hawaiian Winter League (.321/.394/.548 in 84 at-bats), where he led a pitcher`s league in slugging.


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