Calvin Medlock

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 12:16 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	5	3	1	29	7	71.3	60	31	58	7	41%	.260	8	1.28	2.98	3.58	3.09	7.4	3.6	6.5	0.9	21.7	2.3	2.7
75^o	4	3	1	28	7	69.0	61	31	55	8	41%	.267	6	1.33	3.42	3.91	3.52	7.7	3.7	6.4	1.0	17.3	1.9	2.3
60^o	4	4	1	27	7	64.3	62	31	50	9	41%	.279	1	1.43	4.23	4.53	4.33	8.4	3.9	6.3	1.2	9.7	1.1	1.5
50^o	3	4	1	25	6	60.0	62	30	45	9	41%	.291	-4	1.53	5.09	5.18	5.18	9.1	4.1	6.1	1.4	2.8	0.5	0.8
40^o	3	4	0	24	6	57.3	62	30	43	10	41%	.299	-7	1.60	5.65	5.60	5.73	9.6	4.2	6.0	1.5	-1.2	0.1	0.4
25^o	2	4	0	23	6	53.3	62	29	38	10	41%	.310	-11	1.70	6.50	6.25	6.56	10.2	4.4	5.8	1.7	-6.6	-0.4	-0.1
10^o	2	4	0	21	5	46.3	61	27	32	11	41%	.328	-20	1.88	8.05	7.45	8.07	11.5	4.8	5.5	2.1	-14.5	-1.1	-0.9
Weighted Mean	3	4	1	26	7	62.7	63	31	48	9	41%	.287	-2	1.50	4.86	4.98	4.95	8.9	4.0	6.1	1.3	4.4	0.7	1.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
32%	42%	40%	18%	1.29

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 25)	3	4	1	26	7	62.7	63	31	48	9	41%	.287	-2	1.50	4.86	4.98	4.95	8.9	4.0	6.1	1.3	4.4	0.7	1.1
2009 (age 26)	3	3	1	23	6	55.7	57	25	42	8	41%	.290	-3	1.47	4.75	4.79	4.87	9.0	3.7	6.1	1.3	4.1	0.6	0.9
2010 (age 27)	3	4	1	27	6	63.0	61	27	43	9	39%	.274	-5	1.41	4.40	4.47	4.51	8.6	3.5	5.5	1.2	5.5	1.0	1.0
2011 (age 28)	3	4	1	25	6	59.3	62	28	40	7	42%	.296	-5	1.51	4.70	4.74	4.84	9.2	3.8	5.5	1.0	3.0	0.7	0.6
2012 (age 29)	3	3	1	26	6	59.3	59	26	45	7	41%	.290	0	1.43	4.53	4.55	4.65	8.8	3.6	6.2	1.1	2.6	0.8	0.5
2013 (age 30)	3	3	1	24	5	54.0	55	23	41	8	41%	.292	-2	1.46	4.82	4.83	4.92	9.0	3.5	6.1	1.3	1.6	0.6	0.4
2014 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.234	.340	.385
vs RHB	.236	.330	.372
Split	-.002	+.010	+.013
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.1	$1,775,000	4.4	7.4
2009	0.9	$1,675,000	4.1	5.0
2010	1.0	$2,100,000	5.5	6.9
2011	0.6	$1,375,000	3.0	3.5
2012	0.5	$1,225,000	2.6	2.6
2013	0.4	$975,000	1.6	1.9
2014	0.4	$1,125,000	2.1	1.8
Peak	4.5	$5,825,000	19.5	27.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	3.52	5.18	6.56	4.95
2009	3.81	4.78	6.06	4.87
2010	3.42	4.06	6.01	4.51
2011	4.01	5.19	5.98	4.84
2012	4.00	5.13	6.62	4.65
2013	3.99	4.98	5.98	4.92
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	18%	0%	32%
2009	33%	16%	19%
2010	46%	36%	28%
2011	58%	44%	16%
2012	69%	59%	11%
2013	70%	65%	9%
2014	81%	78%	9%

64

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Lance Carter	2000	66		11	Jeremy Hill	2003	51
2	Dale Thayer	2006	62		12	Gabe Molina	2000	51
3	Leo Rosales	2007	54		13	Mark Zappelli	1992	51
4	Todd Bussa	1998	53		14	Jason Hart	1997	50
5	Todd Erdos	1999	53		15	Don Strange	1993	50
6	Mark Brandenburg	1996	53		16	Jack Cressend	2001	50
7	David Shafer	2007	52		17	Dave Borkowski	2002	49
8	Matt Whiteside	1993	52		18	Carlos Reyes	1994	48
9	Matt Stevens	1992	51		19	Jaime Cerda	2004	47
10	Carlos Guevara	2007	51		20	MIKE SOPER	1992	46

Player Comments

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2007

Medlock`s a diminutive flamethrower picked as a draft-and-follow out of a Texas juco in 2002. He can consistently deal in the 90s, then exasperate hitters with an equally effective change. The decision to move him into the pen full-time in 2006 opened up the possibility of his becoming part of the bullpen picture after some of the veterans crater this summer, but to stay he`ll have to overcome the general bias against short right-handers.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	SAR	1C	6	3	0	25	17	108.7	95	22	98	6	38%	.295	-4	1.08	3.06	4.97	5.21	9.3	3.4	4.7	1.1	4.2		1.7
2006	CHT	2A	7	2	2	42	0	63.2	54	28	70	4	49%	.306	-4	1.30	2.99	4.87	4.67	8.9	4.4	6.4	1.0	6.4		1.8
2007	CHT	2A	2	2	2	29	0	47.7	35	5	59	3	40%	.288	16	0.84	2.64	3.49	3.40	7.6	1.4	7.6	1.0	11.0		1.7
2007	LOU	3A	2	1	0	13	0	16.0	17	14	17	0	30%	.370	-12	1.94	5.63	6.50	7.20	10.8	8.4	7.2	0.0	-2.7		-0.1
2007	DUR	3A	2	0	0	9	0	15.7	9	9	8	2	35%	.167	-30	1.15	3.44	4.01	4.70	5.9	5.3	2.9	1.8	1.5		0.4

Historical Stats